Shobhit Seth 2016年1月25日
中國自2015年8月以來對人民幣進行不斷的貶值。由於中國在全球經濟中扮演著重要角色，其意外的舉動對世界各地帶來了嚴重後果。
人民幣貶值的原因
發達國家花費了很長時間才解除2008年全球經濟危機的影響，他們的經濟複蘇很慢。由於這些國家是中國出口的主要市場，緩慢的經濟複蘇導致中國產量的下降，使就業率和收入降低。因此，中國決定從制造業為主的出口導向型經濟轉變為一個國内消費和服務闆塊經濟。
然而，這一轉變需要花費很長時間達成和出現成果，中國對出口的依賴亦然顯著。通過人民幣貶值，中國使其出口商品在國際市場更具競争優勢。貨幣疲軟也使中國的進口成本增加，因此促進國内生產代替品以幫助國内產業。
對國際貿易市場的影響
貨幣貶值並不是一件新鮮事。從歐美發達國家到像印度這樣的發展中國家，都進行過貨幣貶值以緩解他們的經濟壓力。也就是說，中國的貨幣貶值可能給全球經濟帶來麻煩。由於中國是世界上最大出口國和第二大經濟體，它的任何變化都會對宏觀格局造成嚴重影響。
隨著中國商品的越來越便宜，許多中小出口驅動經濟體會發現他們的收入減少。如果這些國家債務纏身並嚴重依賴出口，他們的經濟可能受到打擊。例如，越南、孟加拉國和印度尼西亞極度依賴鞋類和紡織品的出口。中國貨幣貶值使產品在國際市場價格降低可能給他們帶來很大的麻煩。
對全球經濟的影響
為了使人民幣成為國際貨幣，中國已經對其貨幣系統自由化。例如，人民幣從以前的對美元的依賴轉變到對其貿易夥伴貨幣的加權籃子。
2015年12月，中國人民幣成功成為國際貨幣基金組織特別提款權籃子的第五個貨幣，將會在2016年10月生效。除了一般使用美元和黃金作為儲備，特別提款權也是儲備資產，因此國際貨幣基金組織成員可以在外匯市場使用本國貨幣以維持匯率。
人民幣所占的比重為10.92%，高於英鎊和日元的8.09%和8.33%。隨著人民幣成為國際儲備貨幣，其貶值將會對包括國家和大型機構在内的持有者造成重大影響。從國際貨幣基金組織借款的利率取決於特別提款權貨幣的利率，現在包括人民幣。由於匯率和利率之間的互相關聯，國際貨幣基金組織188個成員國的借款成本將部分取決於人民幣的利率和匯率。
津巴佈韋最近將人民幣添加到其合法貨幣列表，其中已經包括美元和南非蘭特。雖然這一舉動歸因於中國免除了津巴佈韋400億美元債務的政治原因，但是還是反映出人民幣在全球範圍内影響的增加。
發展與挑戰
所有的經濟大國都將貨幣轉變成了國際貨幣。現在人民幣有離岸人民幣和在岸人民幣兩個版本，中國的下一個目標是保持他們的利率接近。
人民幣的交易反映出其在國際的使用大幅增加。人民幣現在適應在任何大型國家交易，甚至是在世界銀行和國際貨幣基金這樣的組織。人民幣將很快成為一個自由使用的貨幣，從而導致更多的國際交易，使其能與美元競争。
正如之前提到的，中國的出口下降和其向消費主導經濟轉變的努力導致了最近的人民幣貶值。這些舉措似乎有一個明確的動機。例如，2015年8月的人民幣貶值伴隨著“人民幣匯率中間價將會向前一天收盤的即期匯率看齊”的宣佈，這樣做的目的是“使市場在決定人民幣匯率中起到更大作用，使人民幣進行更深層次的改革。”
中國向國内消費主導經濟過度可能遇到一些挑戰。盡管人民幣的使用正在增加，達到了國際貨幣基金組織特比提款權的標準，人民幣在全球貨幣交易中的份額仍然很低。盡管中國已經做出重大的可見舉措開放其金融市場，這一過程需要很長時間才能完成。
總結
在短期内，中國決策制定者不得不應對匯率系統改革，保持離岸人民幣和在岸人民幣匯率持平，並證明在經濟增長放緩中貨幣管理的有效性。
在長期來說，中國的經濟規模使人民幣成為自由市場國際儲備貨幣的合格候選。隨著中國進入國際舞台的中心，它需要平衡國内重點和國際責任。到那時，它可能繼續影響國際金融市場並且對後續影響做好準備。
Chinese Currency Devaluation Hits Global Economy
By Shobhit Seth | January 25, 2016
China has been devaluating its currency on occasion since August 2015. Given its greater role in the global economy, China's surprise moves are having serious repercussions around the world.
Reasons For Yuan Devaluation
Developed economies took a long time to absorb the aftershocks of the global financial crisis of 2008, with their recoveries being slow.Because these economies were major markets for Chinese exports, their sluggish recoveries led to declining production, reduced employment and falling incomes in China. In response, China decided to shift from being a manufacturing-based, export-driven economy to one built more on domestic consumption and a growing service sector.
However, such paradigm changes will take a long time to materialize and show results, and China still significantly depends on its exports. By devaluating its currency, China makes exports cheaper and gains a competitive advantage in the international markets. A weaker currency also makes China's imports costlier, thus spurring production of substitute products at home and so aiding domestic industry.
Impact On Global Trade Market
Currency devaluation is nothing new. From the U.S. and the European Union to developing nations like India, countries have devaluated their respective currencies to help cushion their economies. That said, China's devaluations could spell trouble for the global economy. Given that China is the world’s largest exporter and its second-largest economy, any change that such a large entity makes to the macroeconomic landscape will have serious repercussions.
With Chinese goods becoming cheaper, many small- to medium-sized export-driven economies may see their trade revenues reduced. And if these nations are debt-ridden and have a heavy dependence on exports, their economies could take a beating. For instance, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia greatly rely on their exports of footwear and textiles. They could be in serious trouble should China's devaluations make its goods cheaper in the global marketplace.
Impact On Global Economy
In a bid to establish the yuan as an international currency, China has been liberalizing its currency system. For instance, it moved from its former dependence on the U.S. dollar to a weighted basket of different currencies belonging to its trading partner economies.
In December 2015, China succeeded in getting the renminbi included as the fifth currency in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, which will be effective from October 2016. Along with generally adopted reserves of U.S. dollars and gold, SDR is an additional international reserve asset that IMF members can use to purchase domestic currency in foreign exchange markets in order to maintain exchange rates.
The Chinese renminbi has a weight of 10.92%, which is more than the weights of the Japanese yen (JPY) and U.K. pounds sterling (GBP), at 8.33% and 8.09%, respectively. With the renminbi recognized as an international reserve currency, its valuations could have major effects on holders, including nations and large organizations. The rate of borrowing funds from the IMF depends on the interest rate of the SDR, which will now include a Chinese instrument. As currency rates and interest rates are interlinked, the cost of borrowing from the IMF for its 188 member nations will in part hinge on China's interest and currency rates.
Zimbabwe recently added the Chinese yuan (CNY) to its legally approved currency list, which already included U.S. dollars (USD) and the South African rand (ZAR). Though this move was politically attributed to China canceling Zimbabwe’s $40 million debt, such developments indicate the growing influence of China at the global level.
Developments and Challenges
All present-day economic powerhouses have moved their currencies from domestic to international. With two versions of Chinese currencies already existing, the onshore (CNY) and the offshore (CNH), the next aim for Chinese authorities will be to keep their rates close.
Trading activity in renminbi has shown a significant rise in usage at the international level. It can now accommodate any large-value international transactions occurring even at the levels of organizations like the World Bank and the IMF. The ongoing integration of the Chinese currency should soon make it a freely usable currency, leading to more international transactions and making it competitive with the U.S. Dollar.
As mentioned earlier, China's falling exports and its efforts to move to a consumption-based economy has led it to devaluate its currency recently. The moves in some cases seemed driven by a clear motive. For instance, the surprise renminbi devaluation in August 2015 was accompanied by the announcement that the “yuan's central parity rate will align more closely with the previous day's closing spot rates," which was aimed at “giving markets a greater role in determining the renminbi exchange rate, with the goal of enabling deeper currency reform."
China's transition to a domestic-consumption based economy could encounter some challenges. Despite the increasing international usage of CNY, which is meeting set standards for inclusion in the IMF SDR, the renminbi’s share in world currency trade remains lower. Though China has made significant, visible moves to open up its financial system (like removing the U.S. dollar peg), the process will take time to complete.
The Bottom Line
In the short term, Chinese policymakers will have to deal with reforming their exchange rate system, bringing its onshore and offshore currency rates to par, and demonstrating effectiveness in managing currency valuations (or devaluations) amid its ongoing economic slump.
In the longer run, the size of the Chinese economy makes it an eligible candidate for having a free market global reserve currency. As China takes center stage at a global level, it needs to balance its domestic priorities and global responsibilities. Until then, it will likely keep sending ripples across global financial systems, and rival economies should brace themselves for the after-effects.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012516/chinese-currency-devaluation-hits-global-economy.asp