對新手日內交易員的一些警告性建議

Natasa Milas  2016年9月7日

 日內交易是一種相當有爭議的活動，是一種快速變化倉位的進進出出策略。日內交易者不被當作投資者，而是投機者。他們在以一天為週期的時間內買賣股票。日內交易者的主要目標是從一天的小規模價格波動中獲利。作為日內交易者謀生需要大量的教育和經驗，以及運氣。

我們當中的很多人都曾設想成為日內交易者並以此賺錢。這聽起來是個不錯的小工作，因為一旦成功將給我們帶來財富。但是做白日夢和日內交易是完全不同的兩回事。無經驗的日內交易者可以成功嗎？有沒有學校或者在線課程能說明日內交易呢？

日內交易的殘酷現實

Korving & Company的理財顧問Arie Korving把日內交易看成賭博。“如果目的是賺錢的話日內交易不是個好想法，”他說，“這是賭博，這個活動使你的腎上腺素激增但是實際上會浪費你的錢。”

同樣，理財顧問James B. Twining也建議不要進行任何日內交易的重大嘗試。他認為日內交易是一種娛樂。“如果你決定進行日內交易，我會把那看成一種娛樂，”他進一步警告說“把錢投入到日內交易並不是一件十分愉悅的事”。

因為與賭博類似，你做很大的夢並且有時會獲利，但是最終你註定會損失更多。是的，更多的日內交易知識和經驗可能會有所說明，但是你能變得比系統更聪明而賺錢嗎？有許多的在線學校提供說明使你成為更好的日內交易者。其中包括當Day Trading Academy、School of Trade、Maverick FX和Trading Advantage。雖然這些學院能傳授你交易的基本知識，但是他們不能給你通向成功交易的鑰匙。

WealthShape的理財顧問Timothy Baker說：“我通常會對那些出售成為獲利日內交易者方法的公司產生懷疑。畢竟，如果他們真的有產生更好結果的公式，把公式傳授給他人將會使它價值降低，因為所有人都會使用。”

Korving同樣指出：“只有那些使用這一計劃獲利的人才是唯一能傳授你這種交易機制的學校”。

神奇公式不存在

這里有幾個原因能說明成為日內交易者的複雜程度和你不能在那些承諾傳授神奇公式的學校學習到的原因。 Baker說：“日內交易是一個高度投機的活動，使你和數以百萬計尋求從基本面錯誤定價和技術分析中獲利的其他市場參與者站在對立面。為了成功，你需要相信你知道一些數百萬人都不了解的東西。為了論證，我們假設你的設想成立。你根據信息在所有人都開始行動之前採取行動的幾率是多大呢？新聞以毫秒的速度傳播使得很小的錯誤定價都能很快被消除。

再次用賭博作為類比，Twining警告日內交易是因為“日內交易者交易股票賺錢是基於他們對未來價格運動的預測”他說。“問題是沒人能預測價格運動。日內交易與賭博非常類似，日內交易者的莊家賠率就是交易成本。與許多賭博者類似，大多數日內交易者最終都會賠錢。”

積極的一面是，如果你真的對投資、了解資本市場和它的運作方式感興趣，並且真的想要從交易中獲利，金融顧問建議你成為一個投資者而不是日內交易者。Twining說：“想要持續獲利，我得建議是成為一個投資者，而不是日內交易者，因為投資者不會通過交易賺錢，而是通過持有賺錢公司的股票。一個長期持有的廣泛多樣股票投資組合幾乎肯定會升值。”

Some Cautionary Advice for the Novice Day Trader

By Natasa Milas | September 7, 2016 — 11:15 AM EDT

Day trading is a rather controversial activity, a sort of a slip and slide strategy that involves moving your position quickly. Day traders are not considered investors but speculators. They buy and sell the same stock within the duration of one day. The main objective of a day trader is to profit from small price movements in stocks during a single day. To make a living as a day trader takes a tremendous amount of education and experience — and luck.

Many of us have on one occasion or another day dreamed about becoming day traders and making some extra cash on the side. Sounds like a nice little job that may eventually bring us fortune once we get successful at it. But bridging day dreaming and day trading is another thing altogether. How successful can a non-experienced day trader be? Are there any schools or online courses that can help teach day trading?

The Harsh Truth About Day Trading

Arie Korving, a financial advisor with Korving & Company in Suffolk, Va., compares day trading with gambling. “Day trading is not a good idea if the purpose is to make money," he said. "It is gambling, an activity that provides an adrenalin rush but is virtually assured of costing you money.”

Likewise James B. Twining, a financial advisor with Financial Plan in Bellingham, Wash., advised against any serious attempt at day trading. He considers day trading a form of entertainment. “If you decide to day trade, I would do it as entertainment,” he said, further cautioning that “it is not so entertaining to throw money away on day trading.”

As it goes with gambling, you dream big and you may win sometimes, but eventually you are bound to lose more. Yes, more experience and more knowledge about trading may help, but can you learn how to outsmart the system and make money? There are many online schools offering to help you become a better day trader. Among them are Day Trading Academy, School of Trade, Maverick FX, and Trading Advantage. While these schools may teach you the basics of trading, chances are they will not sell you a key to successful trading.

Timothy Baker, a financial advisor with WealthShape in Manchester, Conn., said, "I tend to be skeptical of any company selling their methodology on becoming a profitable day trader. After all, if they truly had a formula that produced superior results, it would stand to reason that teaching it to others would only diminish its value because everyone would use it.” 

Korving similarly noted that “the only people who make money with this scheme are the 'schools' who will teach you the mechanics of trading.”

There Is No Magic Formula

Here are a few reasons that it is so complicated to be a day trader and why you cannot learn it at a school that promises to teach you a magic formula. Said Baker: “Day trading is a highly speculative endeavor that pits you against millions of other market participants seeking to profit from fundamental mispricings or technical analysis. In order to be successful, you would have to believe that you knew something that millions of others didn’t. For arguments sake, let's suggest that you did. What are the chances that you will be able to act on that information prior to everyone else? News travels in milliseconds and even small mispricings can be arbitraged away very quickly.”

Again, using an analogy with gambling, Twining warned against day trading because “day traders make money by trading securities based upon their forecasts of future price movement," he said. "The trouble is that no one can predict future price movements. Day trading is quite akin to gambling, including the ‘house odds,’ which for the day trader are the costs of trading. Most day traders lose money over time, just as most gamblers do.”

On a positive side, if you are really interested in investing, learning about capital markets and how they operate — and you really want to be profitable — financial advisors suggest becoming an investor rather than a day trader. Said Twining, “to be consistently profitable, my advice is to be an investor, not a day-trader because an investor does not make money by trading, but rather by owning profitable companies. A widely diversified portfolio of equity securities held over long time periods is almost certain to increase in value.” 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/090716/some-cautionary-advice-novice-day-trader.asp