外匯進階學習--技術分析的謬誤

很抱歉沒有任何導師、課程、文學作品會給你帶來交易聖杯。
----“沒有任何人會出售一只產金蛋的鵝，他有可能出售的是金蛋，但絕對不會是鵝。”

然而，我要謙虛的嘗試一下。從上世紀70年代至今，許多外匯界的領軍人物把他們預測的外匯走勢模式化為技術指標，並將它們公諸於衆。有些人走到了前沿去出售自己的研究成果，比如始祖查爾斯•道的道氏理論後來演變為道瓊斯指數；勒奈•笛卡爾引進了螺旋研究；列奧納多創造了斐波那契數列；威廉•江恩創造了把時間與價格完美的結合起來的理論；艾略特發現了波浪理論；威爾斯•威爾德通過上升指標（+DI）、下降指標（-DI）、平均動向指標（ADX）和相對強弱指標完成了對超買超賣的統計；此外還有隨機指標，平滑異同移動平均線（MACD）指標等等

如果誰要是把上述的研究成果加載到交易圖標上，那麼你將會看到一部很“漂亮”的藝術作品。它的雜亂無章只能讓毫無經驗的交易者眼花缭亂。又或許，圖表專家會教你使用各圖表：折線圖、柱狀圖、日本蠟燭圖、約翰•希爾的條形圖和逆轉模式、反向波點、軸心點等，雖然圖表、技術指標專家可以容易地找到很多新穎的創造性的技術、方法。但是容易忽略的是，這些顯示在交易屏幕上圖表、指標只是協助交易者的決策。

有一句格言是：圖表可以告訴你上千種信息。
“圖表並不是告訴你為什麼，而是指示賣或買。不論交易者成功或失敗，都希望交易信號顯示正確的指向。”從我這麼多年的研究成果來看，我可以說這些交易指標都有各不相同的作用，但是它們都有相同的目的：給交易者提供交易信號。

引用丘吉爾的一句話：
“你可以一直對某些人說謊，偶爾對所有人說謊，但是你不會在所有時間對所有人說謊。”
同樣的，這些研究成果可能會一直在某些某種市場行情中內作用，偶爾在所有的市場行情中起作用，但並不會一直在所有的市場行情中起作用。
好好想一想我上面引用的話。

有些交易者和技術分析師（我本人也是一名持證分析師）遇到的問題就是，他們認為指標是交易成功路上的 “聖杯”，這與真理相距甚遠。任何一個有頭腦的交易者，最終都會意識到，他們只是工具。工具是建立在歷史和滞後的資料庫之上的。並且，參數是嚴格的依據多變的市場獲取的。市場是多變的，參數是“死的”。你什麼時候看到過市場變成一個去適應交易者行為的生物？許多交易者容易忽略的是，市場是參與者交易行為的總和。這些工具只是去衡量市場的運行情況，而不是像醫生手中的溫度計、木工手中的尺子那麼準確。

那麼，這些研究成果本身怎麼可能會被認為是交易“聖杯”呢？這或許是由於交易者的無知（剛接觸、沒有經驗）、懶惰、或者僅僅是因為倔強（僅有一點知識是一件很危險的事）。至於那些僅有一點知識卻想去欺騙比他們懂得更少的人的事就要另當別論了。有些人確實如此，因為他們犯了一種最新發現的叫作“機會”疾病。如果你把技術研究作為你的聖杯，我只能送你三個字：投機者。
如果你認為技術研究不僅僅是工具的話，那麼你就陷入了交易市場的謬論。這只會把您引入更危險的境地。

許多交易者不知道或者沒有意識到成功的徵服市場是在各種條件都具備的前提下的，就像烤蛋糕一樣。我建議三個重要的條件：第一個是市場結構，第二個是你自己，最後一個是資金。當然，除此之外還有許多條件，但是現在，我個人認為以上三點尤為重要。我希望你認真的思考我說的話。如果可以的話，我將會在黑暗的隧道盡頭給你打開一扇門。

祝你好運~

Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow theory which later lead to the creation of the Dow Jones Indexes.
Rene Descarte who introduced the Spiral studies.
Leonardo Da vincci who fostered the fabonacci principles,
W.D. Gann, who introduced Cyclic Studies of Squaring time and price.
R.N.Elliot, who introduced the Elliot Wave Studies
W.Wilders.Who introduced the mathematics of calculating overbought and oversold markets by his introduction of the DI+,DI-, ADX lines and the Relative Strength Index.
The Stocastics, MACDs, ……………………………...etc

If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.

Then you have the charting specialist who have introduced many ways to chart eg,
Linear Charts, HiLoClose Bar Charts, Japanese candlestick charts, Point & Figuring, John Hill's Bar Chart congestion & reversal patterns, reverse point waves, pivots, fractuals, ………..etc

Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.

What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The maxim being, that a picture tells a thousand words.

"It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the traders to do or die,
Hoping that the signal does not lie,

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die)
If I may borrow from the quotes of Sir Winston Chirchill.
"That you can lie to some people all the time, all people some of the time, but not to all people, all the time."
Similarly, theses studies can work in some market conditions all the time, all market conditions some of the time, but not all market conditions all of the time."

Think about what I've just quoted very carefully.

The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.

How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.

Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.

I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.

What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.

I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.

regards

文章來源：http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

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