積極投資者的交易基於基本面分析、技術分析,並順應經濟週期的各個階段。積極交易與交易之前的主要區別為:
• 更長的時間框架;
• 更加註重價值;
• 分散風險;
• 較大的止損距離。
積極投資領域最具影響力的書籍是威廉.歐奈爾的《笑傲股市》和《證券投資二十四堂課》。
一、時間框架
為了避免二級趨勢震倉,積極投資關註長期趨勢或經濟週期,而普通交易者則會關註短期、中期和長期趨勢。積極投資的信號來源於如斯坦•溫斯坦的突破模式或其他市場方向指標。
二、價值
積極投資將股票的目前市場價格與盈利預期相比較,註重股票的内在價值。
a. 管理
• 管理層是否有相當大的持股?
• 員工是否與公司經營情況息息相關?通常以期權或利潤分紅的形式體現。
b. 競争力
• 審查公司的產品或服務:
與競争對手相比,公司是否具有競争力?他們是否有更好的技術、品牌、版權、專利或更強的專業能力
c. 表現
• 每股價格是否在過去的3到5年迅速增長?
• 分紅是否在持續增長?分紅增長表明公司正在產生現金流,而不是賬面上的利潤。
• 每股銷售額和收益在過去幾個季度是否都在加速增長?
• 警惕由於削減成本和裁員帶來的短期收益,因為這會使長期收益大打折扣。
d. 股價收益
• 市盈率/每股盈利增長率(PEG)小於1.0,表明適合做多。
• PEG值小於0.5,強烈的做多信號。
Active Investing
Active investors combine fundamental and technical analysis, moving in and out of the market in accordance with the phases of the business cycle.
The major differences between active investing and trading are:
• A longer time frame;
• Increased emphasis on value;
• Risk diversification; and
• Stop-losses set with higher loss limits, because of the emphasis on value and diversification.
The most influential author in the active investing field is William J O'Neil, author of How to Make Money in Stocks and 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success.
Time Frames
Active investing concentrates on the primary trend or business cycle and tries to avoid being shaken out bysecondary cycle fluctuations. Traders may focus on short, secondary or primary trends.
Active investing focuses on long-term market signals, using trading systems such as Stan Weinstein's breakout model. Other long-term market direction systems are discussed in Reading The Market.
Value
Active investing emphasizes fundamental stock values, comparing earnings prospects to the current market price:
Management
• Does management have sizable stock holdings?
• Do employees have a real stake in the business? Normally in the form of options or profit-sharing arrangements.
Competitive Strength
• Examine the company's products or services:
Does the company have a competitive edge? Do they have better technology, stronger brands, copyrights, patents or greater expertise that gives them an advantage over their competitors?
Performance
• Have sales and earnings per share grown strongly over the past 3 to 5 years?
• Has there been consistent growth in dividends?
This is a good indication that the company is generating cash flow and not just paper profits.
• Have sales and earnings per share growth accelerated in recent quarters?
• Be on the alert for cost reductions and layoffs that may enhance short-term performance at the expense of long-term growth.
Price-Earnings
Compare earnings prospects to the current price. The PEG Ratio is a handy formula:
Divide the current Price-Earnings Ratio by the expected long-term growth rate (in earnings per share).
• A PEG ratio less than 1.0 signals a buy opportunity.
• Ratios of 0.5 or less are strong buy signals.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源:http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/active_investing.php