前面我已經提到很多次，任何自由市場的價格波動都是供給與需求之間不斷尋求平衡所致。當這種簡單、直截了當的均衡“失去平衡”的時候，交易機會便產生了。在任何一個市場中，當供給和需求出現嚴重不平衡時，意義價格便會在當前的價位發生改變。作為市場投資者的關鍵是有能力識別價格圖表上的交易機會。最低的風險，最高的回報，以及最有可能進場做多的時間，比如，在價格低於供給曲線（需求大於供給）時做多。在這些價格水平買入，利潤空間達到最大化，並且風險低。不幸的是，價格不會跌到我們希望的位置，即使達到，它也不會長久。當然，這是因為需求遠大於供給。
需要考慮的另外一件事是市場價格是如何以及為什麼會跌到期望位置。消息事件越強勁，交易者對消息的感知也就越大。感知越強烈，買賣交易也就越多，價格波動也就越劇烈。上週五的美聯儲決議，盡管消息並不是完全的出乎意料，但是仍然造成價格大幅度、迅速的波動。
許多交易者問我關於消息（諸如美聯儲的利率決議等消息）交易的一個同樣問題：他們是否應該在消息發佈之前平掉所有倉位。對此我有兩個答案，第一，如果你是一個新手，且不知道如何識別真實的市場供給，那麼在消息事件發佈時不宜交易。第二，如果你很擅長識別真實的市場供給平衡位置，你真切地期待消息的發佈，那麼你就可以交易。就價格波動而言，消息只會加速即將發生的事。
上圖中的納斯達克期貨在聯邦決議之前，價格大幅下跌到我們的“期望交易區間”。接下來，價格從交易區間處快速上升。不論消息結果如何，是否強勁，價格波動都僅僅是供給不平衡導致，是一個簡單的數字遊戲。
華爾街告訴我們，你不能確認市場的轉折點，這只是在浪費時間。如果一個普通的交易者可以預測市場的轉折點，那麼沒有人需要華爾街。而我認為，任何一個人都可以像我們預測納斯達克期貨一樣預測市場的轉折點，並不是說我們在確定每一個市場轉折點的時候都是正確的。通過我們的規則，我可以說一個普通的交易者可以很精確地預測市場轉折點。
Trading the Fed News
As I have written about so many times, the movement of price in any and all free markets is simply a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Trading opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is “out of balance.” Meaning prices turn at price levels where supply and demand are most out of balance, in any market. The key for the market speculator is to have the ability to identify what this picture of opportunity looks like on a price chart. The lowest risk, highest reward, and highest probability time to buy into a market, for example, is to buy at price levels way down on the supply/demand curve where demand exceeds supply. At these price levels profit margins to the upside are huge and the risk is low. Unfortunately, price does not fall to these types of desired levels as much as we would like and when it does, it doesn’t stay their long. Of course, this is because demand exceeds supply in such a big way.
Another thing to consider is how and why prices in markets fall to these desired sale prices. The stronger the news event, the greater mass perception is created. The stronger the mass perception, the more buying and selling happens and this moves price. Last week we had a Fed day. While the news was not all that unexpected, price moved fast and far.
Many traders ask me the same question regarding news days like the Fed day. They ask if they should pull their orders from the market around news events like the Fed news day last week and not trade. I have two answers… first, if you’re new to trading and don’t know how to identify real supply and demand in the markets, don’t trade around news events (don’t trade period). Second, if you are good at identifying real supply and demand in a market, you really want to be ready with orders in the market around news events. When it comes to price movement the news typically speeds up what was going to happen anyway. As you can see on the NASDAQ Futures chart above, just prior to the Fed announcement, price declined in somewhat strong fashion right into our demand zone from that mornings supply/demand grid. Next, price exploded away from that demand zone. Whatever the news is, however strong it is, the movement of price is always a function of pure supply and demand, a simple numbers game.
Wall Street tells us that you can’t time the market’s turning points and that it’s a waste of time. Of course they tell us that. If the average person could time the market’s turning points no one would need Wall Street. I would argue that the average person can time the market’s turning points like we did with the NASDAQ. It’s not that we are always right and can pick every turning point in a market. With our rules however, I would argue that the average person can time the market’s turning points with a very high degree of accuracy.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/lessons-from-the-pros/2015/03/24/