從第一次進行交易的交易員到積累了幾十年經驗的交易員，都會問這樣一個問題,什麼是基於預期和基於確認的正確的平衡？我的答案是：抓住這個問題的中心詞。
我所遇到的大多數成功的交易員都是偉大的計劃者和預期者。他們排列結構、支撐和阻力水平、指標、模式、概率(等等），以便能讓交易產生積極的結果。
這不意味著他們在所有時間都必須正確，對你也一樣。事實上，我經歷過一些由最初計劃和入市是錯誤的交易產生的驚人利潤，因為隨著時間的推移，市場的確效仿了原來的分析並提供了所需要的方向。在這一點上，所有的問題就是如何控制我們的利潤。
對交易員來說這是一個神奇的問題。“我怎樣才能控制好我的利潤？”比“我怎樣找到盈利的交易？”要好的多。
市場朝他們各自的節奏、波浪和趨勢運動。我們作為交易員發現一些特定的工具有他們自己的趨勢性和特點。一些市場像跳華爾茲一樣輕輕旋轉，另一些則跳霹靂舞，甚至有一些則狂舞。如果其中有一種能適應你的特定策略，你就會有利可圖。更好的是，你的交易計劃能使你大多數的婚禮音樂播放員變得恭順。
我喜歡利用那些有利於我的交易風格和策略的市場行為。需要時間和精力去辨認這些特徵。他們可能不是在每個市場和金融工具上都存在，但是他們足夠我們以重複的模式和特性進行我們計劃好的交易。這個對我很合適，所以說對大多數對大多數交易員都合適。不要讓任何人告訴你相反的一面。
知道什麼時間預期和確認
那麼交易員怎麼知道何時去預期合適去確認呢？在我坦誠的觀點看來，這完全取決於你自己。
當你做計劃的時候預期是重要的。執行時確認是必要的。一個交易僅僅是一個規模、範圍和難度不同的交易。
有時在和一些失敗的或者我必須去結束的預期交易鬥争之後，我就只有很少的交易確認去做。然後，我就會因為進行這麼少的交易而無聊的要發瘋，我覺得我因為恪守確認而走在了機會前面。其他時候，我會很高興我通過了預期交易並等待確認，特別是我通過等待確認避免了頑固運動造成的壓力和不安。
為你的交易做計劃並按計劃交易
當我們準備一個計劃的時候，我們的自我暗示可能是自信或者恐懼。如果你進行了交易記錄並目睹了市場趨勢，你就有一段它喜歡怎樣表現的歷史。這並不意味這它總是這樣或者他永遠不會使你失望，暗示它會產生你喜歡的重複體質。這將使你的交易充滿信心，知道你以前的交易運作，這樣它再次出現時你就不會吃驚。如果交易不向你預期的進行，相信我，這裡有其他交易。
你可能已經聽過下面的格言無數次：“為你的交易做計劃並按計劃交易”。理論上,這是偉大的和真實的,但在現實中,有時我們需要計劃(複數),在其他情況下我們需要有計劃a、b、c。如果你已經有一個計劃並且它在任何時間都表現良好，那麼無論如何都要堅持下去不要偏離他。
就我個人而言，我已經嘗試了千篇一律的方法，但是它並不符合我的胃口。也許是我過度交易、交易不足或者僅僅是沒有看到結果，所以我擴展我的策略目錄並增加我的效率。請明白，這不是對帶有沖突策略過度交易交易員的全權委托。一個極其困難的任務是克服涉獵的沖動策略，避免缺乏深入廣泛調查的策略轉移。
評估你的成功
在我作為交易員的過程中，一旦我意識到改變交易計劃不能給我帶來更高的回報，我開始尋找我進行的最好和最壞交易的共同點。這個評估和正反兩方面評估沒什麼不同。我的正面是盈利交易，我的反面是受損交易或者不愉快交易。我的策略列表可能有一點小的臉部改變，但是我小心使用肉毒桿菌，因為基本原則是相同的且計劃是相似的。小心不要創建一個發出互相矛盾信號使你沒有方向感的奇怪策略。如果你發現自己在玩水的時候，請記住，你可以回到繪圖闆，專註於一個單一的基礎。
我們都希望市場能到達我們期望方向的最大精度，但是我最後一次陳述，畢竟我們都不是做市商。事實上，如果我們的計劃如此正確，我們為什麼不尋找頂部和底部或者最高點和最低點呢？事後諸葛亮人人都會且在事實發生後交易看起來會容易很多，但是為了信任的右側圖表(即未來價格走勢)，我們需要經歷必要的重複給我們的設置和交易提供信心。
預期和確認在這裡交匯。我的交易當然不能打本壘打、一桿進洞或者正中靶心，但是對於安全打、標準桿和命中目標來說已經足夠成功了。（另見，五分鐘投資：怎樣評估一個投資策略）。
總結
我們不是做市商，我們只是鲨魚上的?魚，鳄魚身上的千鳥。為什麼用這些生物比喻呢？因為太多的交易員認為市場是危險和致命的。盡管市場能制造痛苦和壓力並吞噬受害者一定的部分，但是我們認識到了它的兇殘，我們仍然能在他的不良情緒中生存，並在這一過程中尋找到一些有利可圖的面包屑。
Anticipation vs. Confirmation for Today’s Forex Trader
From the time they place that first trade to the time they’ve accumulated decades of experience under their belts, many traders ask, what is the right balance between placing trades based on anticipation versus trades based on confirmation? My suggestion: tackle this question head-on.
The most successful traders I have met are usually great planners and great anticipators. They align structure, support and resistance levels, indicators, patterns, probabilities (the list goes on), in order to place trades that yield positive results.
This does not mean that they have to be right all of the time, and neither do you. In fact, I have experienced some amazing profits by initially being wrong with my first setup and entry, but with time, the market did in fact follow suit with the original analysis and provided the needed direction. At that point, it is all a matter of how well we can manage our profits.
This is a fantastic problem to have as a trader. “How well can I manage my profits?” is a far better issue than “how can I find winning trades?”.
The markets will move to their respective rhythms, waves, and trends. We as traders notice that certain instruments have their own tendencies and characteristics. Certain markets waltz, while others break-dance, and some might even mosh. If one of those styles fit your particular strategy, you could be profitable. Better yet, maybe you have trading plans that will humble your most diverse wedding DJ.
I love exploiting market behaviors that are conducive for my trading style and strategies. It took time and effort to identify these attributes. This may not be in every market or every financial instrument, but it is enough to trade repetitive patterns and traits in order to only take the trades that set up according to my plan. It works for me and that is probably a saying that most traders should enjoy making their own. Do not let anyone tell you otherwise. (For more, read: How To Start Trading: Trading Styles.)
Knowing when to anticipate or confirm
So how does a trader know when it is time to anticipate and time to confirm? In my honest opinion, it is completely up to you.
Anticipation is great when you are planning. Confirmation is necessary when you are executing. A trade is just a trade in a sample of many trades of varying size, scope, and difficulty.
Sometimes after fighting some anticipation trades that went awry or that I had to work through, I have a spell of only trading confirmation. Then, I am crazy bored by taking so few trades that I feel like I am foregoing opportunities because of my commitment to confirmation. Other times, I am very pleased I passed on the anticipation trade and waited for confirmation, particularly when a stubborn move would have caused some stress and uneasiness, extra stress I avoided by waiting for confirmation. (See also, Why is confirmation on a chart important when evaluating a trade strategy?)
Plan your trade and trade your plan
When traders are preparing for a setup, our self-talk is either confident or fearful. If you have logged your trades and witnessed the market’s tendencies, you have a history with the market that has exhibited what it likes to do. It does not mean it will always do this or that it will never fail you on occasion, but it will produce repetitive setups that tip the probabilities in your favor. This allows you to trade with confidence, knowing you have seen the trade work before so it would not surprise you to see it work again. If this trade does not work to your liking, believe me, there will be other trades.
You have probably heard the following adage time and time again: It goes, “plan your trade and trade your plan.” In theory, it is great and true, but in reality, sometimes we need to have plans (plural) and have a PLAN A/B/C in other cases. If you have one plan and it is working all of the time, by all means, stick to it and do not deviate from something that is working well.
Personally, I have tried the cookie-cutter approach and it did not pan out to my liking. Maybe I was over-trading, not trading enough, or just was not seeing the results, so I started to expand my strategic catalog to increase my effectiveness. Please understand that this is not carte blanche to overload traders with conflicting strategies. One incredibly difficult task is overcoming the urge to dabble and jump from system to system and strategy to strategy without due diligence and extensive vetting. (For more, see the Investopedia Guide to Stock-Picking Strategies.)
Evaluating your success
In my journey as a trader, once I realized the dabbling with the trading plan was not helping me see higher returns, I began searching for commonalities with my best and worst trades. This assessment is no different than evaluating pros and cons. My pros were winning trades, my cons were losing trades or less enjoyable trades. My strategic list may have received a little face-lift, but I went easy on the BOTOX because the fundamental principles are the same and the setups are similar. Be careful not to create a strategy monster that will send conflicting signals leaving you paralyzed and directionless. If you find yourself dabbling, remember, you can always go back to the drawing board and focus on a simple foundation.
We all want the market to move to our liking with utmost precision, but last time I checked, we are not market makers to any degree. In fact, if our planning was so great, why are we not calling the perfect tops and bottoms or highs and lows? Hindsight is 20/20 and trading is certainly easier after the fact, but in order to trust the right side of the chart (i.e. future price action), we need to have tested and/or experienced the repetition necessary to give us the confidence to take the setup and the trade.
This is where anticipation meets confirmation. My trading certainly is not about hitting home runs, hole-in-ones, or bull’s-eyes, but it is successful enough for base hits, greens in regulation, or consistent marks. (See also, Five Minute Investing: How To Evaluate A Trading Strategy.)
The Bottom Line
If we are not the market makers, we are merely the remora on the shark, or the plover bird on the crocodile. Why use those specific organisms? Because too many traders feel the market is dangerous and deadly. Although the market is certainly capable of causing grief and stress and has taken its fair share of victims, as long as you respect its ferocity, we can still survive its bad moods and find some profitable crumbs in the process. In fact, we may even be incredibly profitable during these times of tantrum. I encourage you to find your balance between anticipation and confirmation and arm yourself with strategies that you trust and have seen work time and again.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/050115/anticipation-vs-confirmation-todays-forex-trader.asp