什麼都不做的藝術——管理你的投資

“不要低估什麼都不做的價值”  - Winnie the Pooh
在現代的投資公司，管理專員總是不遺餘力地顯示他們是多麼的忙碌。心理學家給出的技術術語是“引人註目地忙碌”。他們是受到24/7小時“重要的”金融新聞的刺激。當然，這是新聞記者的一部分工作——CNBC主持人需要尋找有趣的談資來愉悅他們的觀衆。市場觀察日報的記者需要每隔幾小時更新頭條。投資者非常樂意地上鈎，他們不斷追隨這些報道，並展示他們對新數據的理解。如果你能顯示出你是根據數據交易，這看起來似乎更好！但是對於一個嚴肅的、“引人註目地忙碌”的投資者來說，他註意力分散在上述事情中對於他真正地獲取盈利非常危險的。

這種情況讓我想起了《賽車大賽》這一部電影里的場景裡面的Dastardly以及Muttley。我發現，不論我觀看多少次，我都能像一個孩子似的莫名地被逗樂。Dastardly快要從懸崖邊緣墜落的時候，他向Muttley喊到，“不要只站在那，做些什麼！！”Muttley站在懸崖邊上，凝視了一會之後就開始跳起習慣性的舞蹈動作。（從下一場景可以看出，摔落懸崖並不是Dastardly的厄運，他又站了起來並且可以跑。）

作為投資者社交網路的創始人，你或許會覺得我推薦較少的工作是一件很奇怪的事。我們不想投資行為是在犧牲別的活動時間的情況下進行的。如果你想，可以有很多別的社交網路，比如Twitter或Stock Twits。相對於數量來說，我們網站更註重的是質量。

似乎很多投資者並不欣賞這一點，但每年一或兩個偉大的想法比上百個平庸的想法有意義的多。100萬資產用於交易100個平庸的想法，得到的仍然是平庸的回報！這也就是為什麼我們鼓勵交易者提出他們有較高信心的建議。

 “當機會來臨時你再做些什麼。我人生中有些時間會有各種想法噴湧而出，我也有思維枯竭的時候。下週如果我有一個想法，我會做些什麼。如果沒有，我不會做出任何蠢事”Warren Buffett

你沒有交易不代表你沒有工作。事實上，你需要一直去努力尋找新的機會，並根據你所掌握的知識來衡量這些機會的價值。一個優秀的投資者就像滑過水面的天鵝——所有的工作都是在水下進行。盡管努力做出的工作不被外界感知，但最終的結果是強大的。不幸的是，很多投資者像狗一樣跳入河中去追尋河面上的一根木棒。在河的表面能看到它所作出的大量努力，但是進展緩慢。買賣分析師的實際情況或許更糟。

 “分析師的建議可能不會產生好結果，部分原因是來自他們的壓力。他們頻繁地而不是明智地作出交易決策”—— Seth Klarman

大型銀行的賣方分析師通常被要求對整個行業進行“海灘報道”。意思是，他們需要報道一定數量的股票——通常在10到30只股之間。為了在客戶面前發表觀點並誘使客戶交易，他們在改變建議股票方面有很大的壓力。海灘模式的問題迫使分析師在他們所分析的小型股票集合中編故事，即使這個故事非常不可信。真正的機會可能來自別處，但是分析師沒有理由去追尋它們，因為他們沒有墜入自己的宇宙。

作為前基金經理，我非常迫切地從這種老舊的、破碎的模式中擺脫出來。在StockView這個平台上，可信度是你結果生成的一個函數，而不是你帖子的評論或者追隨者的數量。分析師沒有被強制去覆蓋每一個部門，他們可以自由地分析機會。這就產生了一個讓分析師註重交易結果的系統，而不是試圖去顯示他們是如何的“忙碌”。
“引人註目地忙碌”在如此大的壓力下有時感覺不採取行動是十分困難的。但是，一個偉大的投資者總是願意違背大衆趨勢，如果他們需要，他們可以什麼都不做！

The Art Of Doing Nothing - Managing Your Investments
By Tom Beevers of StockViews
Friday, May 29, 2015 7:41 AM EDT

“Don’t underestimate the value of doing nothing”  - Winnie the Pooh
In a modern-day investment firm, the front-office professionals are always at pains to demonstrate how insanely busy they are. The technical term for this given by psychologists is “Conspicuous Industriousness”. They are spurred on by a financial press that supplies a 24/7 stream of “critical news”. Of course this is part of the job for journalists– CNBC anchors need to find something exciting to talk about with their guests. MarketWatch journalists are required to come up with a new headline every few hours. Investors are all too happy to take the bait in their attempt to show they have absorbed and interpreted the new data. If you can show that you traded on that data, it looks even better! But for a serious investor “conspicuous industriousness” can be a dangerous distraction from the real job of generating returns.
The situation often reminds me of a scene from “Wacky Races” featuring Dastardly and Muttley.  I found it unreasonably hilarious as a kid, no matter how many times I watched it. Dastardly is about to fall from a cliff and he calls out to Muttley “Don’t just stand there, Muttley, do something!!” Muttley, standing on the edge of the cliff, ponders this for a moment and then breaks into a dance routine as Dastardly falls to his doom (well, not to his doom because he seems to be up and running again in the next scene)
As the founder of a social network for investors, you might find it strange for me to encourage less activity. But at StockViews, we don’t want to encourage activity for activity’s sake. If you want that, there are plenty of alternative networks, like Twitter or StockTwits. Our community is more concerned with quality over quantity.
Many investors don’t seem to appreciate this point, but two or three great ideas each year are better than a hundred mediocre ones. A million dollars spread over 100 mediocre ideas still generates mediocre returns! This is why we encourage users to make recommendations where they have a high level of conviction.
“You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing”  Warren Buffett
Just because you’re not trading doesn’t mean you’re not working. In fact you should always be working hard to find new opportunities and to evaluate those opportunities against what you already hold. A good investor is like a Swan gliding across the water – all the activity is going on under the water. Although the hard work is not visible to the outside world, the end result is a powerful one. Unfortunately a lot of investors look like a dog thrashing through the water in pursuit of a stick. There is plenty of work apparent on the surface, but little progress. Sell-side analysts are even worse:
“Analysts recommendations may not produce good results. In part this is due to the pressure placed on these analysts to recommend frequently rather than wisely”  - Seth Klarman
At large banks, sell-side analysts are usually required to have “waterfront coverage” of an entire sector. This means that they need to maintain coverage of a certain number of stocks – usually between ten and thirty. In order to get their views in front of clients, and to get the clients trading, there is a strong pressure to change their recommendation frequently. The problem with the waterfront model is that the analyst is forced to create stories within the subset of stocks they cover, even if there is no conviction behind it. The real opportunities may be going on elsewhere, but the analyst has no reason to chase them because they don’t fall into their universe.
As an ex-fund manager I was eager to move away from this old (and broken) model. On the StockViews platform, credibility is a function of the result you generate, not the frequency of your posts or the number of followers you have. Analysts are not forced to cover one sector, but free to go wherever they see opportunities. This leads to a system where analysts focus on the result they generate, rather than constantly trying to appear ‘busy’.
With so much pressure for “Conspicuous Industriousness” it can sometimes feel difficult not to “take action”. But a great investor will always be willing to go against the crowd and, if they need to, will do precisely nothing!

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/investing-ideas--strategies/the-art-of-doing-nothing-managing-your-investments?post=65838&page=3