專業人士分享自己的投資故事以及經驗教訓
Morgan Barnard，2015.3.2
我們都會犯錯誤並時常後悔，當所犯錯誤涉及到大量的金錢的時候，結果通常會更糟糕。幸運的是，你最後總會得到經驗教訓，就像女演員Stella Adler所說，“如果你不從失敗中吸取教訓，那麼你就只會失敗。”
貨幣網（Moneyweb）找到了一些那些曾經沒有就金錢做出正確選擇的成功投資者。我們要求他們與讀者分享自己的教訓，這樣讀者就能夠獲得前車之鑒。
不斷地評估你的投資
首先與我們分享經驗的是Gradidge-Mahura 投資公司的財務規劃和投資顧問Craig Gradidge。
他告訴貨幣網：我所做的一筆糟糕的投資是非洲銀行BBBEE（《廣義振興黑人經濟法》）股份計劃。在我詳細了解之前，我認為首先坦率地聲明“投資本質上是一個風險的活動，並且你有可能會一錯再錯”這一點很重要。需要註意的重要事情是投資的決策是否充分分析並使風險最小化。當我投資非洲銀行時，該筆投資有很大的價值型。第一階段我的投資本金增長了6倍。然而，我接下來的評估失敗了。我沒有對這筆投資或者我投資組合中的任何一筆投資進行一次足夠誠實的審查。我沒有對客戶甚至自己盡到職責。作為一個長期投資者，我通常認為我不需要回顧自己的倉位，但是殘酷的現實告訴我，我必須這麼做。隨著我在非洲銀行投資的惡化，我應該取出自己的本金以及部分盈利，只將剩下的部分用於投資。那樣的話，我就不會陷入倉位虧損，如果非洲銀行的投資好轉，我也將會有充足的本金。在惡化的過程中，我有至少機會將我的本金取回。同時，我從這次失敗投資經歷中學到的教訓也很重要。
不要相信炒作
下面一位是Simon Brown，Justonelap.com的創始人。
Brown告訴貨幣網：“大概在1998年，在Brainware公司首次公開募股的時候我以每只RI的價格買入了2000股。在互聯網經濟泡沫的時候，它們的價格達到了R6，接下來泡沫破裂了。然而在泡沫和炒作的情況下，我卻什麼也沒做。我很肯定，這只股票將會飛向月球，我會搭乘那輛公共汽車。然而，這只股票持續地下跌、調整、下跌。隨後，這只股票被納米比亞的一家電力公司收購，而價格仍然沒有變化。在2013年，這只股票退市。我只獲得了大概R120的回報。這不僅是長達15年的大量的虧損，而且，如果我將這筆資金放到銀行，我的本金將會翻倍。
我的教訓很簡單，別相信任何形式的炒作。一直保持懷疑態度，知道你錯了或者受挫之後平倉。R6之後的任何平倉價格我都將會獲得更多的利潤。一直有一個平倉、止損計劃。”
沒有輕而易舉得來的資金
Karl Gevers向我們分享了他的兩個悲劇性的投資故事。Karl Gevers是一個投資經理並且是本格拉全球研究主管
“第一個：當我是一個學生的時候，我沒有足夠的錢投資股票，所以我交易權證。黃金股非常的不穩定，所以權證每天的振幅很大。我很快就實現了翻倍（在校圖書館外操作）。但是當波動性枯竭的時候，我的權證因長時間持有而價值受到侵蝕價值。
經驗教訓：
1、沒有快速盈利的方式…衍生品具有投機性質和危險性。
2、如果你的本金虧損了50%，那麼你需要上漲100%才能回到原來的水平。
第二個投資故事：在約翰内斯堡股票交易所的一些失敗的私人投資是Transhex, BSI 鋼鐵廠 以及歐洲精細化工（Chemspec）。這三個的共同點是它們都是低流通性的小股票，並且管理層承諾會扭轉該局面。
經驗教訓：
1、 低股價的股票通常有很高虧損的風險，因為它們的便宜是有原因的。
2、 要關註那些可以讓企業產生資本回報的強大競争優勢，比如高質量業務。
3、 好轉的情況下有更大的未知風險，或者它們需要更長時間、更多的股東資本。
4、 缺少流動性是平倉的最大風險（未上市投資更是如此）。
我現在專註於將更多的資金投入到那些優質企業，這些企業有更大的潛力，而且能夠持續地產生回報。我們將重點放在企業的質量上。我們根據企業品質以及估值作出投資決定，並争取為我們的客戶獲得最優的風險調整回報。我們的首要任務是保護資本。
我們的投資過程和投資哲學是由上面的一些經驗發展而來。我最大的投資錯誤是2002年購買的Capitec股票…即使當價格低於R2的時候我在財務部工作了6個月，我還是錯過了一個200裝袋器！
沒有如果、但是和也許
最後，Garth Mackenzie與貨幣網分享了他的寶貴經驗：
我剛剛關閉並提現了我迄今為止做過的最差的交易。我想我應該寫下這次經驗，我希望無論是誰讀到這篇文章都可以從中學到教訓，不再犯下相同的錯誤。
這筆投資是位於津巴佈韋叫做黎明的屬性（Dawn Properties）的公司。我在2007年牛市結束之前的泡沫時期進行的該筆投資。我當時職務是央行股票經紀人，我們當時帶領一群人去維多利也瀑佈遊玩，接著我們被帶往津巴佈韋的股票經紀公司。在那裡，一系列的投資專業以及分析師向我們兜售津巴佈韋資產在總統Robert Mugable政府領導下是如何被低估的故事。思路是Mugable的統治權力正在減少。即使他一直掌權，但是他的年齡增長也不利於他的繼續執政，該國很有可能看到一個更加光明的未來。
我投資的公司——黎明的屬性——是掌控有津巴佈韋最優秀旅遊資產的公司。購買該公司股票的原因是旅遊業將會比政治恢複得要迅速，並且該筆投資資產負債表上的保險替換值是整個公司市值的兩倍。因此，我是以低於該公司有形資產價值的價格買入的，而沒有考慮津巴佈韋的旅遊業將如何恢複。
所以，我投資R500 000到黎明屬性整個公司，並且寄好安全帶等待這它快速增值。
7年很快過去了，津巴佈韋的投資沒有任何變化，尤其是旅遊業。Mugabe仍然不擇手段地統治著津巴佈韋，而且經濟也一直疲軟。
我的投資一直流動性不足，並且很難賣出。但是我在上週順利地清倉並且七年來虧損R233 000或者是47%。
我認為考慮投資黎明屬性的根本原因是合理的。但讓我生氣的是，我07年作出該決定根本上基於一系列的“如果”、“但是”、“或許”等的一個賭註。而這些術語不應該在作出實際投資決定時發揮作用。
誠然，這是一場賭博，一場最終未能取得回報的賭博。
當我進行該筆投資時，我是27歲。現在我34了。我仍然有足夠多的積累大量財富的時間，所以，這次虧損不是世界末日。
我的真正錯誤是我應該更好地知道並堅持合理的投資原則：以長期眼光看待一系列高概率投資結果。而不是如果、但是以及或許。這次虧損是可接受的。但是真正難以接受的是這項投資的機會成本。有幾個可以做出更安全、更良好的投資機會，即使考慮2008年和2009年的市場崩潰也可以帶來更好的回報。
想象一下如果我當時是以每股R23.00的價格投資沃爾沃斯公司（自從那時起升值了250%），或者以每股R37的價格投資阿斯彭(自從那時起升值了800%）。這些只是2007年那些產生豐厚回報公司的兩個例子。
一個共同的想法是年輕的時候你可以承擔更大的風險，因為你有很多的時間來修正之前犯下的過錯。這實際上是錯誤的，因為人們通常會在沒有必要的高風險情況下做出糟糕的投資決定。相對立的論點是，你年輕的時候有更多的時間，因此一個緩慢而穩定的財富積累方法對於你來說更適用，並會隨著時間的增長產生更大的回報，而不需要承擔更多不必要的風險。
Failures of a successful investor
Professionals share their war stories and lessons learnt
Morgan Barnard | 2 March 2015 08:27
We have all made mistakes and have a few regrets but the problem becomes more serious when there are large amounts of money involved. Thankfully there is always a lesson to be learnt at the end just as acctress Stella Adler said: “You will only fail to learn if you do not learn from failing.”
Moneyweb scouted out some successful investors who have made some not so successful choices when it came to their money. We asked them to share their lessons with our readers, who might be able to learn from their mistakes.
Keep assessing your investments
First up is Craig Gradidge (pictured), director of Gradidge-Mahura Investments. Gradidge carries out financial planning and investment consulting.
He tells Moneyweb: “The one ‘bad investment’ that I made has to be my investment in African Bank’s (Abil) BBBEE share schemes. Before I go into any detail though, I think it is important to state upfront that investing is inherently a risky activity and one will get things wrong from time to time. The important thing to note is the decision making processes involved, and whether or not those were robust enough to mitigate the risks associated with investing in anything. When I invested in the Abil BBBEE shares (Eyomhlaba and Hlumisa) there was a lot of value to be had from the investments. At one stage I was up over 600% on my Eyomhlaba investment. However, it was my ongoing assessment of the investment that failed. I did not at any time conduct an honest enough review of that investment, or any other investment in my portfolio. While this is something I do with my own clients, it is something I failed to do for myself. As a long-term investor I often feel that I do not have to review my positions, but this was a brutal reminder that I in fact have to do so as well. As the investment case for Abil deteriorated, I should have taken my initial investment plus some return off the table, and left the remainder invested. That way I would not have been in a position of loss, and if Abil had managed to turn things around, I would still have had some exposure.
The Abil story has not fully played out, so there is still a chance that I may at least get my capital back. In the meantime it is important that I do not lose the lesson from that experience.”
Don’t believe in hype
Next up was Simon Brown, founder of Justonelap.com.
Brown told Moneyweb: “Way back, about 1998, I bought some shares in an IPO for Brainware, where I bought 20 000 shares at R1 each.
During the course of the dot com boom they ran to R6 but then the bubble burst. I did nothing as I was blinded by the bubble and the hype. This stock was going to the moon, and I would be on that bus. Most definitely.
However it continued to crash. Hit 1c and did a 50 to 1 consolidation and started to crash again.
Eventually it was taken over by Southern Electrical Company, a Namibian power company and the price still did nothing.
In 2013 the stock delisted and I received around R120 from my initial R20 000 investment. Not only was it 15 years of pain and a massive loss the money, it would have doubled a few times if I had just stuck it in the bank.
My lessons are simple, don’t believe the hype, any hype. Always remain skeptical.
Know when you’re wrong or beaten and exit.
Any selling price on the way down from R6 would have netted me more profit. Always have an exit plan / stop loss.”
No easy money
Karl Gevers had two tragic investment stories to share with us. Karl Gevers is an investment manager and head of research at Benguela Global.
“First one: When I was a student, I did not have enough money to invest in stocks, so I traded warrants (that had just become a big thing in SA). Gold stocks especially were very volatile, so the warrants would swing by massive amounts every day. I quickly doubled my money (operating out of the university library). But as volatility dried up, I held onto some warrants too long with time decay destroying any value.
Lessons learnt:
1. There is no quick way to make a buck… and derivatives are speculative and dangerous!
2. If you lose 50% of your capital, you need to make 100% to get back to the original level.
Second one: Some personal investments on the JSE that went bad are Transhex, BSI Steel and Chemspec. What all three have in common are that they are small, low-quality businesses with management trying and promising to turn the business around.
Lesson Learnt:
1. Cigar butt investing actually has a high risk of destroying capital because these businesses are generally cheap for a reason.
2. Rather focus on businesses that have strong competitive advantages which enable them to generate returns on their capital i.e. higher quality businesses.
3. Turnaround situations have a high risk of never materialising, or they take longer, requiring more shareholder capital.
4. Lack of liquidity is a significant risk when trying to exit the investment (this is more so in unlisted investments).
I now rather focus on investing more capital in high-quality businesses that might have less upside than some deep value situations, but are able to continuously generate returns.
We at Benguela put a lot of emphasis on the quality of a business. While we look at upside potential (valuation), we also include the quality dimension into our investment decision making to get the best risk adjusted returns for our clients. Our top priority is to preserve capital.
Our investment process and philosophy have developed through experiences such as these mentioned above.
My biggest investment error was back in 2002, where I did not buy Capitec shares… Even though I worked in the finance department for six months while the share price was below R2. I missed out on a 200 bagger!”
No ifs, buts and maybes.
Finally Garth Mackenzie from Traders Corner shared this gem with Moneyweb:
I’ve just cashed up and closed the worst investment I have ever made. I thought I’d write about this experience to extract the lessons that I have learned, in the hope that whoever reads this article might take the lessons on board and avoid making the same mistakes that I did.
The investment was in a company called Dawn Properties in Zimbabwe. I made the investment in 2007 at the height of the boom times in the previous bull market. I worked at BoE Stockbrokers at the time, and we took a bunch of clients to Victoria Falls where we were presented to by one of the local Zimbabwean stockbroking firms that we’d partnered with. They lined up a great weekend for all of us and we were presented to by a number of investment industry experts and analysts who sold us the story of how undervalued Zimbabwean assets were under the abysmal government of President Robert Mugabe. The line of thinking was that Mugabe’s reign of power was dwindling and that even if he remained in power, his age counted against him and that the country was likely to see a brighter future.
The company I invested in – Dawn Properties – is a company that holds some of Zimbabwe’s finest tourism property assets. The investment case for buying this company was the fact that tourism would likely recover quickly if the political situation in Zimbabwe improved, and that the insurance replacement value of the assets on the balance sheet was nearly double what the market capitalisation of the entire company was. Hence I was buying the business well below the value of its tangible net asset value, never mind the potential upside if the tourism business in Zimbabwe recovered.
So I invested R500 000 into the shares of Dawn Properties and fastened my seatbelt for the ride.
Fast forward seven years and little has changed in Zimbabwe, particularly in the tourism sector. Mugabe still rules by hook or by crook and the economy of Zimbabwe remains stubbornly weak.
My investment in Dawn Properties has been illiquid and difficult to trade out of, but I have finally managed to exit the entire investment in the past week with a loss of R233 000 or 47% over seven years.
I maintain that the fundamental reasons for considering the investment in Dawn Properties in the first place remains reasonable. But what annoys me about the decision that I made in 2007 was that this was essentially a punt (gamble if you will) on a number of “ifs”, “buts” and “maybes” coming to fruition. These are not terms that should normally come into play when making sound investment decisions.
It was admittedly a gamble. And ultimately a gamble that has failed to pay off.
I was 27 years old at the time I made the investment. I’m 34 years old now. I still have plenty of time on my side to generate substantial wealth over my lifetime, so this loss is certainly not the end of the world.
What really bugs me about this however is that I should have known better and should have stuck to sound investment principles. Sound investment principles take a long-term view on a bunch of fairly high probability outcomes. No ifs, buts and maybes.
The loss is fine and I accept it. But what is really hard to swallow is the opportunity cost of this investment. There were several other opportunities to make safer, sound investments that would have yielded significantly better returns, even after the market crash of 2008 and 2009 is taken into consideration.
Imagine if I’d instead invested in Woolworths at R23.00 per share (up 250% since then), or Aspen at R37 per share (up 800% since then). These are just two examples of companies that have yielded solid returns and were sound investments back in 2007. There are many others.
A common line of thinking is that you can take greater risks when you’re young as you have more time to recover if things go wrong. This is actually nonse reasoning that people use far too often to make poor investment decisions with unnecessarily high risks. The counter argument to this is that you have time on your side when you’re young and therefore a slow and steady approach to building wealth has more time to work for you, and to consequently generate greater returns over time, with less need to take unnecessary risks.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.moneyweb.co.za/investing/property/failures-of-a-successful-investor/