黃金怎樣影響貨幣

2015-08-19 16:32:10

黃金由於其在投資和消費領域重要的角色成為人們談論最多的金屬。即使黃金在發達國家已經不作為基礎的貨幣使用,但是它對那些貨幣仍然有強勁的影響。此外,在外匯交易時其價值和貨幣的強度有很大的關聯性。(相關閱讀請見:《黃金:另一種貨幣》)


為了幫助闡述黃金和外匯交易之間的關系,考慮以下的五個重要方面:
1.黃金曾用於支持法定貨幣。
早在拜占庭帝國時期,黃金就用被作為合法清償工具於支撐法定貨幣或者他們國家發行的各種貨幣。直到20世紀,黃金還被作為世界儲備貨幣,直到1971年尼克松總統廢止前美國都在使用黃金。(更多請見《黃金標準的重新審視》)

其使用的一個原因是它限制國家允許印刷貨幣的數量。這是因為,和現在一樣,黃金的供應量有限。直到金本位制被廢除,國家不能簡單地印刷法定貨幣裝門面,除非他們有相等數量的黃金。盡管金本位制不再用於發達世界,一些經濟學家因為美元和其他貨幣的波動性認為我們應該回歸到金本位制。

2.黃金被用於對沖通貨膨脹
當其所在的國家發生高水平的通貨膨脹時投資者通常購買大量的黃金。在通貨膨脹期間黃金需求的上升是因為其固有價值和有限的供應。因為不能被稀釋,黃金比其它形式的貨幣保存價值更高。(更多相關閱讀請見《20世紀70年代的巨大通貨膨脹》)

例如,在2011年4月,投資者擔心法定貨幣的價值下跌使黃金的價格被驅動到令人吃驚的1500美元每盎司。這表明對世界市場貨幣缺乏信心和對未來經濟穩定的預期是灰暗的。

3.黃金的價格影響進口和出口它的國家。
一個國家貨幣的價值和是和其進出口緊緊聯系在一起的。當一個國家的進口多於出口時,其貨幣價值會下降。另一方面,當一個國家是淨出口國時,其貨幣價值會上升。因此,一個黃金出口國或者有大量黃金儲備的國家在黃金價格上升時其貨幣強度上升,因為這增加了這個國家的出口總額。(相關閱讀請見《黃金怎麼了?》)

4.購買黃金常常減少購買它的貨幣的價值。
當中央銀行購買黃金,將會影響國内貨幣的供求並可能導致通脹。這很大程度上由於銀行依靠印刷過多的貨幣購買黃金,並因此提供了過剩的法定貨幣供應。

另一方面,黃金價格上漲將會創造貿易盈餘或者抵消貿易逆差。相反,進行大量進口國家的貨幣在黃金價格上漲時將不可避免的走弱。例如,專業生產黃金制品但是缺少自己黃金儲備的國家,將會是大型的黃金進口國。因此,他們將最容易受到黃金價格上升的影響。

5.黃金價格經常用於衡量當地貨幣,但是也有例外。
許多人錯誤地把黃金當作衡量一個國家貨幣的明確代理。盡管黃金價格和法定貨幣價值之間有毋庸置疑的關系,但並不是像許多人假定的總是反比關系。

例如,如果有一個行業需要大量黃金進行生產,這將引起黃金價格上升。但是這可能對當地貨幣沒有任何影響,在同時貨幣價值也可能上升。因此,盡管黃金價格可以經常被用於反映美元的價值,需要分析條件確定事實上是否是反比關系。

總結
黃金對世界上的貨幣有深遠的影響。即使金本制已經被廢除,黃金可以作為法定貨幣代替品的大宗商品,並可以作為通貨膨脹的一個有效對沖。毫無疑問,黃金將在外匯交易市場繼續發揮不可或缺的作用。因此,它是一種因其獨特展示國際和地區經濟健康的能力用來跟蹤和分析的重要金屬。

How Gold Affects Currencies

By Kalen Smith | May 16, 2011 

Gold is one of the most widely discussed metals due to its prominent role in both the investment and consumer world. Even though gold is no longer used as a primary form of currency in developed nations, it continues to have a strong impact on the value of those currencies. Moreover, there is a strong correlation between its value and the strength of currencies trading on foreign exchanges. (For related reading, see Gold: The Other Currency.)

To help illustrate this relationship between gold and foreign exchange trading, consider these five important aspects:
1. Gold was once used to back up fiat currencies.
As early as the Byzantine Empire, gold was used to support fiat currencies, or the various currencies considered legal tender in their nation of origin. Gold was also used as the world reserve currency up through most of the 20th century; the United States used the gold standard until 1971 when President Nixon discontinued it. (For more, see The Gold Standard Revisited.)

One of the reasons for its use is that it limited the amount of money nations were allowed to print. This is because, then as now, countries had limited gold supplies on hand. Until the gold standard was abandoned, countries couldn't simply print their fiat currencies ad nauseum unless they possessed an equal amount of gold. Although the gold standard is no longer used in the developed world, some economists feel we should return to it due to the volatility of the U.S. dollar and other currencies.

2.Gold is used to hedge against inflation.
Investors typically buy large quantities of gold when their country is experiencing high levels of inflation. The demand for gold increases during inflationary times due to its inherent value and limited supply. As it cannot be diluted, gold is able to retain value much better than other forms of currency. (For related reading, see The Great Inflation Of The 1970s.)

For example, in April 2011, investors feared declining values of fiat currency and the price of gold was driven to a staggering $1,500 an ounce. This indicates there was little confidence in the currencies on the world market and that expectations of future economic stability were grim.

3.The price of gold affects countries that import and export it.
The value of a nation's currency is strongly tied to the value of its imports and exports. When a country imports more than it exports, the value of its currency will decline. On the other hand, the value of its currency will increase when a country is a net exporter. Thus, a country that exports gold or has access to gold reserves will see an increase in the strength of its currency when gold prices increase, since this increases the value of the country's total exports. (For related reading, see What Is Wrong With Gold?) 

In other words, an increase in the price of gold can create a trade surplus or help offset a trade deficit. Conversely, countries that are large importers of gold will inevitably end up having a weaker currency when the price of gold rises. For example, countries that specialize in producing products made with gold, but lack their own gold reserves, will be large importers of gold. Thus, they will be particularly susceptible to increases in the price of gold.

4.Gold purchases tend to reduce the value of the currency used to purchase it.
When central banks purchase gold, it affects the supply and demand of the domestic currency and may result in inflation. This is largely due to the fact that banks rely on printing more money to buy gold, and thereby create an excess supply of the fiat currency.  

5.Gold prices are often used to measure the value of a local currency, but there are exceptions.
Many people mistakenly use gold as a definitive proxy for valuing a country's currency. Although there is undoubtedly a relationship between gold prices and the value of a fiat currency, it is not always an inverse relationship as many people assume.

For example, if there is high demand from an industry that requires gold for production, this will cause gold prices to rise. But this will say nothing about the local currency, which may very well be highly valued at the same time. Thus, while the price of gold can often be used as a reflection of the value of the U.S. dollar, conditions need to be analyzed to determine if an inverse relationship is indeed appropriate.

The Bottom Line
Gold has a profound impact on the value of world currencies. Even though the gold standard has been abandoned, gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies and be used as an effective hedge against inflation. There is no doubt that gold will continue to play an integral role in the foreign exchange markets. Therefore, it is an important metal to follow and analyze for its unique ability to represent the health of both local and international economies. (This article explores the past, present and future of gold. For more, see The Midas Touch For Gold Investors.)


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文章來源:http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/golds-effect-currencies.asp
 
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本文所含内容及觀點僅為一般信息,並無任何意圖被視為買賣任何貨幣或差價合約的建議或請求。文中所含内容及觀點均可能在不被通知的情況下更改。本文並未考 慮任何特定用戶的特定投資目標、財務狀況和需求。任何引用歷史價格波動或價位水平的信息均基於我們的分析,並不表示或證明此類波動或價位水平有可能在未來 重新發生。本文所載信息之來源雖被認為可靠,但作者不保證它的準確性和完整性,同時作者也不對任何可能因參考本文内容及觀點而產生的任何直接或間接的損失承擔責任。

外匯和其他產品保證金交易存在高風險,不適合所有投資者。虧損可能超出您的賬戶註資。增大槓桿意味著增加風險。在決定交易外匯之前,您需仔細考慮您的財務目標、經驗水平和風險承受能力。文中所含任何意見、新聞、研究、分析、報價或其他信息等都僅 作與本文所含主題相關的一般類信息.

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