倒黴的時候如何交易

俗話說一帆風順，但實際情況卻不總是這樣。

在過去的幾十年里，我不止一次看到這樣的事，一個人一開始就賺到錢，後來也賺錢，於是他就一直賺下去。

然而前一陣子，我見了我一個朋友，她非常糾結。她有明確的目標，堅實的基础以及嚴謹的思維，偏偏她的交易結果不盡如人意。

不管是什麼交易，她總是一開始就賠掉，她的挫敗感就這樣建立了起來。隨著經驗增加，她也有所提高，她每一步都做對了，為什麼就是賺不到錢？

答案很簡單：運氣太差。

在網球比賽中，每次錦標賽的抽簽都是隨機的。抽簽時，種子選手的位置時確定的，但其他的就看運氣了。只要你不是排名第一的種子選手，那麼每次都抽到對陣1號種子的可能性是存在的。雖然不太可能發生，但這跟你第一次玩21點就連輸六局是一樣的（我親身經歷過）。

交易員也會遇到同樣的事，可能你擁有一個完善的系統（堅實的基础），嚴謹的思維（嚴守紀律、不情緒化），卻還是賠了。

世界上最不幸的事情是，你是個優秀的交易員，但你的帳戶卻說你是個失敗者，而你失敗的唯一原因就是你運氣太差。如果你在別的任何時間交易，你可能就賺的滿盆滿钵了。可你偏偏選了這個時間點，那沒辦法，只能做個失敗者了。

你還能做些什麼呢？辦法還是有的。

方法一，堅持。這是最艱難的辦法。用實際行動來消除焦慮、減少懷疑。坐以待斃解決不了任何問題。

巴菲特是怎麼做的?他堅持不懈。他花了320億美元買入某公司股票，但按當前的市場形勢來分析，這個公司的股價在接下來的幾個月可能會下跌。巴菲特在一個運氣可能不太好的時間花掉了幾百億，卻仍然自我感覺良好，這是因為他打算持有“100年”。如果你信任你的長期策略，那麼堅持住，它會帶你致富。

方法二，多樣化。如果你不把雞蛋放在一個籃子里，而是分散到不同的投資組合中，事情會怎樣發展呢？

方法三，每月進行一次組合優化。雖然你可能又選中了一個倒黴的時機，但你在當前市場條件中仍有挽救的機會。

壞運氣就在那里，它可能會妨礙你。可是如果你準備好了，結局也會是美好的。

Good Trading During Unlucky Times

Usually, things go well right from the start, however this is not always the case.

One thing I’ve repeatedly seen with traders over the past decade is that they start winning right away, and the process is always the same. And then the winning begins.

But a while ago, I had a meeting with a friend of mine who was really struggling. She had specific goals, solid fundamentals, and a pretty good mindset. In practice, she was looking really good.

Yet, she was losing in the first round almost every trading competition and in key trades, and the frustration was starting to build. She had improved. She was doing all the right things. She’d done everything she was supposed to do. Why wasn’t it paying off?

Simple: bad luck.

In tennis, every tournament draw is made at random. The seeded players are placed in a predetermined spot in the draw, but everything else is luck of the draw. If you’re not one of the highest ranked players in the tournament, there is a chance you could be randomly chosen to play the #1 seed every time. It’s not likely, but it’s nothing different than stepping up to play Blackjack in Vegas for the very first time and losing the first six hands in a row (the first and last time I gambled in Vegas).

The same thing can happen to a trader. You can have a good system (good fundamentals), a good mindset (disciplined and unemotional), and still lose.

Ultimately, you are a good trader. But your account balance says you’re a failure, and the only reason you’re a failure is simply bad luck. If you had started trading at almost any other time, you would have had a lot of money in your account. But because you started at an unlucky time, though, you’re a loser.

So, is there anything you can do? Here are a few solutions.

One, you can persevere. It’s, by far, the hardest solution. Taking action removes anxiety and lessens doubt. Sitting around and trusting does nothing to take away those emotions.

But what does Warren Buffett do? He perseveres. He buys companies for $32 billion at a time when the stock of that company is probably going to fall in the upcoming months (along with the stock market in general). Buffett can spend billions in a potentially bad luck period and feel good about it because he’s going to be in that business for a “100 years.” When you trust your system over the long-term, perseverance can make you very wealthy.

Another thing you can do is diversify. What if, instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, you added other Robots to your portfolio? Lastly, you could choose to re-optimize every month. There’s still a chance you could start at a bad luck time, but you have a fighting chance that your system is prepared to trade in current market conditions.

Bad luck is out there and it can sabotage you. If you’re ready for it, though, you will come out very happy in the end.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.financemagnates.com/executives/insights/good-trading-during-unlucky-times/