美聯儲加息不會阻礙美國經濟增長

美聯儲終於在萬衆期待中完成了加息，這是十年來的首次加息，而有些人卻擔心加息會影響美國的經濟增長。美國金融危機後的恢復表現不佳，為悲觀主義者提供了一些支援：盡管利率接近於零，美元長期處於低迷狀態，失業率也有所下降，但美國的名義GDP增長仍徘徊在3.75%附近。美元加息後，情況會不會更糟？ 

瑞士信貸表達了不同的觀點，認為美國的名義GDP增長率將在2016年第一季度增加至4%，並在2016年年底突破5.1%。（實質GDP增長率將在2016年達到2.7%，2015年第三季度的增長率為2.1%。）瑞士信貸首席經濟學家James Sweeney對此很有信心，因為已經出現一些加息無法阻止的趨勢。 

Sweeney表示：“即使在這種緊縮的條件下，經濟也在加速。”這與他在2015年12月初的瑞士信貸量化會議中的觀點相呼應。“美國低迷的經濟狀況已經開始恢復了。”

在大蕭條後的五年中，收益都集中在能源和財政等金融部門。但在最後兩年中，出現了不同景象。從勞動力市場開始，失業率逐漸下降，新設崗位數量驟增，並恢復至2007年金融危機之前的水平。 

雖然計時工資的增長不甚明顯，11月增長0.2%，10月增長0.4%，但名義勞動總收入，即所有勞動者的薪酬總額卻有顯著增長，自2003年以來的增長已超過了危機前的4.5%。 

雖然收入沒有明顯增長，但美國人的消費卻增加了。包括汽車和汽油在內的核心零售銷量在11月增加了0.5%。但瑞士信貸分析家指出，如果所有的汽油銷售都計算在內，核心零售銷量的數值會更高。Sweeney表示：“汽油銷量占整體消費的2%，如果汽油價格下降50%，會產生極大的影響，數據就沒這麼好看了。”如果對油價的變化做出調整，消費支出的年化增長率會從2013年之前的4%增加到4.5%。 

美國人的信貸也有所增加，2013年的家庭債務已減至10萬億美元，而如今已恢復至12萬億美元。瑞士信貸經濟學家Zoltan Pozsar和Xiao Cui表示，雖然高信用評分消費者的信貸增長更快，但住房危機重災區的債務也有所增加。分析家表示，信貸的恢復，是美國經濟复蘇的重要標志。 

最後，在近六年中，由供應管理協會的非制造業採購經理人指數測評的美國國內服務業每個月都有所增長。Sweeney表示，該版塊已恢復了強勁勢頭。

很多趨勢都表明經濟增長的复蘇進入了一個低頻週期，這是一個好兆頭，表明美國經濟能夠經受住加息的沖擊。Sweeney表示：“他們總是在重複同樣的事，25、50甚至150個基點的利率增長不會擾亂經濟增長的步伐。” 

Fed Tightening Won’t Squeeze US Growth

The Federal Reserve’s long-anticipated rate hike yesterday –its first in 10 years — came amid worry from some that moving the federal funds rate up from zero could slow U.S. economic growth. The U.S.’s underwhelming post-financial crisis recovery provides some support for that pessimism: nominal GDP growth has averaged just 3.75 percent despite the benefit of a near-zero interest rates, a long-depressed dollar and a dropping unemployment rate. Might the situation turn worse with higher interest rates? 

Credit Suisse has a different outlook. The bank predicts that U.S. nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 4 percent in the first quarter of 2016 and hit 5.1 percent by the end of that year. (Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 2.7 percent in 2016, up from 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015.) The bank is confident in that growth, says Chief EconomistJames Sweeney, because of the emergence of several economic trends that the Fed hike is unlikely to disrupt. 

“We’re actually accelerating even with this tightening of conditions,” says Sweeney, echoing an argument he made at Credit Suisse’s 2015 Quantitative Conference in early December. “The underlying economic health of the U.S. has changed.” 

In the five years following the Great Recession, gains were concentrated in certain pockets of the U.S. economy, such as the energy and the financial sectors. But in the last two years, a different picture has emerged. Starting with the labor market: In addition to the widely-reported steady declines in the unemployment rate, the number of job openings have jumped sharply to levels last seen pre-crisis, in 2007. 

While hourly wage growth isn’t all that impressive—it was up 0.2 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October—total nominal labor income, or the sum of all of workers’ compensation, has seen more significant growth since 2013, rising above its post-crisis trend of 4.5 percent. Hourly wage growth, meanwhile, could see more meaningful increases if unemployment rates continue their downward trend. 

Even without significant wage growth, Americans are spending more. Core retail sales — which exclude auto and some gas sales — rose 0.5 percent in November, beating the 0.4 percent consensus. But Credit Suisse analysts note that core retail sales figures could be even higher if all gas sales were excluded. “Given that gasoline sales are around 2 percent of our total consumption, if (the gas price) falls by 50 percent, that’s actually a big drag,” says Sweeney. “It pollutes the data.” If adjusting for the impact of gas prices, consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 4.5 percent, up from 4 percent before 2013. 

Americans are also borrowing more. After falling to just under $10 trillion in 2013, total household debt is now above $12 trillion. An analysis by Sweeney and fellow Credit Suisse economists Zoltan Pozsar and Xiao Cui shows that although debt is growing faster among consumers with higher credit scores, the rising debt trend also includes borrowers in states hit hard by the housing crisis. The return of credit growth, say the analysts, “marks an important threshold” in the recovery of the U.S. economy. 

Lastly, the U.S. domestic services sector, as measured by the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index, has expanded every month for nearly six years. The sector, says Sweeney, has shown “momentum that it hasn’t had in a long time.”

Many of the trends indicating improving economic growth move on a low-frequency cycle, which bode well for their likelihood to withstand any impact from Fed rate hikes. “They do the same thing for years in a row,” says Sweeney. “A 25 or 50 or 150 basis point change in the Fed funds rate is unlikely to disrupt these developments.” 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/fed-tightening-wont-squeeze-u-s-growth/#sthash.vHgyjdhn.dpuf