Rick Rieder 2016年5月9日
美聯儲上週沒採取行動，繼續對當前國際經濟、金融和通脹狀況採取觀望態度。
那麼根據美聯儲當前的態度，你可能會懷疑它什麼時候會再次開始利率正常化進程呢？準確的判斷美聯儲的政策路徑需要關註下面兩個因素。
國内經濟“警示信號”
換句話說，觀察企業利潤、就業增長和通貨膨脹。標準普爾500指數中企業正在經歷第六個月的利潤下降。這將對未來資本支出和就業的增長前景有深遠影響。事實上，我很早之前就指出了我們會在今年下半年經歷就業增長下降，因為企業收益降低使工資降低的轉換通常滞後6個月。在這種情況下，我認為今年將最多出現一個加息決定。
國外環境，尤其是中國
作為判斷全球金融體系和中國金融環境潛在壓力的一個工具，觀察美元能發現美聯儲任何舉動的線索。美元會誤導美聯儲忽視國際經濟發展、風險和金融環境，好像美國經濟能完全免疫境外幹擾一樣。
因此，除了關註國内傳統勞動力市場增長和通貨膨脹因素，美聯儲還需要關註境外風險。這也是近期美聯儲更加溫和的原因，這顯然考慮到了美元在全球的重要性、帶給國際貿易夥伴的壓力和中國經濟轉型中面臨的挑戰。觀察下面的圖表，研究美聯儲主席耶倫關於經濟前景的講話。
鑒於中國對全球經濟動態增長的重要性和其之前進行對美元匯率限制，2014年和2015年美元的增值對中國的經濟增長率增加壓力並不奇怪。事實上，美元增值是2015年末和2016年初金融市場的關鍵斷層線。
由於美元適度的穩定和其他央行積極的應對政策，全球金融環境壓力在近幾個月得到緩解。此外，大宗商品價格的複蘇預示著中國和其他新興經濟體正在恢複穩定增長。展望未來，美聯儲謹慎態度將和其他因素一起保持美元相對穩定，或者至少能防止美元過度上漲。這將能確保中國和其他新興市場擁有更好的經濟增長條件。
現在，這些因素都表明美聯儲至少在未來幾個月不會採取行動，利率正常化的步伐將會放緩，今年美聯儲可能只進行一次或者不進行加息。同時，準確預測下一次加息將需要密切關註國際經濟環境和國内經濟斷層線。
To Correctly Predict the Fed’s Policy Path, Watch This
By Rick Rieder May 9, 2016 — 7:47 PM EDT
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy unchanged last week, continuing a “wait-and-see” approach appropriate for today’s global economic, financial and inflationary conditions.
So, with the Fed on the right track for now, you may be wondering: When will the central bank again start the process of rate normalization? Accurately judging the Fed’s policy path will require keeping an eye on two factors.
Domestic economic “warning signs”
In other words, watch corporate profits, jobs growth and inflation. Corporations in the S&P 500 Index are in the process of printing their sixth consecutive quarterly earnings decline. This has profound implications for forward growth potential in capital expenditures and hiring. In fact, I’ve long argued that we’re likely to see a weakening in employment growth in the second half of the year, as reduced earnings tend to translate into lower payrolls with a roughly six-month lag. If this does occur, the Fed may have difficultly hiking rates, especially if inflation remains weak. In that scenario, I would expect no more than one Fed policy rate hike this year, as labor market strength has been the highlight of recent economic performance.
Conditions abroad, and particularly in China
For clues to any Fed move, watch the U.S. dollar (USD), as a gauge of potential stress in the global financial system, and financial conditions in China. It would be misguided for the Fed to disregard international economic developments, risks, and financial conditions, as if the U.S. economy were completely immune to disruptions from outside its borders.
So, in addition to worrying about its traditional domestic considerations of labor market growth and inflation, the Fed is understandably concerned with risks from abroad. This is evident in the more dovish language coming from the Fed recently that clearly accounts for the importance of the dollar in the global framework, the stresses to international trade partners, as well as the challenges that China’s economy faces in its transition. See the chart below, examining the language in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s economic outlook speeches.
Given the importance of China to the global growth dynamic, and the country’s previous effective peg to the USD, it’s not surprising that USD strengthening in 2014 and 2015 placed great pressure on China’s growth rate. Indeed, dollar strength has been a key fault line stressing financial markets in late-2015 and early-2016.
Global financial condition stress has eased in recent months due to a modest stabilization in the USD and continued aggressive policy response from foreign central banks. In addition, the recovery of commodity prices is indicative of stabilizing growth in China and much of the emerging world. Looking forward, Fed caution, along with other factors, is likely to keep the dollar fairly stable, or at least keep it from rising excessively. This would go some distance in keeping China and emerging market (EM) growth in a better place.
For now, these factors suggest that the Fed will remain on pause for the next few months at least, the pace of rate normalization will be slow and the central bank will probably be limited to one, or even no, hikes this year. In the meantime, correctly predicting when the next hike will take place will require paying close attention to global financial conditions along with domestic economic fault lines.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/markets/050916/correctly-predict-feds-policy-path-watch.asp