Cory Mitchell 2016年8月5日
賭博的定義是在事物的偶然性上打賭。然而，在考慮到交易時，賭博的就包含了比原本定義更加複雜的因素。許多交易員都是在自己不知情的情況下進行賭博，以一種方式交易或者因為某些原因進行與成功完全相反方向的投資。
在本文中，我們將讨論隐藏在交易實踐中的賭博行為，以及驅動人們進行交易（或許是賭博）的首要因素。
隐藏的賭博傾向
即使事實出現時，那些不相信自己有賭博傾向的人將很難承認他們的交易實際上受到賭博沖動的影響。發現是什麼原因讓我們進行某些行為可以改變我們的内心那些已經被發現的潛意識行為。
在深入研究實際交易的賭博傾向之前，許多人在交易中都會出現一個趨勢。這個驅動因素在交易者獲得經驗和成為資深市場參與者後還將對他們產生影響。
社交證明
一些人甚至對交易和在金融市場投資沒有興趣，但是社會壓力會誘使他們進行交易或者以其他方式投資。這在大多數人都在市場進行投資時尤為常見（通常是在牛市的末期）。人們會感到適應社交壓力。因為如果他們不進行投資，可能會感到被漠視和冷落。
如果人們了解他們實際上在做什麼，購買一些股票或者進行一些交易來緩解社交壓力本身並不是賭博。但是如果沒有堅實的投資理解就進行交易那就是賭博。這樣的人缺乏足夠的知識來控制他們交易選擇的盈利能力。
市場充滿變化、錯誤信息和虛假信息，很容易使交易員進行賭博投資。如果不能有足夠的知識避免這些出現損失的可能性，賭博將會發生在每筆交易中。
起作用的賭博因素
一旦人們參與到金融市場中，他們就會有一個學習曲線，這個曲線以基於看起來像是賭博社交論為基礎。這個因人而異。人們進入市場的方式決定他們是一個成功的交易者或者成為金融市場的永恒賭徒。下面兩個特徵很容被忽視，但是卻能引起交易者的賭博傾向。
因為興奮進行賭博交易
即使是虧損交易也能激起人們的滿意情緒，尤其是與社交證明相關的時候。如果一個人的社交圈有人在市場中虧損，在交易中虧損將會使他在與朋友交談時能有可以講述的話題。
當一個人因為興奮或者為了進行社交證明交易時，那麼他很可能在以賭博的方式進行交易，而不是依照系統的經過測驗的方式。交易是件興奮的事，它將全球網絡帶中有不同觀點、背景和信仰的交易者聚集在一起。然而一旦興奮、情緒高漲或者低落時進行交易，很有可能影響交易的系統性和有條理性。
為了贏得交易，而不是系統的交易
以有條例和系統的方式交易在任何情況下都非常重要。為了贏得交易看起來是進行交易的最主要原因。畢竟，如果不能贏得交易你為什麼還交易呢？但是在個觀點中還有一個隐藏的不利因素。
盡管賺錢是所有人想要的結果，但是贏得交易實際上可能使我們離賺錢越來越遠。如果取勝是我們的主要動力，那麼可能會出現下面的情形：
Jill在感覺到一只股票與市場其他股票相比是超賣時買入了該股票，該股票繼續下跌，使她處於不利的位置。她沒有意識到這只股票除了超賣之外還受到其他因素的影響，繼續持有倉位，希望該股票能夠反彈以便能贏得交易。對贏得交易的過分關註使交易者未能從不利的位置退出，因為這樣做意味著他們承認本次交易的失敗。
好的交易者能接受很多失敗，他們承認錯誤並將損失控制在最小。不是必須贏得每筆交易和接受失敗使他們能在多次交易後獲利。在環境變化後還繼續持有虧損倉位意味著交易者正在賭博而且不再堅持良好的交易方法。
總結
賭博傾向遠遠超過大多數人的初始認知和標準的定義。賭博可以發生在需要在社交中證明自己或者需要社交認可時，這導致人們在不了解的領域進行行動。
在市場中賭博通常發生在那些在市場中獲得興奮情緒的人身上。最終，他們不以有條理和系統的方式交易，而是依賴情緒或者必須要贏的態度創造利潤，這表明他們正在市場中賭博，而且不可能在多次交易過後還能獲利。
Are You Investing or Gambling?
By Cory Mitchell | Updated August 5, 2016 — 11:20 AM EDT
Gambling is defined as staking something on a contingency. However, when trading is considered, gambling takes on a much more complex dynamic than the definition presents. Many traders are gambling without even knowing it - trading in a way or for a reason that is completely dichotomous with success in the markets.
In this article we will look at the hidden ways in which gambling creeps into trading practices, as well as the stimulus that may drive an individual to trade (and possibly gamble) in the first place.
Hidden Gambling Tendencies
It is quite likely that anyone who believes they don't have gambling tendencies will not happily admit to having them if it turns out they are in fact acting on gambling impulses. Yet discovering what drives us to take certain actions can create change within us as the underlying motivators are discovered by the conscious mind.
Before delving into gambling tendencies when actually trading, one tendency is apparent in many people before trading even takes place. This same motivator continues to impact traders as they gain experience and become regular market participants.
Social Proofing
Some people may not even have an interest in trading or investing within the financial markets, but social pressures induce them to trade or invest anyway. This is especially common when large numbers of people are talking about investing in the markets (often during the final phase of a bull market). People feel pressured to conform by their social circle. Thus they invest so as not to disrespect or disregard others' beliefs or feel left out.
Buying some stocks or placing some trades to appease social forces is not gambling in and of itself if people actually know what they are doing. But entering into a financial transaction without a solid investment understanding is gambling. Such people lack the knowledge to exert control over the profitability of their choices.
There are many variables in the market, and misinformation or disinformation within investors or traders creates a gambling scenario. Until knowledge has been developed that allows people to overcome the odds of losing, gambling is taking place with each transaction that occurs.
Contributing Gambling Factors
Once someone is involved in the financial markets, there is a learning curve, which based on the social proofing discussion above may seem like it is gambling. This may or may not be true based on the individual. How the person approaches the market will determine whether she/he becomes a successful trader or remains a perpetual gambler in the financial markets. The following two traits (among many) are easily overlooked but contribute to gambling tendencies in traders.
Gambling (Trading) for Excitement
Even a losing trade can stir emotions and a sense of power or satisfaction, especially when related to social proofing. If everyone in a person's social circle is losing money in the markets, losing money on a trade will allow that person to enter the conversation with her/his own story.
When a person trades for excitement or social proofing reasons, it is likely that she/he is trading in a gambling style, rather than in a methodical and tested way. Trading the markets is exciting; it links the person into a global network of traders and investors with different ideas, backgrounds and beliefs. Yet getting caught up in the "idea" of trading, the excitement, or emotional highs and lows is likely to detract from acting in a systematic and methodical way.
Trading to Win, and Not Trading a System
Trading in a methodical and systematic way is important in any odds-based scenario. Trading to win seems like the most obvious reason to trade. After all, why trade if you can't win? But there is a hidden detrimental flaw when it comes to this belief and trading.
While making money is the desired overall result, trading to win can actually drive us further away from making money. If winning is our prime motivator, the following scenario is likely to play out:
Jill buys a stock as she feels it is oversold compared to the rest of the market. The stock continues to fall, placing her in a negative position. Instead of realizing that the stock is not simply oversold and that something else must be going on, she continues to hold the position, hoping it will come back so she can win (or even break even) on the trade. The focus on winning has forced the trader into the position where she doesn't get out of bad positions, because to do so would be to admit she lost on that trade.
Good traders take many losses; they admit they are wrong and keep the damage small. Not having to win on every trade and taking losses when conditions indicate they should is what allows them to be profitable over many trades. Holding losing positions after original entry conditions have changed or turned negative for the trade means the trader is now gambling and no longer using sound trading methods (if she/he ever was).
The Bottom Line
Gambling tendencies run far deeper than most people initially perceive and well beyond the standard definitions. Gambling can take the form of needing to socially prove one's self, or acting in a way to be socially accepted, which results in taking action in a field one knows little about.
Gambling in the markets is often evident in people who do it mostly for the emotional high they receive from the excitement and action of the markets. Finally, not trading in a methodical and tested system, but rather relying on emotion or a must-win attitude to create profits, indicates the person is gambling in the markets and unlikely to succeed over the course of many trades.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/10/investing-or-gambling.asp