如何利用重大經濟事件制定交易計劃

交易決策要依照計劃而行，而如何設定計劃則要利用每天的交易機會和非正常環境提供的潛在獲利機會。

在新聞時段進行交易是有一定困難的，尤其是出人意料的新聞事件。首先，重大新聞事件是完全無法預料的，比如2015年的黑天鵝事件。

第二個難題是如何在新聞時段進行交易。如果事件導致了意料之外的變化，就需要思考市場會如何反應，這種變化會產生怎樣的潛在結果，這是很難預料的。

以瑞士法郎為例，市場反應非常迅速，一瞬間損失了30%的價值，數十億美金消失。多個經紀商一瞬間破產，即使沒有破產，也難以支付倉位，因為之後的走勢也難以預料。大多數經紀商都被迫暫停交易，幾天之後，流動性供應商和監管機構才找到更好的解決方案。最終，順勢賣空的投資者也沒有賺到太多，因為經紀商的風險管理工具自動關閉了他們的倉位，暫停了交易，無法開倉平倉。而破產經紀商名下的客戶也遭受了虧損，因為他們無力支付客戶。

這是個比較極端的例子，足以體現出黑天鵝這類事件的高風險性。其他的交易事件通常達不到黑天鵝的程度，反而會提供很棒的交易機會和更穩定的獲利空間，比如網絡泡沫和GFC的爆發、比特幣在2013年的走勢反轉等。

每個人都會制定不同的交易計劃，所以在制定方案的問題上提供建議是很難的。但是重大事件下的市場不會遵守常規的市場規律。因此某一事件的準入標準可能是完全相反的，所以在設定進入點時需要多加思考。

此外，重大事件時期的市場表現也會大相徑庭，說明退出點也不能以常理推斷。

對於技術分析員來說，如果不了解基本分析的内容，很難對市場走勢進行合理的解釋。這對很多技術分析員來說是個難題。對於基本分析員來講，如果沒有研究過技術指標和圖表活動，雖能理解原因，但也無法完美解釋市場為何如此反應。

最好的辦法是回顧以前的新聞事件。先觀察事件發生時，常規的計劃如何開始，哪裡有不合用之處。如果你的常規方法或指標可以使用，那麼就無需調整。如果你需要針對不同的市場環境進行調整，就要給你的計劃設定不同的前提條件。如果都不好用，就找到好用的再用。

然後用同樣的方法對現有的策略進行修改。

總的來說，對市場活動的歷史表現進行分析是非常重要的，這會加深你的理解，促進交易的成功。留意觀察財經日歷或是經濟指標，它們會告訴你有利可圖的事件何時發生。

How to take advantage of important economic events through your trading plan
 
Your trading plan is the main template for every trading decision. Whilst plans are designed to take advantage of everyday trading opportunities, unusual situations that offer great potential profitability should be incorporated into the scope of every trading plan.

There are a few difficulties in trading an event, particularly a market shattering one. The first is that a really surprising event, in the likes of the Black Swan event of 2015, are highly unexpected.

The second main difficulty is the issue of how to trade the actual event. If the event is something that creates a new unexpected paradigm, understanding how the market will react, and particularly how the new paradigm defines the potential outcome is something that is difficult to gauge.

To use the unlinking of the Swiss franc as an example, the market reacted so suddenly to the news that it lost in excess of 30% of its value immediately, wiping billions off the market. All in one moment, several brokers lost in excess of their holdings and became insolvent. Those that were not, had difficulty paying out positions because the speed of the movement left doubt as to whether the positions could have been filled or closed. Trading was basically halted by most brokers, and it took days for feed providers and regulators to understand how the situation could have been better handled. In the end, many of those with positions in place to take advantage of the drop did not necessarily receive their profit, with their brokerage’s risk management tools automatically closing their positions, halting trading, unable to identify close or open positions and a variety of other reasons. And many of those who traded with an insolvent broker also lost, as there was no one to pay them out.

Whilst this was an extreme example, it serves to highlight the risks involved in a black swan type event.

Other trading events, though not on the level of a black swan, but more like the bursting of the dot com bubble or the GFC, or paradigm shifts like the emergence of bitcoin in 2013, provide excellent trading opportunities and a much more stable capacity to recoup profits.

Everyone has a different plan and style of trading, so providing advice on incorporating it into the plan is a bit tricky. But a significant market event will generally not fall within the trading rules set out in a plan designed to trade in regular market conditions. The entry criteria are likely to be completely different for an event, and thus some thought needs to be taken into account as to how to identify the entry point.

In addition, the market behaviour during a significant event is generally different as well, meaning that the exit criteria are also unusable.

For those who are technical traders, it might be difficult to identify the reason for the event without understanding the fundamental elements. This in itself might be a challenge for many technical traders. For a fundamental trader, understanding the reasons might not fully give an understanding of how the market is likely to react without studying the technical indicators and chart activity.

The best method for creating a new plan for an event is to go back to previous events. Start by seeing how your regular entry plan works with the event and where it was not able to be used. If your regular method or indicators provide you with insight into how to trade, then use them. If they need modification to address the different market conditions, modify them whilst remembering to supplement your entry plan with an extra set of requirements which determine that an event is actually occurring. If they don’t work, find ones that do and use them.

Then do the same for your exit strategy.

Ultimately, it is important to analyze historical market activities at significant market events, so that you will understand them and be able to trade them successfully. One eye on the market calendar or those economic indicators will then give you some warning when the next profitable event might occur.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/take-advantage-important-economic-events-trading-plan/