我的交易策略

使用交易指標

根據價格和成交量圖決定交易方向。所有的交易指標都是建立在價格走勢圖上的，它們能夠突出顯示價格和成交量行為，卻不能取代原始圖表上的所有信息。當你總結數據的時候，為了突出主要的，總會忽略一些次要的——所以，交易指標不能展現出全部數據。交易指標有下面兩種主要作用：

1. 充當篩選股票的過濾器；
2. 在你詳細研究價格/成交量走勢圖之前充當交易執行摘要。

圖表反映一切

你會經常聽到技術分析師重複同樣的口頭禅：圖表反映一切——所有的市場信息都被反映在當前價格上。我認為，市場通常需要時間來對新消息做出反映。我們不是與一台巨大的可以檢測並分析出市場上細微變化的超級計算機做交易。市場是受大衆的情緒所驅動，這種情緒不僅會對極端事件迅速做出回應，而且會隨著時間的推移發生改變。個人行為在市場中不受歡迎：市場受群體心理支配。

經濟

通過對市場情況的評估，你可以學會預測市場走勢的大趨勢。研究市場的總體情況，尤其是驅動市場價格的貨幣供給。如果沒有錢買股票，價格就會下降。同樣，如果市場充斥著金錢，價格有可能上漲。

預測

避免對市場走勢進行預測。價格任何時候都有可能上升或下降——只是概率不同。當你對走勢做出預測，你就有可能忽視那些證明你判斷錯誤的信號。你可以通過同時列舉出熊市或牛市中做多和做空的信號來消除這種傾向。

不是一門嚴密的科學

在交易市場中，我們永遠不會100%的知道一個特定的形態或一系列事件之後的結果。我們所能期望的最好情況就是對任何結果的預測達到80%的正確率。也就是說，不確定情況的發生概率至少為20%。我的方法是得出每一種結果的百分比，但這也意味著某種程度上的準確。大多數情況下，是不可能達到的。而相關的術語則更顯示出大概性：“這是一個很強的信號”，“這可能是”，“預計將會”，“這不可能”等等。需要記住的是，我們也會遇到市場處於均衡狀態的情況。
分析師被分為三個時間段：短期，中期和長期。當一個時間段給出交易信號的時候，另外一個可能不確定。很明顯，當三個時間段同時給出交易信號的時候，我們的成功就有很大概率。

一個簡單的公式

市場是一個動態系統。我常常把交易比作一場軍事行動，不是因為其對立的性質，而是由於其複雜性、連續的不確定性、沖突的情報並有可破壞最完美的計劃。充分地準備，並為意外留有空間。這個公式很簡單：在成功概率大時交易，並採用適當的風險資金管理——你就會成功。

My Strategy
Using Indicators
Always base decisions on the price/volume chart. All an indicator does is summarize the information already visible on the chart. While useful for highlighting patterns in price and volume behavior, indicators can never replace the depth of information on the original chart. When you summarize data, you sacrifice some of the attributes in order to highlight others — so an indicator never gives the full picture. Indicators have two main purposes:
1. To act as a filter when screening stocks; and
2. To act as a form of executive summary before you examine the price/volume chart in detail.
Do The Charts Discount Everything?
You will often see technical analysts repeating the mantra: the charts discount everything — and all information available to the market is reflected in the current price. I believe that the market often takes time to react to new data. We are not dealing with a vast super-computer that can detect and analyze the full implications of a minute change in market conditions. The market is driven by mass psychology and pulses with the ebb and flow of human emotions. Emotions may respond rapidly to extreme events, but normally change gradually over time. Individuals are seldom comfortable acting alone: the market is dominated by a vast herd instinct.
The Economy
By appraising yourself of market conditions you can learn to anticipate the broad movement of the market. Study general market conditions, especially the supply and demand for money, which drives market prices. If there is no money to buy stocks, prices will fall. Likewise, if the market is awash with money, prices are likely to rise.
Predictions
Try to avoid making predictions. The market can go up or down at any time — it is only the probability (of each move) that varies. When you make predictions, you may lock yourself into a position and be less open to evidence that you are wrong. Attempt to eliminate bias by presenting both possible signals (bull and bear) wherever practical.
 
Not An Exact Science
We never know the outcome of a particular pattern or series of events in the market with 100 per cent certainty. The best that we can hope to achieve is a probability of around 80 per cent for any particular outcome. That means something unexpected will occur at least one in five times.

My approach is to assign probabilities to each possible outcome. Assigning actual percentages would imply a degree of precision which, most of the time, is unachievable. Terms used are more general: "this is a strong signal"; "this is likely"; "expect this to follow"; "this is less likely to occur"; "this is unlikely"; and so on. Bear in mind that there are times, especially when the market is in equilibrium, when we may face several scenarios with fairly even probabilities.

Analysis is also separated into three time frames: short, intermediate and long-term. While one time frame may be clear, another could be uncertain. Obviously, we have the greatest chance of success when all three time frames are clear.
A Simple Formula
The market is a dynamic system. I often compare trading to a military operation, not because of its oppositional nature, but because of the complexity, the continual uncertainty, the conflicting intelligence reports, and the element of chance that can disrupt even the best made plans. Prepare thoroughly, but allow for the unexpected. The formula is simple: trade when probabilities are in your favor and apply proper risk (money) management — and you will succeed.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/trading_strategy.php