我為什麼需要關心波動指標？

進入新年不足兩個月，很多交易者就已經在讨論外匯市場上較高的波動性了。事實上，一些市場交易專家就推測，2月份的波動性很有可能比1月份大！那麼，他們關心的到底是什麼呢?

 
波動性意味著什麼？
首先，我們需要花些時間來了解波動性是什麼。技術層面上說，波動性是衡量價格與歷史趨勢之間的偏差。刨去金融的繁雜性，波動性簡單來說就是指價格行為隨著時間的波動幅度。
我下面的一些不成熟的交易者會把市場波動性比作女孩的情緒，這種情緒通常與不同程度的感性相關。在一個波動劇烈的市場環境中，價格無論對利好消息還是壞消息都會過度反應，這與一些感性的女孩對一些小事小題大做的道理一樣。

波動性如何衡量？
與女孩來無影去無蹤的情緒相反的是，市場波動可以根據過去的價格走勢推斷出來。尤其是，一些市場觀察者喜歡使用波動指數（VIX）來預測價格走勢的波動性。
VIX通過追蹤標普500期權的潛在波動性來預測市場接下來30天内的波動性。有經驗的交易者發現，大幅度的波動性通常會聚集在一起，因此，VIX值升高表示大的波動性即將發生。
VIX也被成為“恐怖指數”，因為上升的VIX可以反映市場的不確定性而下降的VIX則表明市場信心的增強。

VIX指數這些天表現如何？
理解VIX是處於高點還是低點有助於我們將其與平均值對比。在過去的幾十年中，中間值是18.5，意思是，VIX值有一半時間大於18.5，一半時間小於18.5.
由於上週價格快速上升，VIX價格目前維持在21.44左右的高位——自2012年12月美國“財政懸崖”問題占據頭條以來的最高位。這也是四個月以來VIX首次大於20.0！

我現在到底應該做什麼？！
冷靜！實事求是的看待，VIX仍然距離2008年的金融危機60.0的高位很遠，所以現在還沒有必要驚慌。分析師認為，波動的突然上升可能是由於投資者面對價格下滑的可能性争相對沖頭寸。
上面說了這麼多關於市場可能發生的危機，一些交易者也在為最壞的結果做打算。然而，應對市場過度焦慮的最壞方法是持續地懷疑你的交易策略。記住，我們正在一個隨時可能改變價格走勢的市場中做交易，所以，專註於市場並控制你的情緒很重要。

What is the Volatility Index and Why Should I Care?
Less than a couple months into the year and traders are already buzzing about the high volatility in the forex market. In fact, some market experts are predicting that volatility this February might be higher compared to that of January! What in the world are they fussing about?
What does volatility mean?
First up, let’s take a few moments to understand what volatility is all about. Technically speaking, volatility measures the standard deviation of historical market prices. Financial mumbo-jumbo aside, volatility simply refers to how much price action fluctuates over time.

Some of my trading buds compare market volatility to a girl’s mood swings, which are often associated with varying degrees of sensitivity. In a highly volatile market environment, the reaction to positive or negative news is typically magnified, much like a girl who tends to make a big deal out of small issues when she is in a sensitive mood.
How is market volatility measured?
Unlike a girl’s mood swings which come and go without much warning, market volatility can be measured based on past price action. In particular, market watchers like to look at the Volatility Index or VIX to gauge how volatile price action could be in the future.

The VIX keeps track of the implied volatility of S&P500 options and is used to predict market volatility for the next 30 days. Seasoned traders believe that periods of high volatility tend to get clustered, which suggests that rising VIX levels signal that higher market volatility is to be expected.

The VIX is also dubbed as the “fear index” because rising VIX levels reflect market uncertainty while falling VIX levels indicate improving market confidence.
How is the VIX looking these days?
To understand whether the VIX is at a high or low point, it helps to compare it to its average levels. For the past couple of decades, the median stands at 18.5, which simply means that half of the VIX readings came in above 18.5 while the other half printed below 18.5.

Thanks to last week’s jumpy price action, the VIX is currently hovering around 21.44 – its highest level since December 2012 when U.S. fiscal cliff concerns dominated the headlines. This also marks the first time that the VIX landed above the 20.0 level in the past four months!
What the heck am I supposed to do now?!
Calm down! To put things in perspective, the VIX is still miles away from the 60.0 levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis so there’s no reason to panic just yet. Analysts say that the sudden pick-up in volatility may have been caused by investors scrambling to hedge their positions against a potential market decline.

With all the talk of a possible emerging markets crisis, it’s no surprise that several market players are bracing for the worst. However, one of the worst ways to deal with higher levels of market anxiety is to be increasingly anxious with your trading decisions as well. Remember that we are dealing with a potential shift in market environment so it’s crucial to maintain a focused mindset and keep your emotions in check.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.fxstreet.com/education/technical/what-is-the-volatility-index/2014/02/13/