期待已久的加息在2014年並沒有出現，似乎也不太可能出現在2015年。最新的貨幣政策委員會議中，面對通縮壓力，成員一致投票決定維持利率的低位。貨幣市場顯示，利率的提升最早也要到2015年年底。
這對所有金融資產有影響：它意味著債券收入（尤其是發達市場的政府債券）仍然很低。因此，我們認為，投資者現在需要尋找傳統投資以外的、可以獲得超過通脹的收入來源的投資方式。然而投資方式的匮乏伴生於人們對收入需求的增長，因為老年人口退休後需要維持生計。
好消息是，退休人員現在可以靈活的選擇除退休金以外的資金來源方式，但他們需要考慮的是，它們將如何獲得一個穩定的、可靠的收入來源。問題是，從傳統的避險資產比如政府證券撤離會給投資組合帶來很大的波動性，進而影響收入來源。
我們建議投資信托基金在這方面提供一些保護。它們通過這種方式收到以及支付收入有很多結構性優勢。尤其是，它們有能力儲備所獲得的股息或者利息收入；相比之下，單位信托基金必須支付他們得到的一切。這意味著，投資信托基金可以將盈利年份的收入分配到不景氣年份。這就可以幫助投資者獲得一些穩定性。
一些信托公司已經很明智地應用這一機制，並預留大量儲備資金。投資公司協會的統計數據顯示，一些信托公司的儲備金足以支撐10年，而1~2年的儲備金則十分常見。如果投資者的投資組合中股票派息減少，這些儲備金可以確保他們的收入不會發生顯著變化——不論我們多麼謹慎地選擇所投資的股票，這種風險總是存在的。
這種儲備收入的能力讓投資信托基金有很長的股息歷史。這聽起來可能只有一點點，但是為了使投資者維持自己的購買力，投資收益增長應該至少與通貨膨脹持平。根據AIC統計數據，有35家投資信托資金至少連續10年實現了它們的股息增長。這對於投資者來說是另外一種穩定的收入來源。
隨著時間的推移，成本也有可能侵蝕投資資金以及收入。投資信托基金的成本歷來比單位信托基金低，因為前者不需要向財務顧問支付佣金。現在佣金制度已經逐漸被淘汰，二者競争力相對持平，但是投資信托部門在多種情況下降低信托資金的年度管理費，很多信托公司仍在尋找有競争力的成本。
在全球的投資信托中，投資者獲得“收入”有很多渠道：從標準股本收益基金到更加專業性的投資比如基礎設施，可轉換債券以及商業資產。投資者可以使投資收入來源多樣化，我們相信在投資激活特殊以及稀缺的情況下這一點會變得越來越重要。
我們在阿伯丁的業務顯示，有很多信托公司除了本金的增長外，也向投資者提供額外的可靠的收入增長。所有的這些公司都使用阿伯丁的投資方式，它可以確保收入的穩定並實現波動性最小化。我們的一個關鍵步驟是尋找那些可以彈性應對不同經濟情況的高質量信托公司，然後進行長期投資。位於我們投資組合中的公司因此有能力並願意支付我們股息。
穆雷收入信托是我們的一個旗艦收入信托。它創辦於1923年,已經建立了一個冗長的股息的歷史。它自1974年以來每年支付給股東的收益都在增加。它每股的年收益在4%。該基金集中於英國最高質量的藍籌股公司，這些公司在全球都有很強的競争力並且有很好的資產負債表：聯合利華,葛蘭素史克,皮爾森和保誠都是位於其持有量前10位。
它自2006年開始一直由查爾斯·盧克以及英國阿伯丁股權合作團隊經營。除了尋找可以帶來收入多樣化的公司之外，盧克也買入期權。這或許會限制資本增長潛力，但可以確保股息持續地位於高位。
我從2009年開始經營丹尼丁收入增長投資信托，這是收入投資者的另外一個選擇。同樣基於阿伯丁投資理念，我也專註於那些我所了解的公司，我領略過它們的經營方式並長時間地測試它們的承諾與責任。同時，我也在尋找那些代表高價值的公司。盡管阿伯丁投資方式無疑是一種“價值”投資，我們仍然希望為自己所投資的公司付出合理的價錢。
尋求除英國以外的投資市場的優勢已經有依據可尋。根據最近的亨德森全球股息指數顯示，全球股息在2014年有可能達到1.2萬億美元，2015年將會進一步增長。它發現，每年潛在的股息增長率為9.7%。更重要的是，增長強勁的地區是在美國，歐洲，以及除日本以外的亞洲新興市場，這些地區的股息增長都是兩位數。相比來說，英國，加拿大，日本則相對落後。對於我們來說，這為我們尋求英國以外的股息收入提供依據。
近年來全球許多收益性信托基金成立並利用這種新興的全球股息文化。穆雷國際投資信托公司，相比之下，成立於1907年，自2004年來由佈魯斯經營，歷史收益連續達到4.2%。它的五年股息收益高達6.3%。
信托基金主要探尋26個經濟體，重點是尋找那些可以帶來收入以及股息收益的公司。這種方法保證了收益的安全性。多樣性則帶來了額外的穩定性。
利率上漲或許不會對收入投資者來說帶來幫助，因為有別的方式可以幫助投資者帶來多樣性、穩定的、高於通脹率的收入來源。我們相信投資信托基金是收入投資者的一個自然而然的選擇。
Investment trust opportunities for steady income
The long-awaited interest rate rise did not appear in 2014 and increasingly it seems unlikely to appear in 2015 either. In the latest Monetary Policy Committee minutes, the members voted unanimously to keep rates at record lows in the face of deflationary pressures. Money markets are now suggesting there will be no rise until the end of 2015 at the earliest.
This has an impact for all financial assets: It means that the income available from bonds, particularly developed market government bonds, remains low. We believe, therefore, that investors now need to look beyond these traditional sources to achieve an above-inflation income. This paucity of income options comes at a time when income is in increasing demand, as an ageing population needs to support itself in retirement.
The good news is that retirees now have the flexibility to seek alternative options beyond annuities for income, but they need to consider how they are going to achieve a steady and reliable income stream. The problem with moving away from traditionally ‘safe haven’ assets, such as government bonds, is that it can introduce greater volatility into an investor portfolio and – perhaps more importantly – into the income stream received.
We would suggest that investment trusts offer some protection in this respect. They have a number of structural advantages in the way they receive and pay out income. Notably, investment trusts have the ability to reserve income they receive from dividend or interest payments; in contrast, unit trusts have to pay out everything they receive. This means investment trusts can set aside income in fat years, to pay it out in lean years. This helps give investors some stability.
Many trusts have used this facility wisely and built up significant reserves. Statistics from the Association of Investment Companies show a number of trusts have up to 10 years’ worth of reserves, while one to two years’ worth of reserves is commonplace. These reserves can help ensure investors do not see significant variability in their income if there are dividend cuts for stocks within the portfolio – which is always a risk, however scrupulously we select our stocks.
This ability to reserve income has helped ensure that many trusts have a lengthy dividend history, growing their dividends year on year. This may sound like a niche point, but those relying on income from their investments need it to grow at least in line with inflation, in order to preserve their purchasing power. According to AIC statistics, there are 35 investment trusts that have grown their dividends for at least 10 years in a row. This is another source of stability for income investors.
Costs can also erode both income and capital from investments over time. The costs for investment trusts have historically been lower than those for unit trusts because investment trusts do not pay commission to financial advisers. Now commission is being phased out and the playing field has levelled a little, but the investment trust sector has reduced the annual management fee of trusts in many cases, leaving many trusts still looking competitive on costs.
Within the investment trust universe, there is a range of options for income seekers. These range from standard equity income funds to more esoteric options such as infrastructure, convertible bonds or commercial property. This allows investors to diversify their income stream, which – we believe – is increasingly important at a time when income opportunities are becoming more idiosyncratic and scarce
Within our range at Aberdeen, there are a number of trusts that aim to provide this reliable, growing income stream to investors, alongside some growth in capital. All of these trusts use the Aberdeen investment approach, which we have designed to ensure stability and minimise volatility. A key part of our process is uncovering those quality companies with resilience in different economic conditions and investing in them for the longer term. The companies in our income portfolios will therefore have the ability and appetite to pay dividends consistently.
Murray Income trust is one of our flagship income trusts. It launched in 1923 and has built a lengthy dividend history. It has increased its payout to shareholders every year since 1974 and its shares currently yield around 4% income annually. The fund is focused on the highest quality UK blue-chip companies, all of which will be globally competitive and have strong balance sheets: Unilever, GlaxoSmithKline, Pearson and prudential all form part of its top 10 holdings.
It has been managed by Charles Luke since 2006, in collaboration with the wider Aberdeen UK equity team. As well as targeting a diversified blend of income-generative companies, Luke writes call options to boost the income on the trust. This may limit capital growth potential, but ensures that the dividend remains high and consistent.
I have managed the Dunedin Income Growth Investment trust since 2009, which is another option for income seekers. This is also underpinned by the Aberdeen investment philosophy. I focus on those companies I know well, where I’ve met management and tested their commitment and responsibility over time. I also want companies that represent good value. Although Aberdeen’s style is by no means ‘value’ investment, we always want to ensure that we are paying a fair price for the companies in which we invest.
The advantages of looking to markets outside the UK for income have been well-documented. According to the most recent Henderson Global Dividend index, global dividends are likely to hit $1.2 trillion in 2014, with further growth expected in 2015. It found that underlying dividend growth was 9.7% year on year. perhaps more importantly, it found that the strongest areas of growth were in the Us, Europe, emerging markets and Asia pacific ex Japan, which all saw double-digit dividend increases. In contrast, the UK, Canada and Japan lagged behind. For us, this makes the case for looking beyond the UK for income.
A lot of global income-focused unit trusts have been launched in recent years to capitalize on this burgeoning global dividend culture. Murray International Investment trust, in contrast, was launched in 1907. Managed by Bruce stout since 2004, Murray International has a 4.2% historic yield and has grown that income consistently for more than a decade. Its five-year dividend growth has been 6.3%.
The trust has exposure to 26 economies and stout’s focus is on identifying firms that are increasing both earnings and dividends. This approach helps ensure that the dividend is secure and comes from a variety of different companies. Diversity should bring additional stability.
Interest rates rises may not bail out income seekers, but there are other options available to create a diversified, stable and inflation-protected income stream. We believe investment trusts are a natural option for income seekers.
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