隨著傳統的可以帶來豐厚利潤的投資領域日趨變得艱難，投資者也在尋找別的市場商機。在金融危機之前，投資者清楚地知道某些領域可以帶來豐厚的股息，其中銀行總是接近榜首；食品零售業、公共事業、大的醫藥公司以及石油天然氣公司也是很好的投資選擇。
今天，投資前景大為不同。大部分銀行都在艱難地應對危機，盡管匯豐銀行仍然呈現出一個合理的收益，但是總體來說，銀行領域對投資者的吸引力很小。
對於食品零售商來說，2014年是多災之年。樂購（Tesco）預計將會在2月份支付過去12個月内的4.6便士股息，僅為去年同期14.76便士的三分之一。分析師不認為以後會出現任何複蘇。
不久，2015年的股利預計僅是5.3便士(www.digitallook.com)。樂購在去年上了大部分的頭條，莫裡森超市（Morrisons）緊隨其後，塞恩斯伯裡超市（Sainsbury）也透露出未來股利將會減少的迹象。
賈斯汀·庫珀，人均資產服務股東解決方案的主管，他說“英國的超市正在經歷轉型，並且它們將花很長一段時間來重新設計它們的商業模式”。
那些以前可以帶來豐厚股息回報領域的前景很不明朗。公共事業已經淪為政治足球，它們的命運只有在大選之後才會知道。石油和天然氣巨頭，英國石油（BP）以及荷蘭皇家殼牌的股利派發的股息歷來最高，但是去年卻受到成本上升、英鎊走強以及油價下降的影響。如果石油價格持續低位，股利幾乎可以肯定是會受影響的。
然而前景並不都是黯淡的。英國今年人均股息預測將會上升5.5%，達到837億，與去年相比增長小於2%。英國聖詹姆斯收入基金的經理，Majedie說“從長期看，紅利一直在穩步增長。過去十年中，FTSE實現了年均股利增長7%。在英國有很多很棒的投資公司”。
整個市場的股利增長顯然是一個積極的趨勢，但是更深入的研究可以提供現在以及未來關於哪些投資將會帶來更多收入回報的線索。盡管基數低，但是FTSE250的股利的增長遠大於FTSE100。比如，在去年的第三季度主要指數的支出占89%，但股利同比下降1.1%。FTSE250指數的支出僅占9%，但股利收入上升了7.6%。
庫珀說，“FTSE100是不正常的，因為有許多公司報告以歐元或美元的形式來反映來自海外的利潤”。所以，如果英鎊走強的話，那麼股利將會減少，尤其是當公司報告以美元宣佈，後來卻轉換成英鎊。同樣，這些公司對於全球的經濟動蕩更加敏感。中盤股國内指向性更強，並且趨於週期性，所以，當英國經濟複蘇的時候表現會相對好。
房地產是這個趨勢的一個例子。它們不僅走出了經濟危機的低點，而且對待資本採取 了一種更為嚴格的方式——給股東分發更多的股利而不是投資於昂貴的土地。換句話說，它們能夠確保收入大於所支付的股息。
Shore Capital的Alex Stewart說，“當你尋找能夠帶來股利收入的公司時，最重要一點是能夠得到穩定收入”。從這一點來看，買入最高收益的股票不見得是最好的策略。投資者應該考慮收入來源的安全性。比如，食品生產商Cranswick公司，自從1970s首次公開募股以來，每年都會增加股息分配。對於你來說，這就是一個持續的增長。
就部門來看，煙酒公司，電信以及交通部門通常是成熟的企業，具有回報投資者的趨勢。煙酒公司或許會引起道德投資者的側目，但是它們可以持續的獲利，而通信股票比如英國電信（BT）、沃達豐（Vodafone）甚至Talk Talk都會帶來大量資金回報。
沃達豐在英國歷來是最大的股息派發者之一—去年第一季度它向投資者派發£160億股息，緊隨其競争對手美國移動運營商威瑞森（Verizon）之後。它在未來必定是一個慷慨的股利分發公司。
當然，預測收入增長來源不是一門精確的科學。Reid採用一種集中方式尋找那些可能在未來產生豐厚股利的公司。“你需要尋找具有上升潛力的公司。我們看它6年來的歷史以及對未來三年的預測。接下來我們進行6項測試：它們是如何盈利的，它們的資產負債表的競争力度，它們有競争力的優勢，以及它們的估值。目標是，我們投資的公司中有60家左右的公司在未來三年内將會超越競争對手”。
Reid和別的投資者一樣，他的方法是非常具體的，他認為收益是非常關鍵的。“看待股息問題需要看成本及收益，對於我們來說，股息收益應該是成本的1.3倍並且呈上升趨勢”。
Ups and downs of UK dividends
St. James’s place Wealth Management
As the traditional sectors for providing generous dividends face tough conditions, investors are looking elsewhere for their market-beating yields.
Before the financial crisis, investors in search of income knew that certain sectors could be relied upon to deliver generous dividends and market-beating yields. Banks were always at, or near, the top of the list; food retailers and utilities were good bets, too, as were the big pharmaceutical companies and oil and gas majors.
Today, the picture is quite different. Most banks struggled to survive the financial crisis and, although HSBC still offers a reasonable yield, the sector as a whole has little appeal for the income investor.
As for the food retailers, 2014 was their annus horribilis. Tesco is forecast to pay a dividend of around 4.6p for the 12 months to February, a third of the 14.76p it paid out at the same time in 2014. Analysts do not expect a recovery any time
Soon, with the dividend for 2015 expected to be just 5.3p (www.digitallook.com). Tesco delivered the most headlines last year but Morrisons was not far behind, and Sainsbury’s also signaled that dividends will be lower in the future.
‘UK supermarkets are suffering from structural changes in the market, and it will take a long time for them to re-engineer their business models,’ says Justin Cooper, head of shareholder solutions at Capita Asset services.
The outlook is far from certain for other erstwhile income sectors, too. Utilities have become political footballs and their fate will not be known until after the general election. Oil and gas majors, Bp and royal Dutch shell, have traditionally been among the highest dividend payers in the market, but last year they were hit by rising costs and a strong pound in the first half, followed by falling oil prices in the second. If lower oil prices continue, dividends are almost certain to be affected.
And yet the future is not all bleak. Capita predicts that underlying dividends in the UK will rise 5.5% to £83.7 billion this year, having increased by less than 2% last year
Over the long term, too, dividends have been growing steadily, as Chris Reid of Majedie, manager of the St. James’s place UK Income fund, points out. ‘Income from the FTSE All-share has increased by an average of 7% per annum over the past 10 years. We have some fantastic income providers in the UK,’ he says.
Dividend growth across the market is clearly a positive trend, but deeper analysis provides further clues about where best to look for income, not just now but in the future. FTSE 250 dividends are increasing significantly faster than those in the FTSE 100, albeit from a lower base. In the third quarter of last year, for example, the main index accounted for almost 89% of total pay-outs, but dividends fell 1.1% year-on-year. The FTSE 250 accounts for just over 9% of total pay-outs, but dividends within the index rose 7.6%.
‘the FTSE 100 is unusual because so many companies report in dollars or euros and derive profits from overseas,’ says Cooper. ‘So when the pound is strong, dividends suffer, particularly if they are declared in dollars and then converted to sterling. Equally, these companies are more sensitive to global economic turbulence. Mid-cap stocks are more domestically oriented, and tend to be more cyclical, so they do better when the UK economy is recovering.
House builders are an example of this trend. Not only have they recovered dramatically from their post-crisis lows, but they are also determined to adopt a more disciplined approach to capital – and that means returning more money to shareholders through dividends rather than investing in overpriced land. In other words, they are making sure that the amount they pay out in dividends is well covered by earnings.
‘When you are looking for dividend growth, the most important thing to look for in terms of sustainability is cover,’ says Alex Stewart from broker shore Capital. ‘On that basis, buying the highest-yielding stocks may not always be the best policy. Investors should instead focus on security of income flow. A company such as food producer Cranswick, for example, has raised its dividend every year since its IPO (initial public offering) in the 1970s. That’s sustainable growth for you.’
On a sector basis, tobacco stocks, large alcoholic drinks companies, telecoms providers and transport groups are often mature businesses, with a tendency to reward their investors. The first two may raise eyebrows among ethical investors, but smoking and drinking continue to deliver profits, while telecoms stocks such as BT, Vodafone and even TalkTalk tend to generate plenty of cash.
Vodafone has traditionally been one of the largest dividend payers in the UK – in the first quarter of last year it returned almost £16 billion to investors following the sale of its stake in Us mobile operator, Verizon. Now a smaller business, it has pledged to remain a generous distributor of dividends in the future.
Of course, predicting where income growth will come from is not an exact science. Majedie’s Reid adopts a focused approach, seeking out companies that are likely to pay market-beating dividends in the future: ‘You have to look for companies that are raising their game. We look at their six-year history and their forecasts for the next three years. We then carry out four tests: how they make money, the strength of their balance sheet, their competitive position and their valuation. The idea is that the 60 or so companies in our fund will leapfrog the competition over three years.’
Reid’s approach is highly specific but, like other income seekers in the market, he believes earnings cover is crucial. ‘It is a question of looking at the dividend, seeing how much it costs and how much it is covered. For us, the cash dividend cover should be 1.3 times and rising.’
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