商品價格的下降會導致通貨緊縮嗎？

                                                                                                    Colin Twiggs，2014.12.3

一些讀者表達了關於對商品價格下降（尤其是原油價格）是否會導致通貨緊縮的擔心。這種擔心混淆了原因和表象。
 
除了由貨幣緊縮導致的價格下降之外，大部分的價格下降都是良性的。當供大於求時，商品價格就可能下降，但是這會很快被消費者消費行為的改變而吸收。就儲蓄而言，可自由支配收入上升，所以總的需求是不受影響的。

然而，貨幣供給緊縮導致的價格下降影響更為嚴重。基础貨幣供給數量的緩慢增加（低於實際GDP增長）導致更少的錢買同樣的商品，使價格下降。這種情況下供需是不變的，但是貨幣緊縮導致了價格的下降。然而，工資是不會隨著價格的下降而下降的，公司盈利減少，裁員，產出降低。低就業率、低收入導致總需求收縮，導致企業進一步降低產出。

貨幣緊縮同時也給銀行的借貸帶來壓力。這種危險性Irving Fisher在20世紀30年代就已經明確表達了出來。信貸收縮不僅降低了新的投資行為，也會迫使現有的借貸者清算他們的一部分資產，主要是股票以及房產。抛售的激增以及信貸的有限性導致了資產價格的降低。銀行的借貸隨著資產價格降低進一步收縮，最終產生循環效應——價格進一步下降。這就是央行的“完美風暴”。下圖顯示了2009年我們距離通貨緊縮螺旋是多麼的近。
 
2009年，基础貨幣的緩慢上升導致銀行借貸的急速收縮（零以下）。美聯儲迅速採取的措施成功避免了金融市場再次陷入1930s的危機。美聯儲在10月表明它將會通過削減QE以及不再擴大自己的資產負責表的方式來支援貨幣供給量的增長。2008年的貨幣緊縮會再次到來嗎？

答案是：不會。下圖中美聯儲的資產負債表，我們能看到紅色的總資產上升緩慢。但是銀行在美聯儲的儲蓄——超額準備金，每年利率在0.25%——增長更加緩慢。這意味著流入銀行系統的實際資金沒有減少，而是在增加。
 
下圖顯示了淨增長率大於20%（總資產減去超額準備金存款）。預期它將隨著時間的推移增速放緩，但是美聯儲可以調整超額準備金的存款利率來保證它大於0.
 
對於歐元來說，通貨緊縮的是一個更大的問題。在2012年“盡一切努力”拯救之後，歐央行又過早的收縮其資產負債表——在病人完全康复之前放棄治療。與美聯儲一樣，它們也沒有足夠多的可以緩解通縮影響的超額存款準備金。
 
結果是經濟增長搖搖欲墜，價格水平下降到接近通縮的危險水平。
 
歐央行似乎意識到了它的錯誤，它表明會在需要的時候擴展資產負債以避免貨幣緊縮。如果它已經從過去的錯誤中吸取教訓，那麼它能夠避免通貨緊縮的任何威脅。

Will falling commodity prices caus

e deflation?
By Colin Twiggs
December 3rd, 2014 1:00 a.m. ET (5:00 p:m AEDT)

Some readers expressed concern about falling commodity prices, especially crude oil, and whether this will cause global deflation. This confuses the cause with the symptom.
Falling prices are largely benign except where caused by a contraction of the money supply. Commodity prices may fall when there is an excess of supply over demand, but this is soon absorbed by changes in consumer behavior. Discretionary spending will rise in response to the savings, so that aggregate demand is unaffected.
A contraction in the money supply, however, is far more serious. Slow growth in the monetary base (below growth of real GDP) results in less money chasing the same goods, driving down prices. Supply and demand in this case are unchanged, but prices fall because of a contraction in the money supply. Wages, however, are sticky and do not fall in line with prices, leading to falling profits, cuts in production and job layoffs. Falling income from lower profits and fewer jobs leads to a contraction in aggregate demand, causing further cuts to production and income.
Contraction of the money supply also places pressure on banks to reduce lending. This danger was highlighted by Irving Fisher in the 1930s. Contracting credit reduces not only new investment but forces existing borrowers to liquidate some of their assets, mainly stocks and property. The surge of selling, and limited availability of credit, drives down asset prices. A feedback loop results, with falling asset prices prompting banks to further contract lending — in turn causing more price falls. That is the central bankers' equivalent of a perfect storm. The graph below shows how close we came in 2009 to a deflationary spiral.
Slow growth in the monetary base caused a sharp contraction in bank lending (below zero) in 2009. Only prompt action by the Fed averted a 1930's-style collapse of the financial system.
The Fed indicated in October that it will curtail QE and no longer expand its balance sheet to support money supply growth. Should we expect another contraction of the money supply as in 2008?
The answer is: NO. When we look at the graph of the Fed balance sheet below, we can see that total asset growth [red] is slowing. But bank deposits at the Fed — excess reserves that earn interest at 0.25% p.a. — are slowing at an even faster rate. That means that the actual amount of money flowing into the banking system is not contracting, but increasing.
The following graph shows a net growth rate (of Total Assets minus Excess Reserves on Deposit) of more than 20 percent. Expect growth to slow over time, but the Fed can adjust the interest rate payable on excess reserves to ensure that it remains positive.
Deflation is a far bigger problem for the Euro. After a "whatever it takes" surge in 2012, the ECB attempted to contract its balance sheet far too soon — withdrawing treatment before the patient had fully recovered. They also do not have excess reserves on deposit, like the Fed, which could soften the impact.
The result has been faltering economic growth and price levels falling dangerously close to deflation.
The ECB appears to have recognized its error, indicating that it will expand its balance sheet if necessary to avert a monetary contraction. If they learn from their past mistakes, the ECB should be able to avoid any threat of deflation.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/2014-12-03-economy.php