很多人都是糟糕的投資者。
很少有事情會像錢一樣始終萦繞在我們的大腦中。
我們讨厭失去它。並且當我們盈利的時候，我們也會感覺不高興。
如果我們的利潤沒有兌現，我們擔心失去它。如果我們賣出獲取利潤，我們會對失去任何可能的利潤一直感覺後悔：如果我們的持倉多堅持一會，我們就可以掙取更多的資金。
簡而言之，我們註定是可怕的投資者。但你或許意識不到究竟有多麼的可怕：
大多數投資者表現很糟糕
美國研究者Dalbar在他最新的《金融時報》專欄中發表的投資者行為分析的定量分析報告給出一個令人著迷同時又有些令人沮喪的調查結果。簡單地說，它論證我們最大的敵人是投資者，也就是我們自己。該報告將市場盈利與實際投資者取得的盈利進行比較，結果是，坦率地說，非常令人震驚。
標普500 (這是美國一項研究)過去30年的年回報率為11.6%。這是一個非常好的回報——遙遙領先同一時間的通貨膨脹。那麼，你認為投資者盈利率是多少？
如果你讓我猜的話，我會說6%。比起市場盈利，這個結果是非常糟糕的。畢竟，很多人投資活躍基金，這通常表現不佳。同時，很多投資者的投資借助昂貴的投資顧問的建議或者投資工具，這也會降低他們的盈利。並且，他們也更容易在不恰當的時間買入或賣出。但是，6%比起實際數據已經是非常好了。一般的交易者的年盈利僅為3.79%，稍大於通貨膨脹。很明顯，比起11.6%，它是有很大差距的。
成本以及那些表現不佳的資金管理者導致了這個局面。但是，Auther說，“市場走勢總體上是由這些在錯誤時間進場的投資者驅動的。”人們在錯誤的時間賣出或者買進，市場下跌，他們後悔自己的決定，然後反向交易而不是等待時機。
當然，大部分投資者這麼做事為了自我價值的實現。畢竟，有些人會在底部由於恐慌而賣出。如果他們不那麼做，也就不存在崩盤了。
但是，這確實非常令人擔憂。當我們預測未來收益的時候，我們過於樂觀。如果你看到行業預計養老金增長的平均數據，你將會發現它比3~4%稍大。同時，這也是非常振奮的。因為你不需要比普通的投資者做得更好，你只需要在別的投資者虧損的時候保持鎮定。
最大的問題是，你如何做到這一點
如何減少你對資金的情緒反應
關鍵是盡量是你的交易過程“自動化”，盡量繞過自己的本能。
這一點我在過去已經讨論過，但是你的核心策略應該包括合適的資產分配。換句話說，你將資產按比例投資債券，股票，黃金，外匯等等。接下來你決定最好的投資方式。交易所基金應該是你的首選。每季度或者每半年對資金分配進行調整：如果你的資產配置不正常，你應該通過賣出自己過多擁有的資產、買進自己缺少的資產來調整資金配置比例。遵循“高賣低買”的原則。
如果出現崩盤，不必驚慌。因為你將會在低價位買入。並且，你也不必為價格走得過高而擔心，因為你會在價格更加高的時候賣出。這很重要。你將自己的情緒從市場脫離——這是摧毀大部分投資者回報的罪魁禍首。
逆向交易
當然，如果你是一個積極的投資者，那你就可以利用別人的投資心理獲利。正如Auther指出的那樣：“大量的錯誤決定意味著總會有很多人站在交易的另一端，當別人害怕的時候，投資基金會買入；當別人貪婪的時候，它會賣出。”換句話說，逆向交易應該會有較好的結果。
We’re hardwired to be terrible investors – here’s how to get around that
Few things mess with our heads like money.
We hate losing it. And when we make it, we don’t feel happy.
If our profits are paper ones, we fret about losing them. And if we sell out and take our profits, we spend all our time regretting the ‘loss’ of anything extra that could have been made if we’d hung on for a bit longer.
In short, we are hardwired to be appalling investors.
But you might be surprised to realise just how appalling.
Most investors are simply terrible at investing
John Authers picks over the Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour report by US researcher Dalbar in his latest FT column. It makes for fascinating and somewhat depressing reading. To cut a long story short, it proves yet again that investors are our own worst enemies.
Basically, the report compares the return that the market makes, with the return made by actual investors. The results are, frankly, shocking.
The S&P 500 (this is a US study) returned 11.6% a year over the past 30 years. That’s an excellent return – way ahead of inflation over the same time. So how much do you think investors made?
If you’d asked me to take a punt at the answer, I’d have said 6%. That’s pretty awful compared to the market. But after all, lots of investors use active funds, which often underperform the market. And lots of investors use overly-expensive advisers or vehicles to invest, which hurts their returns too. And they’re also prone to buying and selling at exactly the wrong time.
But 6% is positively genius compared with the actual figure. Your typical investor only made 3.79% a year. That’s barely ahead of inflation. And obviously it’s an awful lot less than 11.6%.
Costs and poor active management contribute to this. But, says Authers, “the overwhelming driver is bad timing by investors.” People sell at the wrong time. Or they buy in, the market goes down, they regret their decision and they reverse it, rather than hanging in there.
Of course, a lot of this is self-fulfilling. Someone has to panic and sell at the bottom, after all. If they didn’t, there wouldn’t be crashes.
But it’s quite worrying really. We tend to be over-optimistic when we forecast our future returns. If you look at the average numbers the industry uses to predict your pension fund’s growth for example, then you’ll find they’re a lot higher than 3-4% a year.
At the same time, it’s quite heartening. Because it means you don’t need to do much to be better at investing than the average investor. You just need to find a way to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs.
Big question is – how do you do that?
How to short-circuit your emotional reaction to money
The key is to try to ‘automate’ as much of your investment process as possible, and bypass your own instincts where you can.
I’ve talked about this a lot in the past, but your core strategy should involve coming up with a suitable asset allocation. In other words, you divide your money into pots, putting a certain percentage into bonds, equities, gold, cash etc.
You then decide on the best way to invest in each theme. Cheap tracker and exchange-traded funds should be your first port of call. Save into these funds regularly, and set up a quarterly or half-yearly date to review your asset allocation.
If it gets too far out of whack with your asset allocation percentages, you adjust by selling the assets you own too much of, and buying those you don’t own enough of. That way you ‘sell high’ and ‘buy low’ automatically.
If there’s a crash, you don’t panic. Because you’ll be buying as stuff gets cheaper. And you don’t fret about whether the market is getting too high or not, because you’re selling when it gets more expensive.
This really matters. You’re removing your emotions from the market timing process – and that’s the thing that really destroys most people’s returns.
Being contrarian pays
Of course, if you’re a more active investor, you can also profit handsomely from other people’s investment psychology. As Authers notes: “mass poor decision-making virtually guarantees that there will always be someone on the other side of the trade when a fund tries to buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy.” In other words, being contrarian should pay off.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供，文章來源：http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-hardwired-to-be-terrible-investors/