中國經濟的增長速度比政府預期的要緩慢很多，人民銀行進一步降息的可能性也加大。
根據歷法，2015年是羊年，而羊是與平靜與繁榮聯系在一起的。但是中國股市卻只有繁榮，沒有平靜。國内股市在過去的12個月上漲了將近100%，股價似乎被過高估值，這很有可能會導致市場泡沫的產生。投資者對股票的需求是如此之大，這股熱情也湧進了香港。那麼，中國股市的動力會一直保持還是它實際上就是即將到來的泡沫？
首先，講解幾個學術術語。中國大陸股票市場被稱為A股市場。A股只能由中國人或者持有特權的國外投資者購買。對於那些希望進入國際資本市場的中國公司，它們也會在香港證券交易所上市，擁有H股或者國際共享股。
同一家公司在兩家不同的證券交易所的價格有可能不同，因為每家交易所都有特定的投資者，而且A股價格自始以來都比H股高。年初開始的滬港通計劃允許中國投資者投資H股，香港的投資者也可以投資A股。然而，南北流向的資金量卻受到限制。
隨著A股觸及到7年來的新高，滬港通的限制也有所放寬，中國證券投資基金可以參與滬港通交易。
中國投資者對這一發展非常興奮，很明顯，他們可以買到價格低廉的H股，三月份賬戶數量達到1,670,000，平均資金為240,000。這種熱情一定程度上是由中國政府推動，它希望投資者將投資的重點從價格不斷升高的當地市場轉向國際市場。
市場的反彈幅度令人吃驚，香港恒生指數三天漲幅超過10%，今年已經上漲了19%。資金仍然不斷地流入，滬港通每日17億美元的限額被不斷地觸及。我們不得不猜測金融市場泡沫已經產生，因為金融市場泡沫在破裂前是很難識別的。
任何資產或者市場指數表現出這種強勁的上升趨勢，意味著它的大調整即將到來。近期的調整和獲利平倉都是合理的。然而，中長期來看，H股的漲勢仍然可能繼續。香港市場的股票價格仍然低於大陸價格，所以港股還會保持一個較長時間的增長。恒生指數仍然以低於長期平均的價格交易，A股相對於H股仍然存在溢價，在價差彌補之前，需求仍然會不斷增長。
壞消息就是好消息
經濟增長速度比中國政府官員預期的要慢，人們對中國人民銀行的進一步降息或者採取財政刺激措施的期望也在不斷加大。最後，資金進入港滬通仍然有一定的困難，市場有可能加大流通量。A股、H股的資金量將會有不同的流量限制。同時，如果只是為了跟上基準，一些基金公司有可能被迫買入股票。中國市場占據摩根士丹利亞太指數（不包括日本）的22%以及新興市場指數的24%。任何減持中國股票的基準投資者都有可能被迫買入。
然而，問題是，套利機會褪色後，投資者需要看到中國經濟基本面的重大改善以及大量的企業盈利。沒有該支持的話，那麼反彈將是十分短暫的，不是真正的“金毛羊”。
Should Investors Be Concerned About China?
Economic growth is slowing faster than Chinese officials want and there is increasing anticipation for further rate cuts from the Peoples Bank of China
This year the year of the sheep according to the Chinese zodiac calendar and is associated with the characteristics of calmness and prosperity. Only one of those applies to Chinese equity markets at present and it’s not calmness.
The domestic stock market in China has gained nearly 100% in the last 12 months and valuations in the market are starting to look very lofty prompting calls of a market bubble. The demand for equities is so great from Chinese investors that enthusiasm is pouring over into the Hong Kong market. So can the momentum in Chinese equities be sustained or is this really a bubble on the brink?
First a few technicalities, the local Chinese market is known as the A share market, A shares are stocks in companies that can only be purchased by local Chinese investors or by foreign investors who have been given special access. For Chinese companies wishing to access international capital markets they may also list on the Hong Kong stock exchange and have a H-share or international share class.
The same company listed on both exchanges may trade at different prices because each can only be accessed by certain investors and because of this A-share stocks have historically been more expensive than the H share stocks.
Near the start of the year the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme was launched which allowed investors in China to invest in the H share stocks and investors in Hong Kong to invest in the A share class. However, the amount of money that could flow north and south was restricted as were the investors who could access it.
But as the A-share market hit a seven year high, the restrictions on who could use the Stock Connect programme were relaxed allowing Chinese mutual funds to partake in the programme.
The euphoria of Chinese investors at this development and being able to buy the cheaper H-share market is clearly evident in the surge of new investment accounts being opened in China, jumping from 1,670,000 against an average March value of 240,000. To some degree this enthusiasm is being propagated by the Chinese government who want investors to shift their focus from the increasingly expensive local market to an international one.
The market rally has been staggering the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index gained just over 10% in three days and is up 19% this year. This isn’t stopping the money flowing and the Stock Connect’s daily quota of $1.7 billion continues to be tested. This has to speculation about a possible bubble. The trouble with bubbles is that they are very hard to identify until they have popped.
Any asset or market index that rises this far this fast is ripe for large correction, and some near term consolidation or profit taking seems sensible. However, over a more medium term time frame the rally in the H-shares could continue.
The catch up in the Hong Kong market could run for a little longer as valuations in that market are lower than their Chinese counterparts. The Hang Seng is still trading at below its long run average and A-shares are still at a premium to H-shares, and until that gap closes demand will persist.
Bad News is Good News
Economic growth is slowing faster than perhaps Chinese officials want and there is increasing anticipation for further rate cuts from the Peoples Bank of China and fiscal stimulus measures from the government.
Finally, the market may be supported flows. The quota on the Stock Connect may be extended and given the difference in size between the A and H share markets there is still plenty of pressure forcing capital through that system. Meanwhile, some funds may be forced into buying Chinese equities if only to keep up with benchmarks. China accounts for 22% and 24% of the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index and the MSCI Emerging Market Index respectively. Any benchmark focused investor who has been underweight China may now be forced into buying shares.
Nevertheless, the question is after the arbitrage opportunities have faded investors will need to see evidence of significant improvement in China’s economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. Without this the rally could be very short term indeed and prove not to be the sheep with the golden fleece.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/136975/should-investors-be-concerned-about-china.aspx