在股票開始暴跌之前中國一切都正常，如果政府沒有介入它將繼續下跌，其中包括用臨時禁止賣空甚至逮捕，中斷IPO，花費大量資金來支撐股市，忽視過度的債務和經濟增長放緩鼓勵投資者購買股票，施壓給國有銀行貸款給下滑的商業。

雖然這些都發生了，中國還對特別提款權和成為儲備貨幣抱有希望，但是國際貨幣基金組織已經宣佈2016年9月之前將不會做出改變。

上面兩個情況導致中國政府將其貨幣相對美元貶值2%。這聽起來可能不是一個巨大的變動，但是2015年8月11日之前最大的變動為0.16%。從2005年開始，人民幣相對美元升值了25%，這為中國政府提供變動的空間。但是這重要嗎？（相關閱讀請見：《中國怎樣管理其貨幣供應》）

紅色多米諾骨牌

中國是世界上第二大經濟體，並且許多人相信在本世紀某個時間它將超過美國成為最大的經濟體。如果你觀察過長期趨勢、過度債務、為了GDP的過度建造，你就能計算出這不可能發生。（更多請見《現在是買入中國股票的時機嗎？》）

美國現在處於搖搖欲墜的經濟形勢，但是美國也已找到回到繁榮的方法。當你把美國人的聰明才智和其豐富的自然資源結合起來，整個21世紀美國將繼續是最大的經濟體。然而，在那之前由於通貨緊縮將會有一段非常困難的過程。

而中國可能不會達到通貨緊縮，那是不可能的情況。當前，中國的經濟增長被估計為7%，但這似乎不大可能。中國經濟增長達到7%的唯一方法就是中國政府扭曲數字。中國上半年經濟增長達到7%的唯一原因就是金融服務表現異常良好和股市飙升。股票已經不再上升。（更多請看《投資者應該看空中國嗎》）

把7月作為中國經濟的一個小樣本。出口下降8.3%而汽車銷量下滑7%。中國政府貶值其貨幣的一個原因是讓國際買家能夠負擔的起他們的商品。（相關閱讀：《怎樣投資中國的汽車行業》）

同樣是7月，國有銀行一共貸出2400億美元貸款。上一次國有銀行貸款達到這個數量是2008年。這告訴你什麼？同時把擁有美元債務的中國公司將遭受重大打擊考慮進去。（更多請見：《中國擁有美國國債，但是多少呢？》）

如何利用

很可能這個中國政府引導的狡猾的移動將會導致股市一個短暫的反彈，這將導致錯誤的認為中國經濟在全球央行都在拼命和通貨緊縮搏鬥時能夠維持V型複蘇。

從長遠看來，毫無疑問股票將會再次複蘇。同樣，中國政府也將再次提振市場。這將導致間歇的交易經驗。最終，中國政府將會耗盡彈藥而自然力量將會接手，使中國股市遠低於現在水平。（更多請見：《為什麼中國貨幣現在圍著美元上下擺動？》）

諷刺的是，中國人盡管以有耐心著稱，盡管由於人口趨勢中國在未來經濟的反彈可能很高，（二線和三線城市正在現代化加上龐大的消費群體），中國政府卻想維持其現在的經濟泡沫時間越長越好。從投資的觀點看來，存在一個更好的選擇。（更多請見：《三個在中國投資的頂尖ETF》）

交易貨幣可能不能導致與賣空中國股票一樣的上升潛力，但是會少很多麻煩。考慮到貨幣是高風險和不可預知的，這聽起來可能很奇怪，但是現在世界上幾乎所有的東西都有利美元。(更多請見：《中國的經濟指標，對市場的影響》）

在這個事件之前，如果事件沒有發生我們還有歐洲央行和日本央行的印刷貨幣，這正好與美國發生的去債務化一致，將導致一個強勢的美元。現在中國政府對其貨幣的貶值使美元更加強勁。

這不是一個建議。如果你想投資美元，那麼在這之前請做好自己的調查。我的觀點是美元在不久的將來會升的更高。我同時相信中國政府只能支撐股票有限的時間。問題是時間很難判斷，這使投資風險很高。

總結

中國政府正在盡其所能的争取時間。在上證指數第一次暴跌之前，中國政府愚弄所有人去滿倉，但是投資者發現那不過是一個毫無用處的虛張聲勢。

What China Devaluing its Currency Means to Investors

ByDan Moskowitz| August 12, 2015

All was well in China until stocks began to plunge, and they would have continued to plunge if it hadn’t been for government intervention, which included the temporary banning of short-selling with the potential for arrests, a hiatus forIPOs, throwing good money after bad to prop up equities, encouraging investors to buy equities despite excessive debts and slowing growth, and pressuring state-owned banks to lend to failing businesses.

While all of this was taking place, China also had high hopes forspecial drawing rightsand becoming a reserve currency, but theIMFhas stated that no change is likely prior to September 2016.

The two above situations led to the Chinese government devaluing its currency by almost 2% against the U.S. Dollar. This might not sound like a big move, but the biggest daily move prior to Aug. 11, 2015 was 0.16%. Since 2005, theRenminbihas appreciated 25% against the U.S. Dollar, which gave the Chinese government room to move. But will it matter? (For related reading, see:How Does China Manage Its Money Supply?)

Red Dominoes

China is the second-largest economy in the world, and many people felt that it would surpass the United States as the largest economy in the world at some point this century. If you were to look at long-term trends, excessive leverage, and overbuilding to show GDP growth, you could have concluded that this wouldn’t take place. (For more, see:Is Now the Time for Chinese Stocks?)

The United States is in a shaky economic situation right now, but the United States also has a way of finding its way back to prosperity. When you combine American ingenuity with its vast natural resources, the United States is still the favorite to be the largest economy in the world throughout the 21st Century. However, there will be some very difficult times ahead due todeflationaryforces.

While China might not reach deflationary levels, it’s not an impossible scenario. Currently, estimates are for China to grow at 7% in 2015, but this seems highly unlikely. The only way China grows at 7% is if the Chinese government finds a way to skew the number. The only reason China grew at 7% in the first half is because of financial services performing exceptionally well as equities soared higher. Equities are no longer soaring. (For more, see:Should Investors Be Bearish on China?)

Look at July as a small sampling for the Chinese economy. Exports declines 8.3% and auto sales slid 7%. One of the reasons the Chinese government devalued its currency was to make its goods for affordable for international buyers. (For related reading, see:How to Invest in China's Auto Industry.)

Also in July, state-run banks loaned a total of $240 billion. The last time state-run banks loaned that amount was 2008. What does that tell you? Also consider that all those Chinese companies that own debt in U.S. Dollars are going to get slammed. (For more, see:China Owns U.S. Debt, But How Much?)

How to Play It

It’s possible that this crafty move by the Chinese government leads to a temporary bounce in Chinese equities, which will then lead to the false belief that the Chinese economy is capable of a sustainablev-shaped recoveryin a global economy where central banks are desperately fighting against deflation.

Over the long haul, there is little doubt that Chinese equities will head south once again. And again, the Chinese government will probably move in to prop up the market. This can lead to a fitful trading experience. Eventually, the Chinese government will run out of ammunition and natural forces will take over, bringing Chinese equities much lower than where they currently stand. (For more, see:Why China's Currency Tangos With the USD.)

Ironically, the Chinese are known for patience, but despite the high likelihood of the Chinese economy bouncing back in the future thanks to demographic trends (Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities being modernized + massive consumer population), the Chinese government wants to extend the current economic bubble as long as possible. From an investment perspective, a much better option exists. (For more, see:Top 3 ETFs for Investing in China.)

Trading currenciesmight not lead to the same kind of upside potential you would see with shorting Chinese stocks, but it will lead to a lot fewer headaches. That may sound strange considering currencies are seen as high risk and unpredictable, but almost everything in the world is working in favor of the U.S. Dollar right now. (For more, see:China's Economic Indicators, Impact on Markets.)

Prior to this event, we had theECBandBOJprinting money as if there was no tomorrow, which coincided with the anticipated event ofdeleveragingin the United States-this would lead to a strengthening Dollar. Now we have the Chinese government devaluing its currency, which strengthens the U.S. Dollar even more.

This is not a recommendation. If you want to invest in the U.S. Dollar, then please do your own research prior to doing so. My opinion is that the U.S. Dollar will move higher in the near future. I also believe that Chinese equities can only be propped up the government for a limited amount of time. The problem here is that the timing is difficult, which makes for a high-risk trade.

The Bottom Line

The Chinese government is doing everything in its power to buy time. Prior to the first wave of the crash in the Shanghai Composite Index, the Chinese government fooled everyone into believing it held a full house, but investors are beginning to see that it was nothing but a stone-cold bluff. (For more, see:How Undervalued is the Yuan?)

本文翻譯出自兄弟財經

 
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081215/what-china-devaluing-its-currency-means-investors.asp