作為世界上第二大經濟體，中國對美國統治地位的挑戰包括把人民幣推向類似美元的世界儲備貨幣。中國貨幣能否達到足夠的國際威望仍是個問題，美元自上世紀中葉取代英聯邦英鎊後就已成為世界上事實儲備貨幣。

中國人民幣可能會被國際貨幣基金組織授予特別提款權，獲得這一權限的貨幣包括美元、歐元、英鎊和日元。即使人民幣獲得這一權限，它要和作為世界儲備貨幣的美元競争還有很長的一段路要走。

近期事件，包括人民幣突然的貶值2%和中國政府對其股票市場的幹預，兩者都是人民幣在近期不能挑戰美元統治地位的信號。

特別提款權的標準包括

納入特別提款權籃子的兩個主要標準是籃子貨幣在五年間擁有最大的出口價值和貨幣能自由使用。第一個要求保證只有在全球經濟中占主導地位的貨幣才會被納入，第二個要求保證只有在國際付款中廣泛交易和使用的貨幣才會被納入。

盡管中國在國際貿易中重要地位符合第一個標準。但是人民幣是否符合第二個標準還不能明確。有人認為中國的匯率幹預違反第二個標準。但是國際貨幣基金組織的策略、政策和審查部門的代表已經公佈國際貨幣基金組織的自由使用概念是：“有別於是否自由浮動或者完全可兌換”。由於這個原因，中國對人民幣價值的管理並不能把人民幣排除在特別提款權儲備貨幣之外。（更多請見：《儲備貨幣簡介》）

中國的近期幹預

由於比預期低的經濟增長，中國人民銀行近期連續兩天把人民幣相對美元的價值降低大約2%。有些人認為這是中國中央銀行為了刺激出口進行的匯率操控。無論如何，此舉可能幫助人民幣獲得特別提款權的一籃子貨幣的資格。人民幣已經松散的與美元匯率固定多年，最近的貶值實際上更符合市場估值。實際上，貶值受到國際貨幣基金組織的歡迎，表明了中國成為儲備貨幣的目標不會受到影響。

盡管如此，另一些人擔心中國政府的近期幹預阻止大約4萬億美元市場的崩盤。國際貨幣基金組織總裁克裡斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，幹預沒有使人民幣失去特別提款權的資格，但是她也說國際貨幣組織在做出最後決定之前仍然有許多工作要做。在股票市場幹預之後，決定可能被推遲9個月，直到2016年9月。拉加德也聲明說真正的問題是人民幣什麼時間被納入，而不是是否納入。

特別提款權和國際儲備貨幣地位

中國被納入特別提款權籃子將會帶來以系列的好處，穩定貨幣和緩解政策制定者壓力以抑制銀行持有大量外匯儲備的國内需求。

對中國來說，人民幣的儲備地位具有巨大的象徵意義，但被納入特別提款權貨幣籃子不會讓它接近作為儲備貨幣的美元。特別提款權的非美元貨幣現在只占世界各國央行外匯儲備的2%。

使人民幣成為美元真正的競争者，中國需要做出許多重大的改變。美元已經在一定程度上通過其廣泛的、開放的和可信的市場獲得了主導地位。中國仍需證明它能提供一個相似的穩定透明的金融市場。而且其最近的市場幹預表明這個國家要發張支持人民幣成為儲備貨幣的市場還需要很長的路要走。（更多信息《什麼是國際貨幣基金組織的特別提款權》）

總結
中國很可能在明年獲得國際貨幣基金組織對成為一個國際儲備貨幣的批準，加入美元、歐元、英鎊和日元的行列。但是這不能賦予它和其他貨幣一樣的地位，尤其是美元。法定貨幣的國際吸引力取決於感知強度和發行國家和金融市場的信譽。中國近期股票市場的的幹預損害了這個信譽，拖延了與美元成為全球傑出儲備貨幣競争對手的時間。

Chinese Yuan an Unlikely Reserve Currency

ByMatthew Johnston| August 14, 2015

As the world's second largesteconomy, China's challenge to America’s dominance includes a push to set the yuan, officially called the renminbi (RMB), on a similar footing to the U.S. dollar (USD) as the world’sreserve currency. Whether the Chinese currency will ever reach the international prestige that the greenback now holds is a matter of speculation. The dollar has been the world's de facto reserve currency sincedisplacingtheBritish poundsterling around the middle of the last century.

China's yuan is likely to be granted inclusion by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into its special drawing rights (SDR) basket ofreserve currenciesthat include theU.S. dollar,euro,poundandyen. But even if and when the yuan is included, it will still have a very long way to go to rival the dollar’s preeminence as the international reserve currency of choice.

Recent events, including a sudden 2%devaluationof the yuan and the Chinese government's intervention in its plummetingstock marketboth signal that the yuan will not be challenging the dollar’s dominance any time soon.

Criteria for SDR Inclusion

The two primarycriteriafor inclusion in theSDR basketare that issuing countries of basket currencies possess the greatest value ofexportsover a five-year period and that their currencies are freely usable. The first ensures that only the currencies of countries that play a dominant role in the global economy qualify for inclusion, while the second requirement ensures that only currencies widely traded and used for international payments will be included.

While China’s significant place in international trade meets the first criteria. But whether or not the yuan meets the second criterion is less clear. Some argue that China’sexchange-rateinterventions violate this second criteria. But the Deputy of the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department has publicly stated that that the IMF's free-usability concept is “distinct from whether a currency is either freely floating or fully convertible.” For this reason, China’s management of the value of the yuan doesn’t exclude it from the IMF’s SDR reserve currency considerations. (For more, see:A Primer On Reserve Currencies.)

China’s Recent Interventions

Due to weaker-than-expected economic growth, The People's Bank of China recentlydevaluedthe yuan by almost 2% relative to the U.S. dollar for two consecutive days. Some argued the move was an act of currency manipulation by the Chinese central bank to boost exports. Regardless, the move may actually help the yuan gain acceptance into the SDR currency basket. The currency has been loosely pegged to the dollar for a number of years, and the latest devaluation is actually more consistent with a market-determined valuation. In fact, the devaluation waswelcomedby the IMF, which made it clear that it would have no direct impact on China’s goal of earning reserve currency status.

Nonetheless, other concerns center on the Chinese government's recentinterventionto halt a nearly $4 trillion stock market rout. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde indicated that the intervention did not disqualify the yuan from inclusion, but she did say that the IMF still needs to do significant amount of work before arriving at a final decision. After the stock-market intervention, that decision may be postponed another nine months, until September 2016. Lagarde has also publicly stated that the real question is when the Chinese currency will be included, rather than whether it will.

SDR Inclusion and International Reserve Status

China’s inclusion into the SDR basket will bring a number ofbenefits, stabilizing the currency and relieving pressure on policymakers to suppress domestic demand that its banks keep a sufficient level of foreign currency reserves on hand.

For China, the yuan's reserve status holds a high symbolic value, but being included in the SDR basket does not bring it that much closer supplanting the dollar as the the de facto international reserve currency. Non-dollar currencies in the SDR currently comprise only 2% of the total reserves of central banks around the world.

To make the yuan a real competitor with the U.S. dollar, China will need to make a number of significant changes. America has partly gained its dominance through its extensive, open and credible financial markets. China still needs to prove that it is capable of providing a stable and transparent environment for similar financial markets to flourish. And its recent market interventions reveal that the country still has a long way to go to develop the kind of financial markets that will support the yuan as a reserve currency. (Look deeper:What Are IMF Special Drawing Rights?)

The Bottom Line

China will likely earn the IMF’s official stamp of approval as an international reserve currency in the next year, joining the U.S. dollar, euro, pound and yen. But that will not necessarily give it equivalent status with those other currencies, especially the dollar. International desirability of afiat currencydepends on the perceived strength and credibility of the issuing nation’s government and financial markets. China’s recent stock market intervention hurt that credibility, delaying the ascension of the yuan as a true competitor with the U.S. dollar as the world’s preeminent reserve currency.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/081415/chinese-yuan-unlikely-reserve-currency.asp