成功的關鍵：及時止損

                                                                             Rob Booker   2015年11月12日星期四

外匯市場是一個可怕的對手，其日間交易量可達5萬億美元，這是世界上流動性最大的市場。

資金不足、槓桿過大的交易員試圖戰勝全球央行、投資銀行、對沖基金、做市商及其他交易員就像聖經中的大衛挑戰巨人歌利亞，他們的相似之處在於挑戰難以戰勝的對手。

克敵制勝的幾率小之又小，卻有許多人前赴後繼，試圖戰勝這頭怪獸。大多數交易員都有過這樣的經歷，不斷投入資金將市場推向頂峰，卻因為自己的貪婪落得血本無歸。市場不斷摧殘著我們的心靈，並把我們打回原地，這既是感情上、經濟上的傷害，也是難得的禮物。有的人就此放棄，有的人屢敗屢戰。

投資者和交易員們對此是又愛又恨，又不理解。“趕快平倉止損，讓收益飛起來”這樣的俗語聽了不知凡幾，也許這是交易界最常聽到的話，也許你對這陳詞濫調不以為然，卻有無數的人經歷了無比惨痛的打擊之後才能理解這句話的真意。

交易需要極大的毅力和耐心來克服統計學上的逆境和個人財務狀況的障礙。也許某個交易產品能讓你一夜暴富，但它也會暴露你的策略上的不足和性格上的缺陷。但仍有無數的交易員前赴後繼地殺入外匯的戰場。所以，在交易中果斷的平倉止損和止盈都是容易的事嗎？問問那些賺到錢的交易員，他們的答案會讓你大吃一驚。

俗語的前一半是正確的——趕快止損。而後半句——讓收益飛起來，真是說著容易做起來難，因為這取決於交易員的利潤管理能力。在我看來，後半句是極難做出準確決策的。交易界的各種學說爭論不休，交易員中有的賺到了錢，有的卻血本無歸。

能夠準確定位的交易員都擁有管理收益的能力，而在大風大浪中浮浮沉沉的交易員，既沒賺到大錢，也沒收到追加保證金的通知。所以，在交易不順時，迅速平倉止損絕對是保住小命的法寶。而在收益飛漲時要遵循的標準則因人而異，這需要交易員來判斷何時平倉。

外匯市場是一個純粹的技術市場，世界各地的交易都在不停地進行。市場的結構帶來了一個難題，這個難題與支援、阻力、趨勢、區間、通道、模型、高位和低位有關，而他們之間都是彼此關聯的。

在外匯市場中，如果有人為為什麼，那麼一定會有一條新聞、一個公告或是一個技術原因，能夠解釋出價格變動的原因，但這都是馬後炮，因為在交易進行中，市場是波動頻繁、毫無頭緒的。不是說所有的交易員都無法成功，而是告訴大家，風險管理和交易規模的重要性，它們可以降低外界的干擾，從而利用未來的走勢。

The Key to Trading Success: Limiting the Downside

Robbooker.co

The forex market can be a formidable opponent. Daily transactions churn out approximately $5 trillion and the forex market is regarded as the most liquid market in the world.

It appears to be a David vs. Goliath scene with under-capitalized and over-leveraged retail traders attempting to compete with the likes of global central banks, investment banks, hedge funds, market makers, and everyone in between, all of which seem to have a sizable competitive advantage.

The statistics and odds to overcome losses and become a profitable trader are remarkably slim yet so many strive for the ability to tame this beast. Most traders experience Sisyphean-like activity where we endlessly push our equity boulder up the market summit armed with bouts of absolute determination only to watch our mental mistakes, greed, and market conditional outliers sabotage our psyche and send us back to square one with emotional and financial scars as a parting gift. Some give up, some live to fight another day.

Investors and traders love it, hate it, don’t understand it, or fall somewhere in between. How many times have we heard the saying cut your losses quickly and let your profits run? In fact, this may be the most widely used and abused cliche in the trading world, yet it rings true for so many painful experiences in this kill or be killed financial market.

Trading requires a considerable amount of perseverance and grit to overcome the statistical adversity and the obstacles to improve one’s life and financial well-being. This, of course, with a financial instrument that handsomely rewards winners yet ruthlessly exposes strategy and psychological flaws and weaknesses. However, somehow, traders keep coming in and trying their hand in the forex battleground. So is trading really as easy as cut your losses off quickly and let your profits run? Ask any profitable trader and the answer may surprise you.

A portion of the proverb may hold true – cut your losses off quickly. The other half, let your profits run may be easier said than done as it is dependent on the trader’s ability to manage profitable moves. In my opinion, the right side of the chart may be the hardest section to predict with absolute precision. The fundamental and technical pundits battle for supremacy on what school of thought will win the trade as actual traders are in the trenches grasping at profits or getting slaughtered as the next wave unfolds – the market doesn’t care.

Traders who are positioned accordingly have the ability to manage profits, while traders who are fighting the flow are either pressing their eject buttons or experiencing margin calls. So yes, cutting your losses quickly is undoubtedly a way to survive when trades go wrong. However, letting your profits run requires a disciplined and somewhat indifference to P/L fluctuation and that is certainly an adjustment for the traders who are identifying opportunities to manage winning trades.

The forex market is a rather technically pure market with global transactions occurring around the clock. The market’s structure generates an intricate puzzle of support, resistance, trends, ranges, channels, patterns, highs and lows, and they are all interconnected and explanatory in real-time and certainly in hindsight.

If a trader ever asks WHY in the forex market, there is most likely a headline, news announcement, or technical reason for the movement – making it great for after the fact explanations, but sometimes live trading perplexes and fakes out traders with wicks and nasty unanticipated volatility. This does not mean it is unfair or impossible to the trader, it simply means managing risk and trade size is incredibly important to reduce the noise and capitalize on the actual movement or direction the market is after.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.financemagnates.com/executives/insights/the-key-to-trading-success-limiting-the-downside/