使股票風險增加的四個因素

Donna Fuscaldo

投資股票可以獲得很高的回報，但是同時也面臨著巨大的風險。在股票選擇時的錯誤決定將導致最終的虧損。幸運的是，交易者有能辨別出與他們風險承受力不符的股票的方式。通過觀察股票的受歡迎程度來判斷其波動性，我們有4中方法能發現高風險股票。

一支正在受到大量關註的股票

成長型股票的誘惑是具有潛在的豐厚匯報。在低價購入下一個蘋果公司的股票能使你成為千萬富翁。但是不是只有你一個人抱有這種想法，這也是為什麼很多成長型股票的價值很快被高估的原因。

這些股票不僅僅會出現自我修正，而且其下跌可能非常劇烈。你選擇的股票價值被嚴重高估的一個信號是受到太多的關註，這些關註可能來自媒體、互聯網和雞尾酒會。如果一個公司在所有的鄉村俱樂部被讨論，或者媒體正在爭相採訪，那麼這就是該公司股票可能已經進入價值高估區域和將會崩潰的信號。

在進行個股投資時，風險來自很多方面。例如，購買價格就可能是一個風險信號。有學說認為如果你在購買股票時的價格越高，那麼你投資獲利的機會就會越小。如果購買股票的價格便宜或者低於股票的真實價值，那麼面對的風險將會減少。一些風險來自波動。股票的上下波動越大，其風險越大。如果你在低價格時購買股票，那麼對波動的擔憂將會減小。

你變得情緒依賴

投資不是門精確的自然科學，它受到情緒的影響。大量資金的利害關係很容易受到情緒影響，這可能使你出現巨大虧損。即使你購買了世界上最好的股票，也需要出售才會獲利。在獲利時或者股票不起作用時你需要出售該股票，但是由於情緒依賴你到最後你還是想繼續持有該股票。畢竟一只股票不可能永遠上漲，你不想出售這只股票的原因可能是產生了過分依賴。如果你堅持希望一只股票會出現你預期的結果，那麼也可能出現風險。

收入和營業額下降

投資者一般不會投資那些不能盈利或者沒有良好收入的公司，除非他們在進行轉機題材投資。但是如果一個公司宣佈盈利和收入開始下降，那麼就應該警惕對該公司股票投資風險的出現。畢竟，盈利預期的巨大反差是導致股票價格下跌的最有力因素。

即使該公司收入平穩，還會有其他迹象能表明公司將面臨風險。以營業額為例。如果高管跳槽，或者更嚴重的CEO或者CFO突然辞職，那麼應該可以考慮抛出持有的該公司股票了。

總結

股票選擇對專業人員來說也十分困難，這也是投資者在投資中需時刻註意風險增大的原因。如果一只股票價格正在下跌而且價格昂貴波動大，那麼投資者進行投資時將會面臨更大的風險。如果公司的收入正在呈現下降趨勢或者正面臨人才流失，那麼也會出現同樣的情況。

4 Things That Make a Stock a Risky Bet

By Donna Fuscaldo

Investing in the stock market can be rewarding but that doesn’t mean it isn’t fraught with risk. Choose the wrong stock or stocks to put your money into and it can end up being a losing proposition. Thankfully, investors have ways to spot a stock that doesn’t match their risk tolerance. From looking at the popularity of the stock to checking out its volatility, here’s four ways to identify a risky stock. 

The Stock is Getting a Lot of Attention

One of the allures of growth stocks is that there’s the potential for a handsome reward. Get in on the next Apple Inc. (AAPL) at the bottom and you can end up a multi-millionaire. But you are not alone in dreaming of that outcome, which is why many growth stocks can quickly become overvalued. And owning an overvalued stock can be quite risky because there’s nowhere to go but down.

Not only is it likely the stock will correct itself but the fall may be pretty hard. One telltale sign that your stock is getting too overvalued is the attention it’s getting in the press, on the Internet and at cocktail parties. If XYZ Company is all anyone at the country club can talk about, or the media is falling over each other to get interviews with the company, then it is a sign the stock may move into overvalued territory and potentially implode if it doesn’t perform to perfection.

The Stock Price is Expensive or Volatile

When it comes to investing in individual stocks, risks comes in many directions. For example, the purchase price can be a sign of risk. There’s a school of thought that says if shares are expensive when you make your purchase then there is a greater chance you won’t make a return on the investment. If you get in on the stock at a cheap price or below the true value of the stock than the less risk you face. Same goes with volatility. The more ups and downs the stock experiences, the riskier it is. And it doesn’t matter if you purchased the stock at a low price when it comes to risk from volatility.

You’ve Become Emotionally Attached

Investing isn’t an exact science nor is it emotionless. With so much money at stake it is easy to let emotion rule, which can end up costing you big time. Even if you purchased the best stock in the world there always comes a point where it is time to move on and sell. Perhaps it’s time to take some profit or maybe it’s because the investment never worked out, but the last thing you want to do is hold on to a stock because of some attachment. After all shares can’t go up forever and you don’t want to miss out on a healthy return just because you are too attached to the stock. A stock can also be risky if you keep holding on in the hopes that things will eventually work out.

Earnings Decline, Turnover Among the Ranks

Investors aren’t drawn to deadweight companies that can’t churn out a profit or don’t have strong earnings growth unless they are investing in turnaround stories. But if your rock star of a company starts reporting a decline in earnings and revenue growth it should raise red flags about the riskiness of the investment. After all, nothing is going to send a stock plummeting more than a big earnings miss.

Even if the company’s earnings are sound, there are other signs to look out for that things may be amiss within the organization. Take turnover for an example. If senior managers are heading for greener pastures; or worse, the chief executive or chief financial officer step down unexpectedly it may be time to think about getting out of the stock. 

The Bottom Line

Stock picking can be hard to do even for the professionals, which is why investors have to be on the lookout for any increased risk out of their investments. If the stock is the talk of the town or is pricey and volatile, then investors may face more risk. The same applies if earnings are on a downward trend or the company is facing an employee exodus.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020216/4-things-make-stock-risky-bet.asp