外匯走勢可以預測嗎？

伊恩·科普賽

我經常聽到交易者說價格走勢是可以預測的。

我認為絕對是可以預測的，而且也實踐中證明了技術分析有極大的準確性。

經濟學家們當然對此不屑一顧，他們不相信會有比經濟理論更好的方法。

那麼交易新手和老手應該用何種方式預測價格走勢呢？說實話，每個人的方法都是不一樣的。他們最需要做的是評估自己的技能。他們是天生的分析師還是交易員？每種人在分析中都有不同的思考模式。

一個純粹的交易員是反應式的，他們想要快速決策、快速交易。

一個純粹的分析師是思考式的，會考量影響市場的多方因素，深思熟慮之後才會做出決定。

大部分市場參與者是混合式的。他們有時迅速反應、做出決定，有時又猶豫再三，仔細計算入場點和出場點。

那麼一個交易新手該如何選擇分析方式呢？

我是一個純粹的分析者。我的分析不摻雜任何基本因素。我是一個100%的技術分析者，技術分析對我來說非常管用。我曾在市場環境良好的時候，對未來6-10個月的走勢進行了預測。這是極難的技術分析。要知道，技術分析較之基本分析的優勝之處在於可以提供精確的目標點，包括回落和預期。技術分析也能提供很好的時間點。

這樣說來，我是在推薦所有的交易新手專攻技術分析嗎？

當然不是。

想要進行高準確率的技術信息預測，就需要對價格走勢有著極其深入的了解，為什麼價格會這樣走，如果價格與預期走勢不符，它又會怎樣波動呢？我的方法是以艾略特波浪為基礎的，但是在我發現艾略特的理論不適用於外匯市場之後，就對艾略特波浪加入了個人的理解。經過幾年的實踐應用，終於找到了合適的方法。我沒有將預測方法直接投入使用，而是加入了時間週期。如果你不知道該怎麼做，那就先放棄糟糕的交易。要多久才能用100%的技術分析方法進行準確的預測呢？至少需要5-10年，這取決於你的個人分析水平。

那就是說，交易新手只能專註於基本分析了嗎？

其實不然。

我在基本分析方面的水平一般，但是我週圍有很多基本分析師，我見證過他們的成功與失敗。他們也需要時間去學習外匯市場中的異常行為，去體會用顯而易見的經濟因素進行預測如何一敗塗地的。他們通常能預測出基本方向，但卻預測不出準確的入場點和出場點。

因此，對於交易新手來講，在進行交易決策之時要同時考慮兩方面因素。基本分析更受歡迎是因為更容易概念化。基本分析看起來比技術分析更有邏輯。交易新手學會一點基本分析的皮毛要比技術分析入門要容易得多。

但更大的問題是，何時入場，在哪裡止損。只有技術分析能夠解決這個問題。因為技術分析的熟練過程需要很長時間，訂閱技術服務會起到一定的幫助作用。因為80%的交易者都不是天生的分析師，所以對大多數交易者來說，長期訂閱分析服務是很有幫助的，通過嘗試不同的服務，選出最適合自己的交易方式。

何時入場、為何入場、何時獲利、何時虧損，在這幾個問題上要態度堅定。如果你的交易策略中不包含這幾點，你就要承受更多不必要的虧損。

成功盈利的關鍵是學習和堅持。衆所週知，交易是個壓力山大的職業，這不是個簡單的消遣，對持有大量信息的機構交易員來說亦是如此。但是當前的環境中，個人交易者也可以獲得足夠的信息，只要做好了功課，盈利也是可觀的。

Is it possible to forecast future Forex movements?

I often hear traders claim that it is impossible to forecast price movement.

I can categorically claim that it is possible, and have considerable success and good accuracy in the process utilizing technical analysis in 100% of my forecasting.

Economists of course laugh at the idea that there can be any other method than applying economic theory.

So how should new, and for that matter experienced traders, formulate their own approach to forecasting future price movements? To be honest it is something personal to each trader. The most important factor they need assess is their own personal skill set. Are they analysts by nature, or are they traders. Each has a completely different mind set and also different abilities in terms of analyzing.

A pure trader is reactive, wants to trade and wants to make quick decisions.

A pure analyst is reflective, ponders decisions but likes to explore different factors that are affecting the market.

Most market participants are a hybrid of the two. Some err on the side of reaction and some err on the side of making sure of their trade, planning the entry and exits.

So how should a new trader decide what he or she should do in terms of analysis?

I am a pure analyst. I include no fundamental factors in my analysis. I am 100% pure technical analysis and I can be no other way since it works well for me. I have been able to forecast approximate targets 6-10 months in the future when the circumstances all work together well. That is how strong technical analysis can be. If an analyst knows what they are doing the advantage that technical analysis has over fundamental analysis is the ability to provide accurate targets, both on retracements and projections. It may also provide good timing.

In that case, do I recommend that all new traders base their trading on technical analysis alone?

Indeed not.

To be able to forecast with technical analysis in this way with a high success ratio requires a deep understanding of price movement, why it does what it does and what happens when it doesn’t move in the way that has been predicted. My method is based around Elliott Wave and a purely personal interpretation of Elliott Wave since I have found the Elliott’s methodology does not really apply to the Forex market, Elliott Wave takes years of practice and use to feel comfortable applying it. I also use time cycles which are also not plain straight forward to apply. If you don’t know what you are doing then you can end up making very bad trades. How long would it take to forecast accurately utilizing 100% technical methodologies? At least 5-10 years depending on the individual’s analytical skills.

So does that imply that new traders should base their trading on fundamental analysis alone?

Indeed not.

I am not a skillful fundamental analyst but I have worked with several and have seen their successes and failures. Certainly they require time to understand the vagaries of the Forex market and how what appear to be understandable and underlying economic factors can apparently fail totally. They can often forecast the underlying direction but what is impossible is to forecast precise levels to enter or exit.

Thus, for the new trader it is important to incorporate both elements into trade decisions. Fundamentals are normally favored because it is easier to conceptualize the concepts. They appear logical while technical analysis does not. It is normally easier for a new trader to become a little more skillful in applying fundamentals in a quicker time than he/she can with technical analysis.

However, the bigger problem for traders is knowing when to enter and where to place stops. The only solution is technical analysis. Since the process of understanding how to use technical analysis will take time it can be useful to subscribe to a technical service. Since probably 80% of traders are not analytical in nature it could be that most traders will find it useful to subscribe to an analytical service permanently and will need to try several services to see which suits their own personal style of trading.

Choosing an analytical service is important. Since there are always several ways a price pattern can develop what a good service must do for you is provide you with guidance to the possible alternatives, the levels that confirm a move and when it breaks down. It is vital to have a firm view of when to enter, why you are entering and when to take profit, or take a loss. Not to have this in your trading strategy will cause you more losses than you need take.

The key to successful and profitable trading is study and that means hard work. It is well know that trading is a stressful profession and that in itself implies that it is not a simple pastime, even for institutional traders who have a wealth of information at hand. However, there is enough information available to private traders these days and for the savvy who do their homework, there are good profits to be made.

Ian Copsey

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.actionforex.com/articles-library/forex-articles/is-it-possible-to-forecast-future-forex-movements%3f-2006092511156/