巴菲特和普通人的不同之處在於，他購買了整個公司而不是僅僅幾只股票！如果他沒有買入整個公司，那麼他會買入足夠的股票從而獲得董事會席位。他對公司的股息政策擁有控制權（至少擁有影響力），如果他願意，他可以支配公司所有的收益；所以，他對自由現金流的看法和你我不一樣。我們不得不對公司的股利政策以及董事的誠信滿意——為了股東的利益，他們不會改變股利政策。
因此，我們對股票的估值需要結合投資期間的預期股息以及投資結束時所獲得的收益。
收益可以僞造
現有的收益模型是基於公司對外宣稱的收益。任何一位在過去幾年中關註金融闆塊的讀者都可以列舉出一系列關於公司誇大收益或資產負債表外交易掩蓋公司負債。即使公司遵循會計準則，它在如何報告收益方面也享有高度的自由性。準則本身就是政治化的產物，而不是那種可以準確反映公司業績以及經濟狀況的純粹性學術行為。同時，財務報表也不能反映公司的現金流，尤其是那些快速發展的公司。為了刺激公司的銷售情況，賬目利潤有可能與額外的固定資產或週轉資金捆綁在一起。管理部門在公佈財務報表方面也不斷的面臨者壓力。如果業績下滑，他們會試圖向股東隐瞞。通常，股東是最後一個知道公司破產消息。
但你不可以僞造股利
股利是以現金的形式支付給股東，它反映了公司產生自由現金流的能力並且不能被僞造或操縱。不論財務報表上顯示的是什麼，如果企業的銀行賬戶上沒有自由現金流，那麼企業就無法分發股利。同時，如果償貸成本限制了公司資源的有效利用，那麼企業就不可能有充足的股利。
股利同時也反映了公司管理層的誠信度：比如公司會以諸如“新的機遇”等一系列空洞的言辭來限制股利分發。記住一句諺語：“雙鳥在林不如一鳥在手”。
不分發股利的公司
如果公司不分發股利，那麼我們所需要的就是估算投資期結束後的股價：
我們需要預先了解下面的一些基本要素：
• 一個永遠不支付股利的公司的價值為零。
• 股票具有價值的唯一原因是對未來的股利預期。
• 只有那些不分發股利的成長股具有價值：股東希望在將來收獲股利。
• 股利的收獲期越長，投資的風險越大。
* 我用“股利”這個術語來大概囊括公司給股東分發的一系列可以轉換為現金的東西：股票的回購、現金的分發或者是企業解體之後的可出售資產。
影響股利的因素
有以下三個變量影響現金流：
• 接下來一年的預期股利；
• 股利的未來預期增長；
• 投資期結束後的預期股價。
影響投資價值的三個變量：
• 諸如政府債券等無風險投資的預期收益率；
• 決定投資淨收益的稅收情況；
• 達到最低投資收益的安全系數。
現金流
下一年的預期股利
最簡單的方法就是使用分析師的預測，其中你可以有多種選擇：你既可以選擇可靠的分析師的預測，也可以採納公衆對收益的預測。如果你有時間和專業知識，你可以自己進行預測。
股利的未來預期增長
這是一個關鍵問題：長期投資的股利增長率如何？該增長率是決定股票價值的唯一因素。不幸的是，由於存在太多的未知，沒有人可以對未來的股利收益做出準確的預期。我們只能夠在綜合考慮各種主要風險的情況下努力做出最符合實際的預期。
股票投資期結束後的預期售價
股票投資結束後的股票售價（終端價值）有下列兩個變量計算得出：
• 股票銷售時的預期股利；
• 股票再銷售之後的預期股利收益。
下一年的預期股利是根據當前股利以及預期增長率計算得出。預期股利應該與當前股利相似——除非當前市場環境很不穩定或者未來增長率會逐漸下降。
無風險收益率
無風險收益率，是指一個正常的市場中政府債券等長期的無風險投資所帶來的收益率。你可以根據過去10年的債券收益推測出預期收益率。同時，你需要考慮通貨膨脹是否會對長期利率帶來影響。通貨膨脹和預期長期利率應該已經體現在當前的證券收益中。需要記住的是，證券和股票類似，對好消息和壞消息都會過度反應。
稅收情況
稅收在以下幾個方面影響你的投資收益：
邊際稅率
整個投資過程中，你都需要考慮邊際稅率。邊際稅率是針對額外收入的稅率（你需要付的最高稅率）最安全的假設是，你的平均邊際稅率與最高稅率相等，但它也有可能為零。
股息收入稅
投資人所需繳納的股息收入稅可以被其投資公司所繳納的稅收抵消。有些國家不承認這一稅收政策。它受到以下兩個因素影響：
• 公司是否會繳納股息收入稅？這取決於公司的海外收益以及公司所在地的收入所得稅水平。
• 在你的投資期間，公司的稅率可能是多少？
如果公司不繳納股息收入稅，那麼它就相當於零。
資本收益稅
一些國家對投資人的全部收益徵稅（低稅率），而另外一些國家只針對資本收入的一部分徵收邊際稅率（澳大利亞徵收50%資本收入稅）。股息計算器並沒有把損失計算在内。某些情況下，虧損可能會抵消未來資本收益。
安全邊際
Benjamin Graham認為你應該首先專註於投資的安全性：至少要保證自己可以收回資金並獲得無風險投資的收益率。股票的收益變化率很大，因此應該有安全邊際的存在：你的年預期收益率可能是20%，但是如果年收益率下降到2%呢？你仍然可能達到自己既定的最低收益率嗎？考慮到風險的存在，企業的風險越大，所需要的安全邊際也就越大。
通常，我將那些成熟的、擁有合理的股利分配政策的公司比作搖錢樹：利用無風險利率計算股利收益（投資期通常為15~20年）。如果預期股利的當前價值超過了市價，那麼就意味著此次投資擁有健康的安全邊際。
Warren Buffett v. Dividends
The difference between Warren Buffett and the man in the street is that he buys the whole company and not just a few shares! If he doesn't buy the whole company he buys sufficient to get a seat on the board. He has control (or at least influence) over the dividend policy of the company, and can distribute the entire earnings of the company if he so chooses; so his view of Free Cash Flow is different to yours and mine. We have to be content with the dividend policy of the company and the integrity of directors - that they will not change the dividend policy unless in the interest of stockholders.
We should therefore base our valuation of a stock on the expected flow of dividends over the investment period plus the expected proceeds from sale of the investment at the end of the period.
You can Fake Earnings
Existing earnings-based models are based on company-declared earnings. Any reader of the financial pages over the last few years should be able to cite a string of reported cases where listed companies over-stated earnings and/or disguised debt levels through off-balance-sheet structures.
Even when adhered to, accounting standards allow a fair degree of latitude in how companies report earnings. The standards themselves are the result of a political process, rather than a purely academic exercise as to what method most accurately reflects performance and financial position. Reported earnings also do not reflect available cash flow, especially with growing companies. Accounting profits may be tied up in additional fixed assets and working capital required to support new sales.
Management are constantly under pressure to deliver results. If they fail, they often attempt to hide this from stockholders. When a company fails, stockholders are often the last to know.
But you can't Fake Dividends
Dividends are paid in hard cash. They reflect a company's ability to generate free cash flow and cannot be disguised or manipulated. Whatever accounting earnings may state, if there is no cash in the bank account, the company cannot pay dividends. Also, if debt servicing cost strain company resources, there is unlikely to be sufficient cash for dividends.
Dividends also reflect the integrity of management. If cash available for distribution is retained by the company, stockholders are entitled to a full explanation; not just empty rhetoric about "new opportunities". Remember the old proverb: "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".
Companies that do not Distribute Dividends
Where a company does not issue dividends - all we need to calculate is the expected exit price at the end of the investment period.
We need to recognize a few basics first:
• An operating company that will never pay dividends* to shareholders is worth zero.
• The only reason that a stock has value is the expectation of future dividends*.
• Growth stocks that do not distribute dividends only have value because shareholders expect them to be able to pay dividends* in the future.
• The longer the time period before shareholders can expect to receive dividends*, the greater the risk.
* I use the term "dividend" loosely to include any distribution that delivers cash to shareholders: Share buy-backs and distributions of cash or saleable assets on the break-up of a company are two other forms of distribution that achieve the same end.
The Dividend Approach
There are three variables that affect the cash flow:
• Expected dividends in the next year;
• Expected future growth in dividends;
• Expected sale value at the end of the investment period.
And three variables that affect the value of the investment:
• The rate of return expected on risk-free investments such as government bonds;
• Our tax position, which determines our net cash return from the investment; and
• The margin of safety required to ensure that we achieve our minimum rate of return.
These variables are incorporated in the Dividend Value Calculator.
Cash Flow
Expected Dividends in the Next Year
The simplest method is to use an analyst's forecast, of which there are many available. Find a reliable analyst or use consensus earnings forecasts.
Only create your own forecast if you have time and the necessary expertise.
Expected Future Growth in Dividends
This is the critical question: At what rate are earnings (and dividends) likely to grow over the (long-term) investment period? The expected rate of growth is the biggest single determinant of a stock's value. Unfortunately no one can predict earnings growth with certainty, there are too many unknowns lying in wait for us.
We have to make our best estimate, considering the major risk factors. See Value Investing for more detail.
Expected Sale Value at the End of the Investment Period
The expected sale value (or terminal value) at the end of the investment period is calculated using two variables:
• the expected dividends at the date of sale; and
• the expected dividend yield on which the stock will be sold.
The expected dividend in the next year is calculated by compounding current dividends by the projected growth rate.
The expected future dividend yield should be similar to the existing yield - unless current market conditions are unusual, or the future growth rate is expected to decline over time. It is normally best to adopt a conservative approach and use a higher future dividend yield.
Risk-free Rate of Return
The risk-free rate is the yield on long-term, risk-free investments such as government bonds, in a normal market.
Take a look at the yield on 10 year bonds over the last decade and decide what the expected rate of return will be in a normal market. Consider whether there is likely to be any future change in the long-term rate of inflation.
Inflation and future interest rate expectations should already be factored into current bond yields, but remember that bond markets tend to over-react to good and bad news, similarly to stocks.
Tax Position
Your tax position affects the net return that you receive on your investments. There are three major influences:
Marginal Tax Rate
You need to estimate your average marginal tax rate over the life of the investment. Your marginal tax rate is the rate of tax you will pay on an extra dollar of income (ie. the top rate of tax that you pay). It is often safest to assume that your average marginal rate is equal to the top tax rate, but it could be as low as zero.
Franking Credits
Franking credits allow taxpayers to offset tax paid by the company against their personal tax liability. Some countries do not recognize franking credits.
Franking credits on dividends will be influenced by two factors:
• Will the company be in a position to distribute fully-franked dividends? This depends on the amount of foreign income and the level of tax paid on local income.
• What is the likely company tax rate over the investment period?
If no franking credits are available, then the rate is equivalent to zero percent.
Capital Gains Tax
Some countries tax investors on capital gains. Capital gains in some countries are fully taxed but at a lower rate, while other countries tax only a portion of capital gains (Australia taxes 50% of capital gains) but at normal marginal rates of tax.
NoteThe Dividend Value Calculator does not recognize credits on capital losses. In some circumstances capital losses may be offset against present or future capital gains.
Margin of Safety
Benjamin Graham believed that you should first focus on the security of your investment: ensure that you get your capital back plus the rate of return paid on equivalent risk-free investments.
The return on stocks is highly variable, so there should be a margin of safety: you may expect the company to grow earnings at a rate of 20 per cent per year but what if the growth rate falls to 2 per cent? Are you still going to achieve your required minimum rate of return?
Consider the risk factors: the larger the business risk, the larger the required margin of safety.
A rule of thumb I use for "cash cows" (mature companies with a reasonable dividend policy):
Discount the expected dividend flow for the investment period (normally 15 or 20 years) using a risk-free rate of return. If the present value of expected dividends exceeds the current market price then we normally have a healthy margin of safety - the proceeds from the eventual sale of the investment.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/warren_buffett.php