威廉.德爾波特.江恩.1878年6月出生於德克薩斯的拉夫金,他的父母是從英屬愛爾蘭移民到美國的。拉夫金位於休斯敦和德克薩肯納中間。那裡是德克薩斯的棉花之鄉,江恩的父母靠内奇思河下遊的一個棉花農場為生。他在以棉花為主導地位的安潔莉娜郡的棉花倉庫中間長大。江恩在一個嚴格的衛理教徒家庭長大。他的媽媽是一個非常虔誠的人,在他很小的時候就讓他去閱讀《聖經》,並且希望他能成為一個牧師。江恩不確定他是否想成為一名牧師,但是的確如他父親希望的那樣,他學習聖經比他在棉花地裡工作要早。他每個週日和父母教堂,在聽牧師佈道的時候他發現他對聖經的理解和牧師不同。在聖經中他發現時間週期,重要數字的重複和那些智者追逐星辰的介紹。同時,由於這些都用非常含蓄的語言描述,所以想要了解真正的含義非常困難。鑒於其強大的記憶力,江恩到21歲時幾乎能背誦整部聖經。
上學期間,江恩非常精通數學並被稱為有天賦的數學家。他對知識強烈的渴望和開放式的態度讓他進行了多領域的學習,這些最終引導他發現了以前一直被忽視的市場。當大多數孩子還只能在三四年級時他就完成了高中學業。少年時代的江恩,喜歡被稱為W.D,這個縮寫一直被他用到生命最後。W.D在其父母寬容的為了他能獲得工作而在未成年工作許可表格簽字之前都是代表他父母的。他的第一份工作是在德克薩肯納和德克薩斯的泰勒之間一趟火車上當賣報員。這份工作需要他機智靈敏,有進取心並且能和各種各樣的人打交道。在其青年時期,他在拉夫金和德克薩肯納的棉花倉庫工作。在棉花倉庫工作期間,他接觸到了棉花交易。
1902年,24歲的江恩在他最熟悉的棉花市場進行了第一筆交易。這筆交易微小的利潤標志著投資市場一個傳奇生涯的開始。在接下來的53年中,江恩在市場中賺取了五千萬美元。據一個在江恩最後九年為其工作的人透露,這些錢中大約有三分之一是他自己的,另外的三分之二是由他監管的客戶賬戶的。人們相信從第一單開始,江恩就開始用他一生交易生涯一直使用的法則和技術。他早期的一些圖表證實了這以觀點。隨著時間的推移,他的方法被不斷完善。
1906年江恩去了俄克拉瑪市。他在一家經濟商公司做一名經紀人,為客戶處理大額賬戶,同時也自己交易。他從其他交易員成功和失敗經驗中學習。他發現90%的沒有經過學習的交易員會以虧損收場。江恩也損失了一大筆資金並承認他那時的交易是基於希望、貪婪和恐懼。在後來他的書和授課中,他提醒所有的交易員警惕這些情緒。在早起,江恩就開始註意股票和期貨交易的週期性長跌。這讓他總結出自然法則是市場運動的基礎。之後他投入十年時間研究自然法則在投機市場的運用。在此期間,他去英國,埃及和印度去學習古老的數學和星相學知識。在大英博物館,他對市場週期進行了廣泛的研究。據說是在埃及的神廟他發現了後來著名的9的方圖的基礎結構。在對已知科學的廣泛研究和調查之後,他發現了波動法則,這使他能準確的確定給定時間内交易股票或商品的確切價格,每只股票和商品都有其自己的波動率。
在27歲的時候,江恩在美國西南部地區已經非常出名了。他對棉花價格分析觀點被人們非常看重,德克薩肯納的一家報紙《德克薩肯納人日報》刊登了江恩對棉花價格的預測。1908年,30歲的江恩搬到紐約並在百老匯18好開了自己的經紀商公司。並開始在市場中檢驗他的理論和技巧。1908年8月,他做出了對股票和期貨的最偉大的一個數學發現。那就是主宰時間因子。在一年内,人們了解到他的成功不僅僅是因為運氣。沒有人和江恩一樣的廣泛研究時間週期。他的圖表顯示他用來工作的時間週期,在那時還沒有任何研究員有類似的研究。
1909年十月,《股票和投資摘要》的編輯和擁有人理查德D.威克夫對江恩進行了了解其交易能力的一個月的採訪。在採訪中,記錄了10月的25個交易日中作為交易員的江恩的交易。在那時,市場在週六也進行交易。江恩一共進行不同股票的286單交易,包括多頭和空頭。其中264單交易獲利22單交易虧損,獲利率為92.3%。在25個交易日中他把資金重複運用了10次並得到了1000%的收益。能獲得這麼驚人的收益是因為江恩每隔20分鐘的在兩個交易之間取一個平均數。在一天中江恩對一支股票進行了16次交易,其中8次交易在波動的頂端或者底部。這在華爾街的歷史上是絕無僅有的。正如那個時代著名的投機者詹姆斯.R.基恩說的“在十次投資中正確六次的人創造財富”。這似乎就是對江恩高準確性選擇底部和頂部投資的總結。1909年在他所運用的方法被發現的時候,江恩年僅31歲。傳記作者認為在其驚人的表現後江恩後悔了接受採訪,在出版的文章中江恩陳述到他不知道採訪發佈後的後果是那麼驚人。當文章在《股票和投資摘要》發佈之後,江恩被詢問怎樣如他之前做到那樣選擇底部和頂點的人包圍了。他唯一的答案就是他運用“震動法則”取得的那些成就。在這個緊要關頭他只有兩個選擇:1、冒著摧毀市場的風險批漏他的發現;2、寫關於機械交易系統、幾何角度的使用,使用的時間和價格圖表書和課程降低他選取底部和頂部的方法的影響,例如八角圖(9方圖)、12圖的掌握(144方圖)、六角圖(立方體)、90方圖、52方圖、360度圓圖、和許多交易技巧。
毫無疑問,如果江恩用他選取底部和頂部的方法繼續交易,他將成為世界上最富有的人,但是那樣做將會引來太多關註。他將會被不可計數的交易員咨詢不可計數的問題,而且他將被迫去回答。然而,在有些時候,他可能會用到他的方法的優勢。江恩對自然法則有一個很深的理解,所以為了避免形成一個尴尬的局面,江恩選擇他發明的機械系統和其他技術去交易。
獲得更多的金錢而擁有更好的生活對他來說不是很重要,他更對古老文明和科學知識感興趣。江恩知道自然法則怎麼控制人類,因此他了解市場,因為市場僅僅是一個人類活動的反映。
上兩段是我個人觀點,你有權贊同或者反對的權利,但是在你下結論之前,請仔細研究江恩 1909年的交易案例。他在25個交易日中進行了286單交易,也就是每天11單。而這樣的交易,你必須在很短的一個交易日内選擇底部和定點。
如果我的觀點是事實,那麼很可悲的是像江恩這樣一個天才不得不許多交易方法和技巧掩蓋了一輩子。在1918年他在紐約的公司的地址是新街81,在20世紀20年代初是百老匯49號。多年中,江恩在紐約的華爾街保留著幾家辦公室,這些地址的門牌號分別為78、80、82、88、91、和99.
在江恩事業巅峰的時候,他雇佣了35個人繪制各種圖表,在他的方向進行分析研究,執行了包括各種出版物發行和項目的職責。他公司的名字叫做“江恩科學服務公司”,在1919年成立了”江恩研究公司”。公司提供以下供求信:每日股票信,三週股票信,每週股票信,日常商品的信,三週期貨信,每週期貨信。提供的電訊服務如下:每日股票價格電訊服務、每日棉花價格電訊服務、糧食價格每日電訊服務、股票和期貨交易市場重要變化電訊服務。
發表的年度預測有:年度股票預測、年度棉花預測,每年糧食預測,每年橡膠預測,每年咖啡、糖和可可預測。所有預測的補充都在月初郵寄。根據要求提供股票和其他期貨的預測。同樣是按照,每日、每週、每月、每個季度和提供股票和其它商品的擺動圖。江恩教受那些想要自己的使用,不會發佈,出售,或教別人掌握的人預測方法的高級課程教,收費2500美元,新機械方法和趨勢指標,收費為5000美元。這些課程和經濟指導的費用在當今經濟下可能達到兩萬五千到五萬美元,或者更多。
早在1923年,江恩提供了一個名為“忙人服務”的服務。這是一項為那些要江恩指導賬戶何時買進和賣出的專業人士和商人設立的。幾年之後他這個服務的名字改為“個人服務”。
這些服務的收費以一個月、三個月、半年或者一年的時間段為基礎,或者依據一個收費小於淨利潤的5%的“部分收益計劃”為基礎。在“部分收益計劃”中要求至少交易100股。客戶通過電報或者信件接受收交易建議。
1923年3月5日、星期一紐約的晚間電訊把江恩描述成“先知”和’數學預言家”。這其中表示江恩的追隨者披露他的預測85%是正確的。他結合週期使用幸運數字和字母成功預測了威爾士和哈丁的選舉。他提前六個月預測了德國皇帝的退位和戰争的結束。他的預測基於數學。他表示如果有數據他能基於週期理論準確判斷事情再次發生的時間。他進一步表示,在本質上是沒有幸運的,因為最高秩序的數學原理是一切的基礎。文章表明江恩每天收到著名的人要求其公開其星相學的要求。據說他還告訴政治家是否能當選並幫助牧師、銀行家和政治家解決問題。
在1922年11月17日,星期日的早間電訊的另一篇文章中,金融編輯亞瑟安吉說“W.D.江恩在1921年11月對1922年1發佈的股票的預測又取得了驚人的突破,我擔保一份1921年的預測複印件能證明這一觀點。現在,在1922年即將結束之際,公正的說多令我更驚歎的是江恩先生的基於純科學和數學計算顯著預測。
江恩和他的妻子莎蒂.H.江恩在他們的婚姻中生了一個兒子和三個女兒。他的兒子約翰H.江恩在20世紀30年代晚期和40年代早起和他父親是合夥人關系,他們的合作在40年代中期結束。本文作家了解到他們主要的分歧在星相學,約翰不相信星相學對股票市場或者人類行為有影響。這可能使江恩非常氣惱,因為他非常了解行星運動對市場和個人行為的影響。在和父親合作之後,約翰在一家名為Sulzbacher, Granger & Co的經濟人公司作為經紀人任職多年。據說約翰在1984年去世。
江恩一直居住在紐約的斯卡斯代爾,在那時,那裡是紐約的公共社區。在1933年5月26日的出現在“紐約當日投資資訊”的一篇文章中,報道了江恩在1933年乘坐第一架瑞聯特飛機離開了紐約,駕駛員是一名名叫Flinor Smith的女飛行員,進行一個大範圍的鄉村飛行以研究棉花、小麥、煙草作物和其他期貨的生長情況。飛機配備了導航儀器、無線電接收設備和超大油箱,飛了750英裡。飛機由萊康明引擎提供動力,以每小時135英裡的速度飛行。江恩是第一個乘坐飛機研究市場情況的華爾街顧問,所以他能更及時的通知客戶市場情況的變動。在飛行過程中,他是美國各大商會的講解員。
1935年,江恩坐飛機去南美研究作物生長情況,收集秘魯、智利、阿根廷和巴西棉花增產的信息。他坐飛機記錄了一萬八千英裡,坐汽車記錄了一千英裡。
1936年江恩購買了一個全金屬制作?Y飛機,名字叫“銀河之星”,並把它運用到了作物調查中。1939年7月他因相同原因購買了一架全新的仙童飛機。
江恩是紐約期貨交易所交易所、新奧爾良棉花交易所、紐約橡膠交易所、倫敦皇家經濟協會、美國經濟學會、共濟會、芝加哥交易所的成員,並且是一位虔誠的衛理教堂的信徒。
江恩在19世紀40年代在佛羅裡達的邁阿密家裡呆了一個冬天,是由於工作原因搬到那裡去的。他在邁阿密的辦公室在26號路上的820 S. W,.在弗羅裡達期間,他以面對面或者信件的方式繼續他的咨詢服務和講授他的期貨和股票課程。在19世紀40年代後期,他有一個推薦列表的書,包括數字命理學的科目,星相學,科學,和雜項。他參與房地產控股,喜歡大的汽車,特別是林肯,每年都買新的。1954年,幾次成功的咖啡和大豆交易後,江恩購買快速巡航船,命名為“咖啡豆”。據報道,江恩終其一生穿著相同類型的西裝,,家裡裝滿了他的世界旅行時收集的物品。他經常去南美,但在同行的眼中,他沒有揮霍金錢。
江恩撰寫了許多非常好的關於股票和期貨市場的書籍。下面列出了他寫的書籍和出版年代:
《江恩股市定律》
《空中隧道》
《江恩選股方略》
《股票趨勢探測器科學股票預測》
《如何在看跌和看漲期權交易中獲利》
《美國,面對現實——展望1950年》
《如何從商品期貨交易中獲利》
《神奇的字句》
《華爾街45年》
江恩是一位高產的作家。他的寫作方式獨特。他的讀者因為他對英語的有限運用把他當作一位不稱職的作家。實際上並非如此。基於對他作品有條理的研究,讀者可以發現江恩教授的方法。他會激發讀者從數字的起源和音節的震動研究所有事物。
據我估計,江恩是個天才,他的高智商和雙重性格使他即固執又和藹。他是一個天才的數學家、圖表解讀者且對數字有一個超強的記憶能力。忽略他的科學,他能靠單獨閱讀圖表在市場中獲勝。江恩最重要的工具之一是他的圖表且沒有人能運用到他的高度。江恩的圖表包含了55年區間,從1900年到1955年。在此期間成千上萬的每日,每週,每月,每季度,每年,和其他各種圖表,都被小心翼翼被制成,每一件藝術品。他相信圖表是一種藝術,如果你明白了一切的圖表顯示,它將幫助預測第二天,下週,或下個月的價格變動。江恩是個工作狂,有時每天工作17個小時,每週6天,他對和他一起工作的人非常高,希望他們能和自己一樣努力。他只會發出一次指令,不覺得應該有必要重複它們。
江恩對那時股票和期貨價格波動有非常深入的了解。他花了9個月在大英博物館夜以繼日地研究從1820年開始的股票期貨和小麥的價格。他還花費了大量時間在紐約的阿斯特圖書館研究股票和期貨市場。他是一個觀察數字、數論、進展、數字進展的研究人員。他的交易系統是基於自然法則和數學。因為地球在其軸上按自己規則自轉引起的時間變動是由數字和數字的進展衡量的,價格的向上或向下運動也是由數字衡量的,這可以理解為什麼江恩對數字有如此濃厚的興趣。對自然法則和它們對人類的影響敏銳的理解對市場有直接影響。市場只是人類活動的一個擴展或者反映。
在江恩所處的時代沒有計算器。他運用計算尺和他發明的各種圖表進行計算,例如9方圖。他對任何交易保持開放頭腦以達到最佳效果。當他預測的時候,他運用許多方法以得到一個趨勢轉換的時間,這些方法都被證明是正確的。在他早期的交易中他賺取了數千美元。但是,由於輕信其他人的誤導,他也損失了數千美元。在1913年和1919年,他所在的經紀人公司的破產使他損失了一小部分財產。其中的一家是默裡·米切爾公司。在那時客戶資金不像現在一樣有外匯管理條例保護。
在那段時間他還卷入了兩起銀行倒閉。除了這些損失和不幸,他總是能依靠數學科學來實現資金回流。這也是為什麼江恩表示市場知識比資金更重要。
現在,人們認為時代不同了,但是江恩在股票和期貨市場遇到了牛市、恐慌、戰争、通貨膨漲、經濟蕭條和銀行倒閉。在1921年,通貨膨脹率達到了100%。罷工猖獗、不能找到工作和生產力水平非常低下。1929到1932年的經濟大蕭條和公民黃金直接沒收兌換紙鈔,給國家和人民留下了深深的傷痕。江恩反對羅斯福的新政和社會主義。因此,從別人的經驗中學習,現在人們應該理解江恩著名的句子:“未來不過是對過去的重複,或者用聖經的話說,已經發生的事,就是應該發生的;已經做了的事,就是應該做的,太陽底下沒有新鮮事物”。江恩說,一般人的記憶太差,只能記住他想記住或者符合他希望或者恐懼的事情。他們太依賴他人且不會自己思考。因此,應該依靠過去市場運動的記錄、圖表或者圖片記錄過去發生的和預測將來可能發生的情況。只要世界存在,恐慌就會發生,但是牛市也會隨之到來,這就像潮汐的漲落一樣確定的事,因為物極必反是人類的本質。當有希望或者樂觀時人們會很極端。當被恐懼占據,人們走向另一個極端的方向。
以下摘自華爾街45年的歷史中,都是真實並且對當今世界有用的建議。“每個人在生活中的收獲完全取決於他的付出,我們播種什麼就收獲什麼。一個花費時間金錢並不斷學習的人絕不會自認為自己知道該知道的所有知識,而是意識到自己仍然可以學習,這樣的人才是能在投機或者投資中取得成功的人。我想告訴你事實,傳授我在過去45年中股票和期貨交易中好的經驗並向你指出那些弱點使你遠離那些災難。投機可以是個獲利的行業。如果你遵守規則並意識到那些意外情況可能發生並早做準備,你就有可能擊敗華爾街並在股票和期貨市場中獲利。”
在關於如何在期貨獲利方面,江恩對知識有以下評論,他認為知識就是力量。所有看到這篇文章的人都應重視並記住他的建議。“在期貨交易中成功和失敗的交易的區別在於一個了解並遵循固定規律的人和一個靠猜測的人的區別。那個猜測的人通常都是失敗的一方。因此,如果你想取得成功並且獲利,你的目標必須是了解更多知識、用一切時間去學習、絕不能以為自己了解了一切。我已經研究股票超過40年,但也不能完全了解它。我希望只要我活著每一年都能學習一些新的東西。對過去市場活動的觀察和敏銳比較將會揭示市場未來的走勢,因為未來也僅僅是對過去的重複。用時間獲取知識就是在銀行存錢。如果你沒有知識管理它們,你可能損失所有你積累或者繼承的的資金。但是在你花一小部分錢學習了知識之後你就能賺取更多的錢。對期貨的學習將會帶來豐厚的回報。
在1947年,江恩把江恩研究公司賣給了一個名叫C. C. Loosli舊金山律師。那名律師對經營失去了興趣之後在1948年1月14日把江恩研究公司賣給了密蘇裡州聖路易的Joseph L. Lederer。1952年以前江恩研究公司的辦公地點一直是華爾街82號。之後搬到了紐約的斯卡斯代爾,又在1956年搬到了密蘇裡州聖路易,在那裡它的業務只是投資顧問。
1950年,江恩和合夥人艾德蘭伯特在佛羅裡達邁阿密建立的蘭伯特江恩出版有限公司。艾
德蘭伯特是一個建築師,在大邁阿密地區設計了州際高速公路系統。蘭伯特江恩出版有限公司出版了江恩所有的書籍和課程。
江恩1955年6月14日在紐約佈魯克林的衛理教醫院去世,享年77歲。去世時他的妻子,三個女兒和兒子陪在身邊。那一天這個世界失去了一位真正的市場傳奇。
在江恩在1955年去世之後,艾德蘭伯特繼續經營包括一家由江恩式圖表升級的圖表服務公司在内的業務。他不像江恩活著那樣積極推行江恩的書籍,因此在接下來的20年江恩的業績不那麼被人推崇。1976年,華盛頓波默羅伊的比爾瓊斯和尼基瓊斯買下了蘭伯特江恩出版有限公司和江恩的版權。這次收購針對他所有的個人研究,包括他在50年交易和研究過程中收集的數以千計的圖表、報紙、書籍和著作。當然也包括江恩曾經用過的辦公設備。最大型的五月花搬運車將這次收購的所有東西搬運到華盛頓的波默羅伊。在1989年9月比爾瓊斯死後,尼基瓊斯繼續經營蘭伯特江恩出版公司,銷售江恩的著作和課程傳播江恩的傳統。在傳記作者看來,江恩永遠是最偉大的市場研究人員。他的交易生涯長達半個多世紀。他把自己的一生投入到了市場交易和研究裡面。他研究了與價格運動中價格和時間變量相關的自然法則的各方面可能。
這項研究是他陷入對尋找市場波動原因和影響的癡迷。江恩發明的交易技巧在現在一樣適用。他的圖書館裡藏有了大量關於諧波、比例、生長、重力、電學、自然和自然現象的書籍和手稿。然而卻沒有任何關於未平倉合約、交易量、股票和期貨的書籍。
那裡唯一關於股票和期貨的書籍和課程就是他自己。他是一個謙遜的人,盡管他對市場的了解比所有的交易員都多,在75歲的時候他說他還沒有了解所有需要知道的知識。從他的人生和工作中學習是非常重要的。希望這篇文章能激勵那麼不了解江恩的人開始去了解他。(寫於Halliker的演講之後)
一些其他細節
江恩是一個20世紀早期的交易員。他從股票和期貨獲利的能力迄今無法被超越。江恩的技術分析方法預測價格和時間的目標都是獨一無二的。直到現在,他的方法也沒有被完全複制出來。
他的成功是傳奇性的。江恩把小賬戶轉變成巨額財富,為其增加幾百倍的淨收益。他有不計其數的成功交易案例,下面是其中一些:
1908年,把一個130美元的小賬戶在30天内增加到12000美元。
1923年,把一個973美元的賬戶在60天内增加到30000美元。
1933年,479單交易422單獲利。準確率達到88%並獲利4000%。
1946年,以4500美元為資本在三個月獲利13000美元,獲利率為400%。
下面的段落取自1909年的“股票”雜志。這段文字由“股票”前所有人和編輯R.D. Wyckoff撰寫,在其中描述了江恩及時預測價格目標的突出能力。
“江恩先生做出的一個最令人震撼的計算是他去年夏天(1909年)預測今年9月小麥的出售價格會達到1.20美元。這就意味這價格必須在九月結束之前達到那個數字。芝加哥時間9月30日(那個月的最後一天)12點的時候,期權的交易價格低於1.08美元,這使得他的預測可能沒法實現。江恩先生說,如果在閉市之前價格還達不到1.20美元,那就證明我整個方法和計算是錯誤的。我不關心現在的價格,它一定會達到那個點。那是一段衆所週知的歷史,九月小麥1.20美元的售價震驚了全國並且在最後一個交易小時裡沒有長,就在那個價格閉市。
江恩的交易方法基於他個人對適應所有存在事物自然秩序的信任。江恩出自一個虔誠的宗教徒家庭。因此,江恩不僅在他的生活中,而且在他的交易方法中運用聖經章節。江恩經常引用的是下面這段出自傳道書1:9 - 10這段話:
“過去什麼樣,將來就什麼樣,過去完成的,將來也會被完成。太陽底下沒有新生事物。即使是我們經常說“看,這個是新生的”,也已經在我們之前就存在了。
江恩認為在股票和期貨市場中也存在宇宙秩序,現在我們也認同這個觀點。價格運動不是以一個胡亂的,而是以一個可以提前決定的方式發生的。價格運動的可預測性是由自然界發現的數學力點引起的,那又是什麼引起這些力點的呢?是的,就是我們身邊的宇宙,世界和星辰。江恩在那個時候就知道這些。
這些力點不僅僅引起價格的運動,還讓他們以一種可以預測的方式運動。對於未來的價格和時間目標,我們可以通過減少這些數學方程關系的數學力點輕松預測。
江恩的數學方程式並不複雜。他們會產生接下來價格的支撐和阻力。
江恩認為時間是交易的最重要元素。時間是期貨價格趨勢長度的決定因素。當時間決定趨勢價格變化,價格可能在短時間内穩定或者在小範圍内波動,但是最後他們會朝相反方向變化。時間是決定價格何時變化的因素。
某些價格反映發生在特定時間内。實際價格反映類型可以用江恩時間規則來預期和預測。
江恩時間週期不僅僅持續幾天或者幾週,而是幾個月甚至幾年。江恩交易年最先被平分成對等的兩個六個月或者26個週。之後被分成8份和十六份。在你認為你了解了這一切之後,你會發現江恩交易年也被分成3份。
江恩交易年之内也有重要的時間段。例如,因為一週有七天,而七乘以七等於四十九,江恩發現49也是個非常重要的數字。重要的頂點和底點可能發生在第49和52天之間,盡管中間有變化,趨勢可能在42到45天中間生成,因為45天是一年的八分之一。
其他的一些時間段對江恩來說也很重要,在這些時候價格變化是可以預測的。他們是:
主要頂點和底點的週年紀念日
主要頂點底點輕微反向變化後的七個月
10到14天是普通市場反向變化的長度。如果超過了這個時間,那麼下一個反向變化將會出現在28到30天之後。
如果你沒有迷糊,那麼你就會了解江恩年不僅僅是一個日歷年,而且是從主要頂點和底點開始的財務年。江恩時間規則考慮很多階段,保羅季節性、聖經解釋和天文事件。
讓我們舉個小例子。這是在江恩圖表上一個天文學相關的例子。江恩的信念之一,源於他的“自然秩序”的概念,是行星運動對地球事件的影響,例如月亮對潮汐的影響。江恩的宇宙視角和傳統的星相學不一樣,在那些行星的影響中,例如價格的單位,在每個市場中都是獨特的。
結論
a)江恩是時代的掌控者,是一個在短時間内無法找到與之比擬的人。不管人們怎麼說,他的秘密還沒有完全被揭開。
b)江恩十分卓越的,用他那個時代的方法創造出幾乎完美的分析系統。在一個大概的了解之後一些人可能認為江恩的系統完全基於技術分析和命理學。通過更進一步觀察我們會發現江恩更多時候把星相學元素當成他系統的重要組成部分。
c)江恩在一次讨論星相學時??傅剿?荒芙衣端??械墓ぷ鳎?蛭?嗣腔共荒芙郵芩??械男畔ⅰT?910年到1930年期間談論把星相學當成財務分析的方法是不明智的。
d)現在人們把星相學當成一種科學並欣賞它。這種認可很可能是因為許多一生致力於在這一領域的人的努力工作。
e)江恩分析系統非常複雜:基礎是星相學,更高層次他運用基本面分析和命理學,外層是技術分析。外層就足夠我們走向成功。更深層次是為那些精神病和有足夠勇氣的人準備的。
通過五年的努力我們也成功發明了複雜的分析系統。我們不敢聲稱達到江恩的高度。我們運用相同的分析方法,使用相同的指標,但是我們擁有信息、數學和技術方面驚人的進步。我們是一個努力工作的團隊並且仍然尋求改進系統地方法。我相信我們已經成功的為許多人提供了滿意的分析。
William Gann – A Legend
William Delbert Gann was born June 6, 1878, in Lufkin, Texas, to Sam H. and Susan R. Gann, immigrants to Texas from the British Isles. Lufkin is midway between Houston and Texarkana. This part of Texas is cotton country and Gann’s parents lived on a Neches River bottom cotton ranch near Lufkin. He grew up around the cotton warehouses in Angelina County where cotton was king. W. D. Gann was raised in a very strict Methodist church family. His mother, a very religious person, encouraged him to read the Bible at a very early age, and in fact, wanted him to become a minister. Gann was not sure he wanted to become a minister, but studying the Bible was certainly easier than working in the cotton fields, as was his father’s wish. He attended church every Sunday with his parents and as he listened to the sermons found his interpretation of the Bible scriptures to differ from the minister’s. In the Bible he discovered time cycles, repetition of important numbers, and references to the wise men following the stars. Also, that it was written in veiled language that made interpreting the real meaning difficult. Since Gann had a photographic memory, by age 21 he had nearly memorized the Bible.
During his school years Gann excelled in mathematics and was generally called as a gifted mathematician. His tremendous appetite for knowledge and his open-minded attitude led him into many different fields of study that eventually resulted in discoveries in the markets that would otherwise have been overlooked. He completed high school in a time when most children were only able to attend school through the third or fourth grade. As a teenager, Gann liked to be called W. D., and he used these initials the rest of his life. W. D. pestered his parents until they relented and signed a minor release form that he needed to obtain a job. His first job was that of a News Butcher on the passenger train between Texarkana and Tyler, Texas. This job required him to be quick-witted, aggressive, and able to deal with all kinds of people. During his teen years, he worked in the cotton warehouses in Lufkin and Texarkana, Texas. While working in the cotton warehouse, he was introduced to commodity trading.
In 1902, at age 24, W. D. Gann made his first commodity trade in cotton, the market he knew best. The small profit from that trade marked the beginning of what was to become one of the most remarkable and legendary careers the speculative markets have ever known. Over the next 53 years, Gann took over $50,000,000 from the markets. It has been reported by a man who worked for Gann the last eight years of Gann’s life, that approximately 1/3 of the money he made was for himself and the other 2/3 was for the accounts he supervised for clients. From that very first trade, it is believed Gann was using principles and techniques he continued using throughout his trading career. The notations on some of his early charts substantiated this belief. As time progressed, his trading methods were refined.
In 1906 W. D. went to Oklahoma City. He worked as a broker for a brokerage firm, trading for himself while handling large accounts for clients. He studied the cause of success and failure in the speculation of other traders. He found that over 90% of traders who enter the markets without knowledge and study usually lose in the end. Gann also lost a significant amount of money and admitted his trading was based on hope, greed, and fear. Later on, in his books and courses, he cautioned all traders about these emotions. Early on, Gann began to note the periodical recurrence of rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led him to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. He then devoted ten years to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets. During that time he traveled to England, Egypt, and India to gain knowledge in ancient mathematics and astrology. In the British Museum in England he conducted extensive research on market cycles. In an Egyptian temple it is believed he found the basic construction of what was to become known as his Square of 9 Chart. After exhaustive research and investigation of the known sciences, he discovered the Law of Vibration enabled him to accurately determine the exact prices to which stocks or commodities would trade within a given time, and that each stock or commodity had its own rate of vibration.
At age 27, Gann was a well-known name in the Southwest. His views on the analysis of cotton prices were so well respected that a Texarkana newspaper, The Daily Texarkanian, ran a story on Gann’s cotton predictions. In 1908, at age 30, Gann moved to New York and opened his own brokerage office at 18 Broadway. He began testing his theories and techniques in the market. On August 8, 1908, he made one of his greatest mathematical discoveries for predicting the trend of stocks and commodities. This was “The Master Time Factor.” Within a year, it became clear to others that his success was based on more than just luck. No one researched time cycles as extensively as Gann. His charts show the cycles with which he worked, went back to history’s beginning, and bore no resemblance to other researcher’s time cycle studies.
In October 1909, Richard D. Wyckoff, Owner and Editor of The Ticker and Investment Digest asked Gann for an interview to document his trading ability for one month. The interview was granted, and Gann’s trades were monitored for 25 market days during the month of October in the presence of a Ticker representative. At that time the markets also traded on Saturday. Gann made 286 trades in various stocks, both long and short. There were 264 trades that resulted in profits and 22 in losses. 92.3% of the trades were profitable. The capital used doubled ten times resulting in 1000% gain on his original investment during those 25 trading days. What makes this even more phenomenal is that Gann did this with an average time between each trade of about twenty minutes. In one day Gann made 16 trades in the same stock, 8 of which were in either the top eighth or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. Such a performance is unparalleled in the history of Wall Street. As stated by James R. Keene, the famous speculator of that era, “The man who is right 6 times out of 10 will make his fortune.” It seems a foregone conclusion that Gann was picking tops and bottoms with a high degree of accuracy. At this point of time, in 1909, he was only 31 years of age, so whatever methods he was using had already been discovered. This biographer believes that after his sensational performance Gann regretted having granted the interview, as it was stated in the printed article that he did not know the results were to be published. When the article was printed in The Ticker Investment Digest, Gann was besieged with people asking how he was able to pick tops and bottoms as he had demonstrated. His only answer to them was he used The Law of Vibration to make all his calculations. At this conjuncture there were only two choices: l) to give away his secret discoveries and risk destroying the markets, or 2) to detract from his method of picking tops and bottoms by writing books and courses about mechanical trading systems, the use of geometrical angles, the use of Time and Price Charts, such as the Octagon Chart (Square of 9), Master 12 Chart (Square of 144), Hexagon Chart (the cube), Square of 90, Square of 52, 360 Degree Circle Chart, and many other trading techniques.
If Gann had continued trading using only his method of picking tops and bottoms, without a doubt he would have become one of the wealthiest men in the world, and in so doing would have attracted too much attention. He would have been asked too many questions by traders and would have been compelled to explain. However, at certain times, he probably used his method to advantage. Gann had a profound understanding of natural law, so rather than place himself in an embarrassing situation, he chose to trade using his mechanical systems and other techniques he had developed. Also, having more capital than was required for a good living was not important to him, as he was more interested in the knowledge possessed by ancient civilizations and the occult sciences. Gann understood how the Laws of Nature controlled human beings and, therefore, he understood the markets, because the markets are nothing more than an expression of the actions of human beings.
The two previous paragraphs are my belief. You may agree or disagree, but before you arrive at a conclusion, carefully study Gann’s 1909 trading demonstration. He made 286 trades in 25 days, which is 11 trades per day. To do this, you must pick the tops and bottoms on a short intraday time period.
If what I believe is true, it is very sad to think that a genius individual such as W. D. Gann, had to disguise the truth throughout his life, with a smoke screen of many trading methods and techniques. In 1918 his office address in New York was 81 New Street and in the early 1920’s was at 49 Broadway. Over the years, Gann maintained several offices in New York all located on Wall Street with the address numbers of 78, 80, 82, 88, 91, 93 and 99.
At the height of Gann’s career, he employed 35 individuals who made charts of all kinds, did analytical research at his direction, and performed many duties involved with his various publications and services. The name of one of his businesses was W. D. Gann Scientific Service, Inc., and the other, initiated in 1919, was W. D Gann Research, Inc. The firms published the following Supply and Demand Letters: Daily Stock Letter, Tri-Weekly Stock Letter, Weekly Stock Letter, Daily Commodity Letter, Tri-Weekly Commodity Letter, and Weekly Commodity Letter. Telegraph Service was all offered as follows: Daily Telegraph Service on Stocks, Daily Telegraph Service on Cotton, Daily Telegraph Service on Grain, and Telegrams on important Changes Only, on Stocks or Commodities. Published under Annual Forecasts were: Annual Stock Forecast, Annual Cotton Forecast, Annual Grain Forecast, Annual Rubber Forecast, Annual Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Forecast. Supplements to all Forecasts were issued and mailed on the first of each month. Special Forecasts on stocks or other commodities were made on request. Also offered were daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and swing charts on stocks and commodities. Gann taught advanced courses of instruction entitled Master Forecasting Method, at a cost of $2,500, and New Mechanical Method and Trend Indicator, at a cost of $5,000, to those who want it for their own use and will not publish, sell, or teach it to others. It is too valuable to be spread broadcasted. The cost of these courses and personal instruction in today’s economics would be $25,000 to $50,000, or more.
As early as 1923, Gann offered a service entitled “The Busy-Man’s Service.” This was a service for professional and businessmen where Gann supervised their trading accounts by advising them what and when to buy and sell. In later years the name of this service was changed to “Personal Service.”
The cost of this service was on a 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or annual basis, or on a Part-of-Profit Plan where the monthly fee was smaller and Gann received 5% of the net profits. Under the Part-of-Profit Plan it was required that a minimum of 100 shares be traded. The clients were advised by telegram or letter.
An article in The Evening Telegram dated New York, Monday, March 5, 1923, used the words “prophet” and “mathematical seer” to describe Gann. It also stated his followers declared he was 85% correct in his forecasts. He predicted the election of Wilson and Harding using fortunate numbers and fortunate letters combined with cycles. He predicted the abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war to the exact date six months in advance. His predictions were based on mathematics. He stated if he had the data he would use algebra and geometry to tell exactly by the theory of cycles when a certain thing is going to ocur again. He further stated that there is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. The article pointed out that Gann received calls every day from prominent persons asking him to cast their horoscope. It also said he told politicians whether or not they would be elected and solved problems for clergymen, bankers, and statesmen.
In another article in the Morning Telegraph, dated Sunday, December 17, 1922, the Financial Editor, Arthur Angy, stated that “W. D. Gann had scored another astounding hit in his 1922 stock forecast issued in December, 1921, I found his 1921 forecast so remarkable that I secured a copy of his 1922 stock forecast to prove his claims for myself. And now, at the closing of the current year of 1922, it is but justice to say I am more than amazed by the result of Mr. Gann’s remarkable predictions based on pure science and mathematical calculations. ”
W. D. and his wife, Sadie H. Gann, had one son and three daughters born to their marriage. Their son, John L. Gann, was in partnership with his father for several years in the late 1930’s and early 1940’s, operating under the firm name of W. D. Gann & Son, Inc. Apparently, the two personalities were not always compatible, as their association was ended in the mid 1940’s. This writer has been told one of their main differences concerned astrology, as John did not believe astrology had any effect on market movements, or human behavior. This probably upset W. D. as he knew well the effect of planetary motion on the markets and the individual. Following the association with his father, John served as a broker for many years for the firm Sulzbacher, Granger & Co. in New York City. It is believed that John passed away in 1984.
For many years Gann maintained a home in Scarsdale, New York, which was, at the time, the estate bedroom community for New York City. In an article that appeared in the May 26, 1933 New York Daily Investment News, it was reported that Gann left New York in the first 1933 model Stinson Reliant airplane, piloted by Flinor Smith, a woman aviator, to conduct an extensive tour of the country analyzing cotton, wheat, and tobacco crops, and business conditions. The airplane was equipped with navigation instruments, radio receiving equipment and extra-large fuel tanks that gave a flying range of 750 miles. It was powered with a Lycoming engine and cruised at 135 miles per hour. Gann was the first Wall Street advisor to se an airplane for studying market conditions so he could advise clients much faster of changing market conditions. During his trip he was a speaker to members of Kiwanis, Rotary, Chamber of Commerce, and other business organizations in various larger cities throughout the United States.
In 1935, Gann made an airplane trip to South America for studying crop conditions, and to gather information on the increase and production of cotton in Peru, Chili, Argentina, and Brazil. He logged 18,000 miles by air and another 1,000 miles by automobile.
In July of 1936 Gann purchased a specially built all metal airplane, which he named “The Silver Star,” and used in making crop surveys. In July of 1939 he purchased a new Fairchild airplane for the same purpose.
Gann was a member of the Commodity Exchange, Inc. of New York, the New Orleans Cotton Exchange, the Rubber Exchange of New York, the Royal Economic Society of London, the American Economic Society, the Masonic Lodge, the Shrine, the Chicago Board of Trade, and was a devout Christian in the Methodist Church.
Gann had a winter home in Miami, Florida, and in the 1940’s moved there on a full-time basis. His office was at 820 S. W. 26th Road in Miami. While in Florida, he continued his advisory services as well as teaching his commodity and stock market courses, either in person or by mail. By the late 1940’s he had a recommended list of Books For Sale that included the subjects of numerology, astrology, scientific, and miscellaneous. He was involved in real estate holdings, and enjoyed large automobiles, especially Lincolns, which he purchased new yearly. In 1954, after making several successful coffee and soybean trades, Gann purchased a fast express cruising boat that he named “The Coffee Bean.” It was reported that Gann wore the same type of suit throughout his life, and that his home was filled with items collected in his world travels. He vacationed often in South America. But, in the opinion of his peers, he did not live beyond his means.
W. D. Gann wrote some of the best books ever written on the stock and commodity markets. The following is a list of the books written by him and the year they were published:
peculation a Profitable Profession
The Truth of the Stock Tape
The Tunnel Thru the Air
Wall Street Stock Selector
Stock Trend Detector Scientific Stock Forecasting
How to Make Profits Trading in Puts and Calls
Face Facts America. Looking Ahead to 1950
How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities
45 Years in Wall Street
The Magic Word
Gann was a prolific writer. His style of writing was unique. Readers of his books considered him to be a poor writer with a limited use of the English language. Not so! Upon methodic study of his work, the reader will discover in time the Gann method of teaching. He will inspire the reader to research everything from the origin of numbers to the musical scale and vibrations.
W. D. Gann, in my estimation, was a genius. He was born a Gemini with a high intellectual capacity, and a dual personality that caused him to be both genial and obstinate. He was a gifted mathematician, an expert chart reader, and had an extraordinary memory for figures. Take away his science and he would beat the market on chart reading alone. One of Gann’s most important technical tools was his charts and no one kept up as many as he did. Gann’s charts encompassed 55 years, from 1900 to 1955. During this time thousands of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and other various charts, were made with great care, each a work of art. He believed charting was an art and if you understood everything the chart was showing, it would aid in forecasting the next day, week, or month’s, price movements. Gann was a workaholic, at times working 17 hours per day, 6 days per week. He was very demanding of those who worked with and for him, and expected the same effort from them that he himself put forth. He expected to issue instructions only once and did not feel it should be necessary to repeat them.
Gann was deeply analytical and studied price actions of various stocks and commodities back through the years. He spent nine months in the British Museum working day and night researching stock and commodity prices and dates from 1820, and wheat prices and dates from 1200. He also spent long hours and long days in the Astor Library in New York City researching stock and commodity markets. He was a student of numbers, number theory, progressions, and the progression of numbers. His trading system was based on natural law and mathematics. Since time progresses as the earth rotates on its axis and in its order, and time is measured by numbers and progression of numbers, and prices in their movement upward and downward are also measured in numbers, it is understandable why Gann had an intense interest in numbers, number theory, and mathematics. A keen understanding of natural laws and their effect on mankind have a direct effect on the markets. The markets are only extensions or reflections of man’s actions.
In Gann’s time there were no calculators. He used a slide rule and the various master charts he developed, such as the Square of 9, for his calculator. He kept an open mind to any trading ideas to achieve perfection. When making his forecasts, he used many methods to arrive at the time for a trend change, and all of them to confirmed he was correct. In his early trading he made thousands of dollars. But, by listening to false rumors and other people’s ideas, he also lost thousands of dollars. In 1913 and again in 1919, he lost small fortunes when the brokerage firms he was trading with went bankrupt. One of these firms was Murray Mitchell and Company. In those days the client’s funds were not protected by exchange regulations in case of a failure, as they are today.
During this time he was also involved in two bank failures. Regardless of these losses and misfortunes, he was always able to rely upon mathematical science to aid him in making a financial comeback. This is why Gann states that knowledge of the market is more important than money.
Today, people believe “times are different,” but Gann’s time saw its bull markets and panics in the stock market, bull markets and panics, in the commodity market, wars, inflationary periods, depressions, bank closings, etc. In 1921 the rate of inflation was 100%. Strikes were rampant, jobs impossible to find, and productivity at very low levels. The Great Depression of 1929 to 1932 and the outright confiscation of the citizen’s gold that was exchanged for printed money, left deep scars on the country and it’s citizens. W. D. Gann was avidly against the New Deal and Roosevelt’s creeping socialism. Therefore, to learn from other people’s past experiences, people today should understand Gann’s famous quotation, “The future is but a repetition of the past, or as the Bible says, the thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done, is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the Sun.” Gann said, “The average man’s memory is too short. He only remembers what he wants to remember or what suits his hopes and fears. He depends too much on others and does not think for himself. Therefore, he should keep a record, graph, or picture of past market movements to remind him what has happened in the past can, and will, happen in the future. Panics will come and bull markets will follow just as long as the world stands and they are just as sure as the ebb and flow of the tides, because it is the nature of man to overdo everything. He goes to the extreme when he gets hopeful and optimistic. When fear takes hold of him, he goes to the extreme in the other direction.”
In How to Make Profits in Commodities -- Gann made the following comments regarding knowledge as he believed knowledge is power. All who read this should heed and always remember his advice. “The difference between success and failure in trading in commodities is the difference between one man knowing and following fixed rules and the other man guessing. The man who guesses usually loses. Therefore, if you want to make a success and make profits, your object must be to know more; study all the time; never think that you know it all. I have been studying stocks and commodities for forty years, and I do not know it all yet. I expect to continue to learn something every year as long as I live. Observations, and keen comparisons of past market movements, will reveal what commodities are going to do in the future, because the future is but a repetition of the past. Time spent in gaining knowledge is money in the bank. You can lose all the money you may accumulate or that you may inherit - that is if you have no knowledge of how to take care of it - but with knowledge you can take a small amount of money and make more after time spent in gaining knowledge. A study of commodities will return rich rewards.”
Sometime in 1947, Gann sold W. D. Gann Research, Inc. to C. C. Loosli, a San Francisco attorney. He became disenchanted with the business and on February 14, 1948, W. D. Gann Research, Inc. was transferred to Mr. Joseph L. Lederer of St. Louis, Missouri. The office for W. D. Gann Research, Inc. was maintained at 82 Wall Street in New York until 1952. Then it was moved to Scarsdale, New York, and in 1956 relocated to St. Louis, Missouri, where its only business was that of investment adviser.
In 1950 in Miami, Florida, Gann and a partner, Ed Lambert, founded Lambert-Gann Publishing Co. Ed Lambert was an architect who designed the Inter-State Highway System in the greater Miami area Lambert Gann Publishing Co. published all Gann’s books and courses.
W. D. Gann passed away in the Methodist Hospital in Brooklyn, New York, on June 14, 1955, at the age of 77. He was survived by his wife, Sadie, three daughters, and a son. That day the world truly lost a market legend.
After Mr. Gann’s death in 1955, Ed Lambert continued to operate the business that included a chart service of updated Gann style charts. He was not as active in promoting Gann’s writings as when Gann was alive, so for the following twenty years Gann’s work became quite obscure. In 1976 Bill and Nikki Jones of Pomeroy, Washington, purchased Lambert-Gann Publishing Co. and the Gann copyrights. In the purchase were all of his personal researches including thousands of his charts, papers, books, and writings he had collected through fifty years of trading and research. There were also tables and miscellaneous office furniture used by Gann. The largest Mayflower moving van available was required to transport this purchase to Pomeroy, Washington. Following Billy Jones’ death in September 1989, Nikki Jones continues to operate Lambert Gann Publishing Co., carrying on the Gann tradition with the sale of his books and courses. In this biographer’s opinion, W. D. Gann was the greatest market researcher of all time. His trading career spanned more than a half century. During that time he devoted his total life to market research and trading. He researched every possible aspect of natural laws in conjunction with variables of price and time in market movements.
The following is taken from 45 Years in Wall Street and is very good advice and very true in today’s world. “Every man takes out of life just exactly according to what he puts in. We reap just what we sow. A man who pays with time and money for knowledge and continues to study and never gets to the point where he thinks he knows all there is to know, but realizes that he can still learn, is the man who will make a success in speculation or in investments. I am trying to tell you the truth and give you the benefit of over 45 years of operating in stocks and commodity markets and point out to you the weak points that will prevent you from meeting with disaster. Speculation can be made a profitable profession. Wall Street can be beaten and there is money operating in commodities and the stock market if you follow the rules and always realize that the unexpected can happen and be prepared for it.”
This study became an obsession to find the cause and effect of market fluctuations, which he did. The trading techniques Gann developed work the same today as they did when he used them. His library contained volumes of books and manuscripts on harmonic waves, proportion, growth, gravity, electricity, nature, and natural phenomena. However, there were no books on open interest, volume, stocks, or commodities.
The only books and courses on commodities and stocks were his own. He was a humble man who stated, at age 75, that he had not learned all there was to know, and yet, he knew more about the markets than any trader who ever lived. There is an important lesson to be learned from the study of his life and his work. For those of you who have diligently studied his writings, you will understand my statements. Hopefully, for those of you who are not familiar with Gann, this writing will inspire you to begin. (presentation after Halliker)
2. Some other details
William D. Gann was a trader of the early 20th century. His abilities for profiting form the stock and commodity markets remain unchallenged. Gann’s methods of technical analysis for projecting both price and time targets are unique. Even today, his methods have yet to be fully duplicated.
His successes are legendary. Gann literally converted small accounts into fortunes, increasing their net balances by several hundred percent. There are numerous examples of his trading successes, among which are these:
1908 – a $130 account increased to $12.000 in 30 days.
1923 – a $973 account increased to $30.000 in 60 days.
1933 – 479 trades were made with 422 being profitable. This is an accuracy of 88% and 4000% profit.
1946 – A 3-month net profit of $13.000 from starting capital of $4500 – a 400% profit.
The following paragraph appeared in the December 1909 issue of “Ticket” Magazine. It was written by R.D. Wyckoff, the former owner and editor of the “Ticket”, and describes Gann’s proficiency for projecting price targets forward in time:
“One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o’clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling bellow $1.08 and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, ‘If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market, it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculations. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there’. It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no high in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure”.
Gann’s trading methods are based on personal beliefs of a natural order existing for everything in the universe. Gann was part of a family with strong religious beliefs. As a result, Gann would often use Biblical passages as a basis for not only his life, but his trading methods. A passage often quoted by Gann was this from Ecclesiastes 1:9 - 10:
“What has been, that will be; what has been done, that will be done. Nothing is new under the sun. Even the thing of which we say, ‘See, this is new!”, has already existed in the ages that preceded us.”
This universal order of nature also existed, Gann determined, and we have the same opinion now, in the stock and commodity markets. Price movements occurred, not in a random manner, but in a manner that cat be pre-determined. The predictable movements of prices result from the influence of mathematical points of forces found in nature… And what is the cause for all this points of forces? Right… cosmos…universe...all planets around us. This Gann could say at that time.
These points of force were felt to cause prices to not only move, but move in a manner that can be anticipated. Future targets for both price and time can we confidently projected by reducing these mathematical points of forces to terms of mathematical equations and relationships.
The mathematical equations of Gann are not complex. They result in lines of support and resistance which prices invariably will follow.
Gann held that time is the most important element of trading. Time is the factor that determines the length of a commodity’s price trend. When time dictates that trending prices should react, prices may stabilize for a short period, or they may fluctuate within a tight range, but eventually they will react by reversing direction. Time is the element that will determine WHEN prices should react.
Certain price reactions are found to occur during specific times. The actual TYPE of price reaction can be anticipated, and pre-determined, by using Gann time rules.
Gann time periods last not only days or weeks, but months and even years. Gann’s trading year is first divided in half, equivalent to 6 months or 26 weeks. The year is then divided by eighths, and then by sixteenths. And then, after you think you understand all of this, you find that Gann’s year is also divided by thirds.
There are also important time periods within the Gann year. For example, since a week is 7 days, and 7 times 7 is 49, Gann’s work found that 49 is a significant number too. Important tops or bottoms may occur between the 49th and 52nd day, although an intermediate change – in – trend may occur between the 42nd and 45th day, because 45 days in 1/8 of a year.
Other time periods that were important to Gann, at which a price reaction could be expected, are:
- Anniversary dates of major tops and bottoms
- 7 months after a major top or bottom for a minor reaction.
- 10 to 14 days is the length for a reaction in a normal market. If this period is exceeded, the next reaction should be expected after 28 to 30 days.
If you’re not already confused, understand that Gann’s year may not only be calendar, but “fiscal” as well; starting from major tops or bottoms. Gann’s time rules consider many periods, including seasonality, Biblical references, and astronomical events.
Let’s see a little example. This is an example of astronomical correlations on a Gann chart. One of Gann’s beliefs, stemming from his “natural order” concept, is the influence of planetary movements on earthly events, such as the moon’s perceived effect in tides. This “cosmic perspective” of Gann is unlike conventional astrology, in that planetary influences, like units of price, are unique to each market.
Conclusions
a. Gann was a master of his time, a personality not easy to match any time soon. No matter what others say, his secrets have not been fully discovered yet.
b. Gann managed, with the methods of his time, and this is quite remarkable, to create an almost perfect system. After a general view some might consider that his system is entirely based on technical analysis and numerology. At a closer look we discover that Gann discretely refers numerous times to elements of astrology as an important part of his system.
c. Gann admitted one time, when talking about astrology, that he can not reveal all aspects of his work because people are not yet prepared for this kind of information. Talking about astrology as a method of financial analysis wouldn’t have been wise in the time of 1910-1930,
d. Nowadays the society acknowledges the value of astrology as a science and appreciates it. This recognition is possible because of the hard work of many people that dedicated their life to researching this domain.
e. Gann had a complex system: the basis was astrology; at a higher level he used fundamental analysis and numerology; the outer layer was technical analysis. What remained to the successors was the outer layer. The depths are for those patient and courageous enough to walk his path.
f. After five years of research we have also managed to develop a complex system of analysis. We don’t claim to have reached Gann’s perfection. We use although the same methods of analysis, we work with the same indicators but we have the advantage of the amazing improvements in informatics, mathematics and technology. We are a team that worked hard and that is still looking for ways of improving the system. We believe we have managed to offer analysis many people are very satisfied with.
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