喬治.索羅斯：一個精英投資人的理念

.索羅斯還是領先了世界經營投資階層幾十年。1981年，《機構投資人》雜志稱他為“世界上最偉大的資金管理人”。

 

索羅斯的理念

喬治.索羅斯是個短期投資人。他在金融市場上進行大規模、高槓桿的投資。他著名的對沖基金，以一個基於匯率、商品價格、股票、證券、衍生產品和其他資產宏的觀經濟分析進行大規模單方向投資的理念而著稱。

 

簡單的說，索羅斯認為這些投資品價格將會上升或者下降。這是基於研究和本能執行的直覺交易。索羅斯研究他的目標，讓各類金融市場和其參與者的運動指引他的交易。他指出他交易策略背後的理念是反射性的。這個理論摒棄傳統的平衡市場環境的概念，即所有信息都是已知的並影響價格。反之，索羅斯認為，市場參與者直接影響市場基本面，且他們的非理性行為影響市場的繁榮或者蕭條並提供投資機會。

 

房價為他的理論提供了一個很有趣的例子。當銀行使貸款更加容易，更多的人就會借錢。當人們手裡有錢之後，他們就會買房，這將導致商品房需求量的增加。需求的增加導致價格的上升，價格的上升鼓勵銀行更多的放貸。借款人手中更多的資金導致商品房需求的上升，這樣一個上升的螺旋循環構成一個在經濟基本面上合理的房價的上升。放貸人和買家對商品價格有直接的影響。

 

一個基於認為房地產市場即將崩盤觀點的投資反映了索羅斯一個典型的投資。當房地產市場從繁榮走向衰退時賣空豪華住宅建築商的股票或者住房貸款機構的股票將會是的兩個潛在獲利投資。

 

主要交易

 

喬治.索羅斯將永遠被當成那個“打垮英格蘭銀行”的人們而記住。作為一個著名的外匯投機商，索羅斯不把他的眼光限制在一個特定的地理區域，而是在尋找機會時把整個世界考慮在内。1992年9月，他借了數十億美元的英鎊並將他們轉換成了德國馬克。

 

當英鎊崩盤後，索羅斯迅速以新的、低價值的英鎊償還了他的借款，在一天内因英鎊和德國馬克價值的變化賺取了超過10億美元。在沖底之後，他總共賺取將近20億美元。

 

他在1997年亞洲經濟危機時對亞洲貨幣做出了同樣的舉動，參與投機熱潮並導致泰铢的崩盤。這些交易非常的有效，因為投機者做空的國家貨幣與其他貨幣挂鈎，這意味著有協議支撐著這些貨幣以確保他們與挂鈎貨幣維持一個特定的匯率。

 

當投機者投資後，貨幣的發行者將被迫去維持在公開市場上購買他們貨幣的匯率。當政府用盡資金被迫放棄那一努力後，貨幣價值將一落千丈。

 

那時各國都處在索羅斯會對他們貨幣感興趣的恐懼裡。如果他那麼做了，其他投機者將會立刻加入戰局，這被描述成一群狼盯上了一群麋鹿。投機者可以借到的大量資金和槓桿的使用使各國政府幾乎無力承受攻擊。

 

盡管取得了巨大的成功，但索羅斯的交易不是每一次都能獲利的。1987他預測美國市場將會持續增長，在那次沖擊中他的基金損失了3億美元，盡管還是獲得了一個較低的雙位數年回報。

 

他還在1998年俄羅斯債務危機中遭受了20億美元的損失，在1998年互聯網泡沫投資下跌時損失了7億美元。因為遭受了損失，他在預期增長上投入大量資金。當市場最終崩盤是他損失了將近30億美元。

 

總結

像索羅斯一樣投資不適合那些膽小或者資金不雄厚的人。多投資多盈利的另一面就是多投資多損失。如果你不能承受損失，你就不能承受像索羅斯一樣投資。盡管許多全球宏觀對沖基金交易員是相對低調的類型，不希望他們賺取財富受到太多的關註，索羅斯對許多經濟和政治事件的立場都非常公開。

 

公開的立場和巨大的成功使索羅斯自己成為了一類人。在過去超過30年的時間裡，他幾乎每一個投資都是正確的，這使他在交易員和投資者之間產生了大量粉絲，也在那些因他投機活動受到損失的人中產生大量的批評者。

 

George Soros: The Philosophy Of An Elite Investor 

 

By Lisa Smith

 

Did you know that a $1,000 investment with George Soros in 1969, would have been worth more than $4 million by now? This maverick hedge fund manager generated significant annual returns, after management fees. His flagship Quantum Fund is revered by investors. Despite the animosity generated by his trading tactics and the controversy surrounding his investment philosophy, George Soros spent decades at the head of the class among the world's elite investors. In 1981, Institutional Investor magazine named him "the world's greatest money manager."

 

Soros' Philosophy

George Soros is a short-term speculator. He makes massive, highly-leveraged bets on the direction of the financial markets. His famous hedge fund is known for its global macro strategy, a philosophy centered around making massive, one-way bets on the movements of currency rates, commodity prices, stocks, bonds, derivatives and other assets based on macroeconomic analysis.

 

Simply put, Soros bets that the value of these investments will either rise or fall. This is "seat of the pants" trading, based on research and executed on instinct. Soros studies his targets, letting the movements of the various financial markets and their participants dictate his trades. He refers to the philosophy behind his trading strategy as reflexivity. The theory eschews traditional ideas of an equilibrium-based market environment where all information is known to all market participants and thereby factored into prices. Instead, Soros believes that market participants themselves directly influence market fundamentals, and that their irrational behavior leads to booms and busts that present investment opportunities.

 

Housing prices provide an interesting example of his theory in action. When lenders make it easy to get loans, more people borrow money. With money in hand, these people buy homes, which results in a rise in demand for homes. Rising demand results in rising prices. Higher prices encourage lenders to lend more money. More money in the hands of borrowers results in rising demand for homes, and an upward spiraling cycle that results in housing prices that have been bid up way past where economic fundamentals would suggest is reasonable. The actions of the lenders and buyers have had a direct influence on the price of the commodity.

 

An investment based on the idea that the housing market will crash would reflect a classic Soros bet. Short-selling the shares of luxury home builders or shorting the shares of major housing lenders would be two potential investments seeking to profit when the housing boom goes bust. 

 

Major Trades

 

George Soros will always be remembered as "the man who broke the Bank of England." A well-known currency speculator, Soros does not limit his efforts to a particular geographic area, instead considering the entire world when seeking opportunities. In September of 1992, he borrowed billions of dollars worth of British pounds and converted them to German marks.

 

When the pound crashed, Soros repaid his lenders based on the new, lower value of the pound, pocketing in excess of $1 billion in the difference between the value of the pound and the value of the mark during a single day's trading. He made nearly $2 billion in total after unwinding his position.

 

He made a similar move with Asian currencies during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, participating in a speculative frenzy that resulted in the collapse of the baht (Thailand's currency). These trades were so effective because the national currencies the speculators bet against were pegged to other currencies, meaning that agreements were in place to "prop up" the currencies in order to make sure that they traded in a specific ratio against the currency to which they were pegged.

 

When the speculators placed their bets, the currency issuers were forced to attempt to maintain the ratios by buying their currencies on the open market. When the governments ran out of money and were forced to abandon that effort, the currency values plummeted. 

 

Governments lived in fear that Soros would take an interest in their currencies. When he did, other speculators joined the fray in what's been described as a pack of wolves descending on a herd of elk. The massive amounts of money the speculators could borrow and leverage made it impossible for the governments to withstand the assault.

 

Despite his masterful successes, not every bet George Soros made worked in his favor. In 1987, he predicted that the U.S. markets would continue to rise. His fund lost $300 million during the crash, although it still delivered low double-digit returns for the year.

 

He also took a $2 billion hit during the Russian debt crisis in 1998 and lost $700 million in 1999 during the tech bubble when he bet on a decline. Stung by the loss, he bought big in anticipation of a rise. He lost nearly $3 billion when the market finally crashed.

 

Conclusion

Trading like George Soros is not for the faint of heart or the light of wallet. The downside of betting big and winning big is betting big and losing big. If you can't afford to take the loss, you can't afford to bet like Soros. While most global macro hedge fund traders are relatively quiet types, avoiding the spotlight while they earn their fortunes, Soros has taken very public stances on a host of economic and political issues.

 

His public stance and spectacular success put Soros largely in a class by himself. Over the course of more than three decades, he made the right moves nearly every time, generating legions of fans among traders and investors, and legions of detractors among those on the losing end of his speculative activities. 

 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/how-soros-does-it.asp