索羅斯三次最偉大的投資

John Edwards  2016年2月10日

在過去幾十年中喬治索羅斯做出過做過許多令人印象深刻的投資和交易。他是世界金融領域最著名的投資人並以在外匯領域進行巨額投資聞名。人們相信他在做空英鎊時曾一天賺取超過10億美元。

索羅斯在二戰期間居住在匈牙利，最終移民到英國並在倫敦經濟學院學習。之後他搬到紐約。最後，他成立了索羅斯基金管理公司，該公司就是之後著名的對沖基金量子基金。到2013年，據估計該基金自開始運營以來已經盈利了400億美元。下面將介紹索羅斯三次最大的外匯下註。

做空英鎊

索羅斯對英鎊的做空被稱為有史以來最大的外匯交易。英國在高通脹和低利率的1991年加入了歐洲貨幣匯率機制。作為協議的一部分，英國同意與德國馬克保持一定範圍的固定匯率。索羅斯意識到英鎊對德國馬克的價值被高估。當時英鎊處於協議範圍的低端。英國被迫提高利率吸引英鎊的買家。

在1992年夏天，索羅斯開始做空英鎊。根據他同事的介紹，在整個夏天的大多數時候他都持有價值15億美元的做空倉位。英國政府通過一次次的提高利率保護英鎊。英國政府很快意識到他們將為保護英鎊支付巨額資金。德國官員也公開聲明歐洲貨幣匯率機制可能在九月中旬進行改組。

為了回應德國官員的這些評論，索羅斯決定大幅度增加持有的倉位。他在9月中旬將持有的倉位從15億美元增加到100億美元。這時英國政府在支撐英鎊上遇到了麻煩。這時英鎊可能保持相對穩定，在這種情況下索羅斯和他的投資者將會損失小部分資金，或者相反他們的下註將會獲得豐厚回報。因此那是一個低風險大機會的交易。

英國政府在1992年9月16日被迫放棄歐洲貨幣匯率機制並允許英鎊自由浮動。第二條英鎊對德國馬克下跌15%，對美元下跌25%，據估計索羅斯在那次交易中賺取了超過100億美元。

做空泰铢

據稱索羅斯在1997年亞洲金融危機中也大規模做空過泰铢。馬來西亞總理指控索羅斯襲擊亞洲貨幣，引起過一系列的反猶太評論。索羅斯之後澄清他在經濟危機發生之前幾個月的1997年早期就對亞洲貨幣的做空進行了平倉。在危機發生的秋天，索羅斯實際上是那些貨幣的買家，以交付之前的合約獲取利潤。

做空日圓

最近的一次是2013年和2014年對日圓的大規模做空。這些交易使索羅斯再次賺到約10億美元。索羅斯知道日本首相安倍正在使用極端貨幣寬鬆政策以刺激日本停滯的經濟。這些經濟政策被稱為安倍經濟政策。

這些量化寬鬆導致日圓貶值。與此同時，索羅斯買入日經指數。在索羅斯交易期間日圓下跌了約17%，而日本股市上漲了約28%。索羅斯家族投資基金價值接近240億美元，2013年回報約10%。

George Soros: 3 Best Investments Ever 

By John Edwards | Updated February 10, 2016 

George Soros has made a number of impressive investments and trades over the years. He is one of the most famous investors in the financial community and is known for making massive currency bets on a global economic scale. It is believed he made up to $1 billion in a single day on a trade where he shorted the British pound.

Soros lived in Hungary during World War II, eventually emigrating to England to study at the London School of Economics. He later moved to New York City. Eventually, he formed Soros Fund Management, which became the Quantum Fund, a prominent hedge fund. By 2013, it was estimated the fund had generated $40 billion since its inception. The following are three of his largest currency trades.

Bet Against the Pound

Soros’ bet against the British pound has been called one of the greatest currency trades of all time. Britain joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM, in 1991 during a period of high inflation and low interest rates. As part of that agreement, Britain agreed to keep the pound within a certain band in relation to the German mark. Soros recognized the pound was overvalued versus the German mark. It was trading on the lower end of the agreed-upon range with the mark. Britain was forced to keep raising interest rates to attract buyers for its currency.

During the summer of 1992, Soros began building a short position in sterling. According to his colleagues, he carried a $1.5 billion short position for most of the summer. The British government defended the pound by raising interest rates more and more. The government soon realized it would pay out massive amounts of money to defend the pound. German officials also made public statements that realignment within the ERM might be possible in mid-September.

In response to these comments by German officials, Soros decided to massively increase the size of his bet. He went from a $1.5 billion position to a massive $10 billion in the middle of September. He knew the pound was at the lower end of the range with the mark. The British government was having trouble keeping it propped up. Either the pound stayed relatively stable, in which case Soros and his investors would lose a little money, or the alternative was their bet would pay off. Thus, this was a low-risk, high-opportunity trade.

The British government was forced to abandon the ERM and begin allowing its currency to float freely on the evening of Sept. 16, 1992. The next day the pound fell 15% versus the German mark and 25% against the U.S. dollar. It is estimated Soros made around $1 billion on the trade.

Bet Against the Baht

Soros also allegedly made a made a massive bet against the baht during the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The Malaysian Prime Minister accused Soros of attacking Southeast Asian currencies, making a number of anti-Semitic comments against him. Soros later clarified he had sold those Asian currencies short early in 1997, months before the crisis. During the crisis that fall, Soros was actually a buyer of currencies to book profits on his previously made contracts to deliver large amounts of the currencies.

Bet Against the Yen

More recently, Soros made another large bet against the yen in 2013 and 2014. These bets once again netted Soros around $1 billion. Soros knew the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was engaging in extensive monetary easing to jump start Japan’s stagnant economy. These economic policies are known as Abenomics.

The quantitative easing had the effect of devaluing the yen. At the same time, Soros was long the Nikkei, the Japanese stock market. The yen weakened around 17% during the time of Soros’ wager, while the Japanese stock market rallied around 28% before eventually selling off. The Soros family investment fund, worth approximately $24 billion, returned around 10% during 2013.

本文反義由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090815/3-best-investments-george-soros-ever-made.asp