如何衡量外匯風險

最簡單的事有時最難理解、最難接受，這看起來不可思議，但我在交易世界中遇到過很多這樣的人，他們不知道如何操作帳戶，模擬帳戶不會用，真實帳戶就更不會了。於是我寫下這篇文章，告訴大家如何規避風險。

外匯交易本應很簡單，但是外匯新手或是沒有學過如何交易的人，往往會把事情弄得很複雜。很多人先操作模擬帳戶，這是個好的開始。匯商會提供模擬帳戶，而模擬帳戶到手之後的第一步就是好好“玩”。怎麼玩呢？就是隨便交易，甚至把這里當作賭場，每筆交易都是一次賭博。模擬帳戶面臨的風險和真實帳戶是一樣的。

很多人的外匯交易第一步都是開一個10萬或50萬美元的模擬帳戶。模擬帳戶本身並沒有錯，但模擬帳戶的起始資金很大，交易者就可以做“大手筆”的交易，過程中是允許出錯的。無論賺了賠了，管理不善早晚都會發生的，進行大手筆交易或是同時交易很多個貨幣對的時候就會出現管理不善的狀況。新手的這些錯誤會導致不必要的結果。有些錯誤會形成習慣，在未來的真實帳戶中也會如此操作。真實帳戶的損失都是因為重複這些錯誤。人們做事會依照習慣，在真實交易中會引發致命的結果。

舉例來講，一個交易員開了一個真實帳戶，入金一萬美元，並且每筆的交易量是帳戶金額的10%。假設他連續虧損十次，那麼此時他的帳戶餘額將不足入金量的35%。一個交易員要先學會自救，然後找到自己的節奏。在成為一個經驗老道的交易員之前，即使賺不到錢，也要努力減少損失。

進入外匯市場要做的第一件事就是學會觀察市場，不要像其他人一樣魯莽行事。每筆交易都不能超過帳戶金額的2%，這是一項交易求生技能，在這樣的情況下，即使連續虧損十筆也有機會挽回。再好的交易員也會遭遇滑鐵盧，你也會遇到的。虧損是交易中的常態，我們必須學會向前走。

再舉一個例子，每筆交易都用帳戶的2%，即使連續虧損30次，你也僅僅損失了55%。這是一種交易生存技能也是機智的金錢管理方式。如果一個交易員連續虧損30次，那他在進行下一筆交易之前，應該好好反思他的交易策略出了什麼問題。不要害怕糾正你的錯誤，交易和管理的意義就在於不斷犯錯再不斷矯正。

很多人進入外匯市場，是因為外匯收益快，不用去正式的學校或機構培訓就可以上手。損失35%很容易嗎？非常不容易。但這種情況通常發生在新手和沒有受過良好培訓的交易員身上。我相信大多數交易員都遇到過這種情況。以我自身的經驗來看，我見過交易員冒著爆倉的風險去交易。那些人都是自己摸索且沒有受過資本管理教育的，你千萬不要成為其中的一員。

How To Measure Risk in Forex

It seems incredible, but sometimes the simplest things can be the most difficult to accept and understand. While working in this exciting world of trading, I’ve met many people who have no idea how to manage an account, whether demo or even worse, a real account. I’m writing this article to shed light on how to work towards managing your risk.

Forex trading should be simple. Undoubtedly, those who make it difficult are usually the ones who have never traded the markets or been properly taught how to trade. Many first start with a demo account. It’s the best choice as a beginner and is offered by a broker. The first thing to do with a demo account is to “play” with it. The term “play” refers to meaningless trades and worse when they compare it to a casino, gambling in every trade and choosing a side. The beginner also risks amounts that have nothing to do with the reality of a real account.

When many begin to trade the Forex Market, the first thing they do is open a “practice” demo account for $100,000 or $500,000. There is nothing wrong with practice! By having such a large initial amount, the rookie trader will make “large” trades and there begins room for error. Win or lose, mismanagement will happen sooner or later. Mismanagement can be in the form of abusing the number of lots traded or trading many currency pairs simultaneously, both mistakes of the novice trader resulting in risking more than necessary. Some will turn these errors into habits and will repeat the same habits when trading a live account. Many of a trader’s large losses come from repeated bad habits when trading “practiced” accounts. Human beings act by habit, which in trading can be fatal if not overcome.

One example is if a trader opens a live trading account with $10,000 and risks about 10% per trade. Let’s suppose they lose 10 consecutive trades, which can happen. After the 10^th trade, their account is now 35% lower from their original investment. A trader should learn to survive first and keep a constant rhythm. If they’re not winning, they’re hopefully not losing large amounts before learning to become a seasoned profitable trader.

The first thing to learn when trading the forex market is to have respect for the market. Do not let it drain you just like most people who try. A trader should not risk more than 2% of their account. This is a trading survival skill. Even if the trader loses 10 consecutives trades using 2% of their account, there is still hope to make it all back in a timely manner. A slump happens to the best trader in the world; it could happen to me and could happen to you as well. Losing trades is part of this business and we must learn to keep moving forward.

Another example, if a trader risks 2% of their account in each trade and lose up to 30 trades consecutively, their account will only reflect about a 55% drawdown. This is an act of survival trading skills and smart money management. A trader who loses up to 30 consecutive trades should look into their strategy and figure out what is wrong before continuing to trade. Don’t be afraid to continue to trade and correct your mistakes. That’s what trading and management is all about.

Many get involved in the Forex Market because it can quickly make returns on your investment and they think that you don’t need to dedicate time in a formal school or institution. Is it easy to make up a 35% loss? Absolutely not. However, this situation is common amongst beginner traders and unfortunately a regular outcome of not being educated on how to trade before getting starting. I’m sure this has happened to most traders at some point in their lives. In my experience as a Forex Analyst and trader, I have met risk- taking traders who managed to destroy their accounts in record time. Do not be part of the vast majority, especially with those who want to self-teach themselves on trading and aren’t educated on capital management.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.financemagnates.com/executives/insights/how-to-measure-risk-in-forex/