投資多樣化之謎

Adinah Brown

在世界上的任何地方，任何一本描述資產管理的書都強調多樣化的重要性，你的財務顧問可能會擔心你的資產配置，試圖將你的資產分配到成長股、國際股票、各種ETF等等，這樣你就可以免受某項資產暴跌的損害。因為你將雞蛋分散到不同的籃子里，很多很多的籃子。

你的財務顧問是絕對正確的。如果你將所有的雞蛋放在同一個籃子里，一旦有人踢翻了你的籃子，你就雞飛蛋打、血本無歸了。

多樣性的目的不僅是使你免於風險，它會在降低風險的同時提高收益。這不是一個簡單的過程，更準確地說是會涉及到各類資產的多樣化分數計算，從而找到適合投資者的組合。

但若你是一個專業的投資者，就市場及交易的產品有深切的認知，多樣性還會適合你嗎？

讓我們暫停一下，來思考多樣性在生活中的應用。想一想那些創造出巨額財富的人，他們都是通過多樣性實現的嗎？他們每一個人都是找到最適合的領域然後堅持做下去直至成功。馬克·紮克伯格會因為擔心科技衰落而跑去教普拉提課程嗎？

讓我們引用巴菲特的勒佈朗·詹姆斯類比來解釋這一點。巴菲特說：“如果你的隊伍中有勒佈朗·詹姆斯，不要讓他中途下場去給其他人騰位置。”

重點就在這里，如果你當前的投資已經能夠為自己提供高額的回報，而且高額的回報會繼續存在，那你會把錢取出來，然後投到那些明顯達不到這麼高回報率的產品中嗎？

如果考慮到持有產品多樣性分析的類別，結果就很明顯了。對於主要的持有資產，你分析的目的是利潤預期，你看重的是潛在獲利能力。而你的多樣化產品呢？你分析他們只是為了測試或了解多樣性分數。也許你只是想要一個涉及多個市場闆塊的ETF。這里有你的利潤目標嗎？

你已經選擇了主要持有資產，因為你非常相信它的獲利能力。你的多樣化持有資產只是為了對獲利資產進行補充，從而達到平衡。

對於那些非專業投資者，他們的投資組合可能不是勒佈朗·詹姆斯，因此多樣性就很重要了。但是投資者都是為利而來。他們中大多數都喜歡波動性，因為他們可以從中找到低價買入和大量交易的機會。

我認識一個優秀的投資人，對於他來說，多樣化就等於用詹姆斯·瓊斯替換掉勒佈朗·詹姆斯。在這種情況下，多樣化與投資存在的理由是相對的。

所以，如果你身處投資遊戲中，你的最佳選擇是派勒佈朗·詹姆斯打完全程。

The Myth of Diversification

Every risk management book in every corner of the world propounds the values of diversification. Your financial advisor is probably worrying about the weight of your assets and trying to balance them so that you get a healthy spread of growth stocks, international shares, broad ETF’s, bonds, or some other such thing that allows you to think that your immune from big drops, simply because you now have your eggs in many, many baskets.

And your financial advisor is 100% right. If you had all your eggs in one basket, and someone knocks over your basket, all your eggs are gone!

Diversification’s job is not just to protect you from risk. It seeks to provide higher returns AND lower risk. And this is not a simple process, but rather involves calculating the diversity scores between each asset to find the right correlation and then align this with the investor’s risk/reward profile.

But if you are a professional investor, with an intimate knowledge of the market and what you are trading, is diversification for you?

Let’s stop for a moment to think about applying diversification to life. Think about all the people that have created great wealth, and ask yourself, have they done it through diversification? Every last one of them found something that made them money and kept doing it until they were wealthy. Did Mark Zukerberg decide to switch to teaching Pilates in case his tech work fell through?

Actually, let’s use the Lebron James analogy postulated by none other than Warren Buffett to make this point. He said “If you have Lebron James on your team, don’t take him out of the game just to make room for someone else.”

This is the main point here. If you have an investment that has provided you with strong returns, and you expect will continue to make strong returns, would you take money out of this position to put it in a position that you don’t expect to make the same returns?

It’s telling when you think about the type of analysis that goes into identifying diversified holdings. For your primary holdings, you analyze them because of an expectation of profit. You have reviewed it primarily because of its profit potential. And your diversified holdings? Probably you analyzed the beta or checked that diversity score. Maybe you simply want an ETF in a completely different market sector. Is profit your primary objective here?

You have chosen your primary holdings because you strongly believe that it has profit potential. Your diversified holdings are simply because of the need to balance against the likely profitable holdings.
For someone that isn’t an investor, the profit holdings might not be Lebron James, and so diversification is critical. But an investor invests for profit. Most like volatility, since it gives them the chance to purchase low and plenty of volume to trade.

For someone who knows, and is a quality investor, diversity is the equivalent of taking out Lebron James and replacing him with James Jones (who is not as good a basketball player as Lebron, which is a massive understatement if you know basketball). In this case, diversification goes somewhat against the very raison d’etre of investing.

So if you are in the game of investing, your best play may be to ride Lebron James all the way to the title. Just like Cleveland did in 2016.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/the-myth-of-diversification/