隨著比特幣的熱議，比特幣/美元的價格在上週末突破了4980美元，而大多數加密貨幣交易所交易員等待買入的價格是5000美元。比特幣的價格在2017年上漲了300%，但真正有趣的是比特幣的迅速崛起也推動了其他區塊鍊貨幣和技術的發展。所有加密貨幣的舞台都在幾個月内擴張了數倍。
這就像2000年的互聯網泡沫，已經突破了我的舒適區，我的優步司機甚至建議我投資這個最不確定卻最有前途的加密貨幣。如果這還不是泡沫膨脹到極致的表現，我也無話可說。
實際情況是，任何人都不知道比特幣的真實價值。
對很多技術和金融市場評論員來說，它是個方案，尋找著需要它來解決的問題。當前的貨幣估值都是基於對未來技術應用的預期。你拿它毫無辦法，除非像黑市產品一樣對待。我聽說過各種價格，有5000美元、一萬美元甚至一百萬美元，但任何一個都沒有現實基礎。尤其是在當前的市場條件下，還有上百種貨幣可以迅速崛起甚至超越比特幣，所有的估值都是抽象的。
Jason Bloomberg 6月26日在福佈斯雜志中指出：“在人類商業歷史中，從來沒有任何一個資產的泡沫是沒有内在價值的。”與之相對，比特幣能提供的只有内在價值，因為網絡世界的加密貨幣沒有任何政府背書，沒有人為它提供外在價值。
貨幣需求可以通過特定時間段内的貨幣交易量來判斷，但是加密貨幣太過虛無缥缈，以至於無從判定。互聯網泡沫產生的影響實在是太大了，大到讓人無法忽視，它時刻提醒我，加密貨幣也會走上這條路。一旦加密貨幣普及，我們就能對虛擬貨幣進行真實的估價。現在是一片荒謬的非理性繁榮景象，要到那一天還要幾週甚至幾個月。顯然，我不願意花錢來探這條路。
The real value of Bitcoin
Adinah Brown
As debate continues on whether the B in Bitcoin is to be capitalised or not, the BTC/USD pair hit $4,980 over the weekend, which is actually $5,000 for most traders looking to buy on cryptocurrency exchanges once the spread is included. That the price has skyrocketed over 300% in 2017 alone is an impressive and well-known statistic, but what’s really interesting is that its meteoric rise has also pulled up other blockchain currencies and technologies. Everything in the cryptocurrency arena has risen hundreds of percentage points in value within a matter of months.
Resembling the .com bubble of 2000 far too much for my comfort level, my Uber driver is recommending taking a stake in the most obscure, but most promising cryptocurrency. If this is not an indication that we’re near the top of this massive speculative bubble, I don’t know what it is.
The reality is, nobody really knows how much each individual Bitcoin is fundamentally worth.
For many technology and financial markets commentators, it’s still a solution looking for a problem. Its current valuation is based on hypothetical and prospective uses for the technology. There is nothing you can do with it that you can’t already do with the US dollar, except perhaps deal in black-market goods. I’m hearing random valuation numbers thrown around, $5,000 US dollars per Bitcoin, $10,000, $1,000,000… but none of them seem to be grounded in fundamentals. These numbers become even more abstract when literally hundreds of other cryptocurrencies could easily rise up and take the market capitalisation crown away from Bitcoin.
As Jason Bloomberg notes in his June 26th article in Forbes, ‘Never before in the history of commerce has a speculative bubble developed around an asset that had no clear intrinsic value.’ Contrary to this, it could be argued that Bitcoin only offers intrinsic value, as the digital world cryptocurrency is not backed by any government inherently, giving it no extrinsic value.
Money demand can be assessed by the number of transactions a currency performs within a time frame, but with cryptocurrencies, this is also virtually impossible to determine. The resonance with .com bubble is just too strong to ignore, giving me every indication that this too will pop. Once it does, we might get a more realistic value of virtual currencies, though I’d say there’s roughly a couple of weeks to a couple of months left of this party, based off current sentiment and levels of irrational exuberance alone. Admittedly, I’m not willing to put money on this prediction.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/real-value-bitcoin/