理解控制

TAKE CONTROL 23, 1999 - 02:50 pm 藥渣 譯

In my mind, control is an important issue that has a great deal to do with understanding the process of trading and doing it successfully. There many parts of the trading process where exercising control is relatively easy and other parts of the process where control is much more difficult. For example, the entry into a trade is a point where we are very much in control. We set the conditions and the market must meet our conditions or we will simply refuse to participate. This is clearly the point in the trading process where we can exercise maximum control.

理解控制 23, 1999 - 02:50 pm

在我看來，交易中的控制能力是一個非常重要的問題，不理解這一點就無法很好的理解交易過程，也無法成功的交易。在交易過程中，有些部分相對較容易控制，有些部分相對較難控制。例如，我們能非常容易的控制入市時機。我們可以設置一些條件，當市場滿足我們的條件時我們就入市，反之我們就拒絕交易。很明顯，在交易過程的入市時機選者上我們擁有最大的控制權。

詞匯筆記： there 1)在那裡，到那裡 There he found the lamp. 他在那裡找到了燈 2)在這一點上，在這裡 There I cannot agree with you. 在這一點上我不能同意你的意見。Don’t stop there—tell me what happened next! 別在這裡停下，告訴我後來怎樣了！There you are mistaken.在這一點上你可錯了。

I can recall attending some lectures many years ago by George Lane (of stochastic indicator fame) when he revealed to the audience a list of items that he wanted to see before he entered a trade. His pre-entry checklist had twenty-seven conditions on it. Being a skeptic of complex trading strategies I dont recall what any of these twenty seven items were except Im sure at least one of them was the stochastic indicator. At the point of carefully reviewing his checklist George was very much in control of the situation and if the market didnt do exactly what he wanted he didnt trade.

我還記得幾年前我參加過喬治做過的一些講座（關於很有名氣的隨機指標），他向聽衆們揭示了他在進入一筆交易前，市場必須滿足的條件清單，一共有27項。由於我對複雜的交易策略持懷疑態度，現在我記不起27項中的任何一項，但至少有一點我能肯定的是其中有一項是隨機指標。通過仔細檢查條件清單，喬治可以非常完美的控制入場時機，如果市場不滿足要求，他就不交易。

詞匯筆記： stochastic 有可能的；隨機的 skeptic=sceptic 持懷疑態度的人；懷疑論者

As I often point out in my lectures, entries are the easy part of trading. This is because each of us has maximum control at this point. We can exercise as much or as little control as we like. George Lane can require every one of his twenty-seven criteria and I can require my usual two setups and a trigger condition. However the control situation changes drastically once we enter the trade. Our ability to control all the elements of the trade now becomes much more difficult and far from absolute. Once we enter a futures trade we know that we must exit that trade within a limited period of time or we are going to be in trouble because the contract will expire. Even stock traders who dont need to be concerned about expiring contracts must exit their positions correctly if they wish to maximize their profits.

我經常在演講中指出，入市是交易中最容易的部分。這是因為我們每一個人在這一點上擁有最大的控制力，我們想怎麼控制就怎麼控制，可以控制的多一點，也可以控制的少一點。喬治要求市場必須滿足他的27項規則，我要求市場必須滿足我通常使用的兩個參數和一個啟動條件。然而一旦我們進入交易，控制情況就會急劇變化。我們控制交易中所有元素的能力變得越來越差，幾乎不可能做到完全的控制力。一旦我們進入期貨市場，我們知道在一定時間内我們必須退出市場，因為期貨合約是有期限的。即使股票交易者無須考慮合約期限，如果他們要達到最大化贏利，也必須在合適的時機退出交易。

Exits are much more difficult than entries because we can not simply reverse the entry process and require that the market do thus and such. Once we are in the trade George Lane and I can both throw our lists out the window because we can no longer dictate our terms to the market. The market is now in control and we must be prepared to react to whatever the market does. The market can do anything it wants once we have entered our trade and we can be assured that the market doesnt care what conditions might be on our list or what our preferences might be. Once we enter the trade we are at the mercy of the market the market operates according to its own list and that list of possibilities is much larger than George Lanes meager list of twenty-seven items. The markets options are limitless. It can do anything it wants whenever it wants and somehow we must be prepared to deal with it. Where is our control now?

退出比進入更困難，因為我們無法簡單的讓讓交易過程逆轉，也不能讓市場這樣或那樣走。一旦進入交易，我和喬治都可以把我們的入市條件清單扔到窗外，因為我們再也不能向市場下命令了。現在由市場來控制我們，現在我們必須準備好應對市場的任何變化。一旦我們進入交易，市場可以做他想做的任何事，我們所能確定的是市場永遠也不會關心我們的條件清單或者我們的喜好。一旦我們進入市場，我們就得任由市場擺佈，市場根據他自己的條件清單來走，其清單的可能數目是無限的，相比之下喬治的27條顯得微不足道。市場的選擇是無限的，無論在任何時候它都可以做它想做的事，我們必須以某種發式準備好應對措施。現在我們能控制什麼？

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