市場有四個階段，並且沒有任何一個交易系統都適用於所有階段。一些交易系統適合調整期，即階段1和階段3，而另外一些交易系統則適合階段2和階段4.趨勢交易比較流行，因為它可以在較短時間内帶來較大盈利。
趨勢交易
趨勢交易的目標是在階段1和階段2的過渡期做多，並在階段4之前平倉。一些交易模型會在4階段做空，但是這一方法只適合有經驗的交易者。
成功的交易系統通常具有以下原則：
1. 尋找股票
利用股票篩選器識別股票市場領導者。
2. 市場趨勢
(a)決定要交易的時間框架。.
(b) 利用合適的趨勢指標確認市場走勢
3. 趨勢方向
利用同樣的趨勢指標確認每一只股票的走勢。
4. 開倉信號
(a) 利用震蕩指標找到進場信號
(b) 利用追蹤止損來確認平倉位置
5. 止損
(a) 成功下單之後立刻設置止損。
(b) 不要超過最大可接受損失。
(c) 止損要與交易系統給出的信號一致。
(d) 不斷的調整止損以鎖定盈利。
6. 平倉信號
根據合適的趨勢指標的信號平倉。
提醒
這些都是交易者在決定購買哪只股票時需要思考的，什麼時候買入和賣出。這不是一個神奇的公式，但是堅持使用會提高你的交易結果。交易方法可以比作為木匠的工具：熟練使用可以產生出色效果，不熟練會導致受傷。在投入資金之前，要學會正確的使用你的交易工具。持續幾年研究指標的長處和短處，了解它們彼此間是如何相互影響的，它們與市場又有什麼聯系。從小量的資金開始，當自己對交易策略有很大把握的時候再增加資金投入。
1. 股票市場領導者
當選擇交易股票的時候，要註重選擇市場領導者而不是那些落後者。只投資於自己所了解的企業。如果你對自己區別好壞的能力不自信，那麼你可以咨詢股票經紀人或財務顧問的意見。同時，你也可以考慮根據基本趨勢購買成長型基金。
股票市場領導者
利用股票篩選器比較過去一年中走勢相對較好的股票，並對比其中的前10%。
• 過去三年裡每股的銷量和收益是否都有較大幅度增長？
• 股票銷量和收益在最近幾個季度是否都有所增長？警惕因成本縮減和裁員帶來的短期收益提高，因為這勢必會以長期收益為代價。
• 尋找具有可持續的競争優勢和強勁的增長前景的股票。公司是否有競争優勢？調查它們的產品和服務：是否有更好的技術，更強的品牌，版權和專利？與同行比較，它們是否擁有更強專業能力？
產業領域
利用股票篩選器選出表現相對較好的產業領域。從表現最好的產業領域選出要交易的股票：
• 在同樣的產業領域找出2個或多個股票市場領導者。
• 比較不同產業領域過去三年中的相對表現，並從這些產業領域找出表現較好的領域。
阻力位
尋找那些近期不會遇到支撐位、走出新高的股票市場領導者。
例：嘉信理財公司股票週走勢圖以及其與標普500的價格比。
證券經紀人在90年代是主導行業之一。嘉信理財在快速增長的高收益推動下，在1998年10月20日創下新高。
1. 價格比，表現了嘉信理財公司股票與標普500的相對價格比，在1998年中期[1]處急劇下降。
2. 價格比在第三季度[2]處快速回升，並在10月20日在[H]處走出新高。
2. 市場方向
市場的總體趨勢影響著相對較小市場以及每一只股票的走勢。在分別看到每一只股票之前，你需要研究一下市場的大趨勢。
(a)時間框架
決定你要交易的時間週期，這會影響你對指標的選擇：
• 長期或主要趨勢是以年衡量的；
• 中期或次級走勢通常為3週至6個月之間；
• 短期趨勢時間低於3週；
• 日内趨勢；
(b) 趨勢指標
根據一系列的交易系統確定市場將來走勢：
• 利用趨勢指標來確定市場的基本趨勢。
• 查看道瓊斯工業平均指數、標準普爾500和納斯達克指數。道瓊斯道瓊斯指數包括排名前30位績優工業類股，而S＆P500指數更能代表整個市場。納斯達克對高科技股票價格的影響更大。
• 此外，如果你要是在美國以外的國家交易，比如英國市場的富時100指數以及澳大利亞的ASX 200指數。
例：下圖為標準普爾500指數以及7日、150日均線。
做多信號在10月23號產生
• 7日均線上穿至150日均線之上。
• 150日均線向上傾斜。
3. 趨勢方向
根據趨勢交易
利用趨勢指標確定價格是否處於趨勢中還是調整期。只有當趨勢與信號一致的時候才有效。
例：嘉信理財公司股票走勢，利用7日、150日指數移動平均線來確定基本趨勢。
市場在在10月23號給出股價上升信號，股價在[M]處上漲動力強勁。
• 7日指數移動平均線在 [T]處上穿150日指數移動平均線；
• 150日指數移動平均線向上傾斜。
同時，次級走勢不斷升高的新高以及低點也與之吻合。股價在10月20日達到新高。
Trading Basics
The market has 4 basic phases and no trading system is suited to all of them. Some systems are suited to Phases 1 and 3, when the market is ranging, while others are designed to trade the trends in Phases 2 and 4. Trend-trading systems are more popular as they require less time and normally generate larger returns
Trading Trends
The object of trend-trading is to go long at the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 and to exit before Phase 4. Some models also short the market during Phase 4, but this should be left to experienced traders .
Successful systems are built around the following principles:
7. Selecting securities.
Use the Stock Screener to identify potential Market Leaders.
8. Market direction.
(a) Decide on the Time Frame that you are trading.
(b) Confirm the Market Direction using a suitable trend indicator.
9. Trend direction.
Using the same indicator, check the Trend Direction of each security.
10. Entry signals.
(a) Take Entry Signals from a suitable momentum oscillator.
(b) Use Trailing Stops to time entry and exit points.
11. Stop losses.
(a) Set Stop Loss Orders as soon as your trade is confirmed.
(b) Do not exceed the Maximum Acceptable Loss.
(c) Be technically consistent when Setting Stop Levels.
(d) Adjust Stop Levels over time to protect your profits.
12. Exit signals.
Take Exit Signals from a suitable trend indicator.
A Word Of Caution
These are typical steps that a trader will follow in deciding what stocks to buy, when to buy them and when to sell. It is not a magic formula, but consistent use should enhance your investment performance.
Trading methods can be compared to a carpenter's tools: Skilled use can produce outstanding results but unskilled use may lead to injury. Learn to use your trading tools properly before committing any capital. Study the behavior of the indicators over several years, learn their strengths and weaknesses and how they interact with each other and with the market. Start with a small amount of capital and only increase this when you are confident that you have a winning strategy.
1. Market Leaders
When selecting stocks, focus on market leaders rather than laggards.
Only invest in businesses that you understand. If you are not confident in your ability to separate the good from the bad then use a stockbroker's or financial advisor's recommendations. Alternatively, consider investing in a good growth fund and switch in/out with the primary trend.
Market Leaders
Use the Stock Screener to compare the relative performance of all stocks over the past 12 months. Analyze the top 10 per cent:
• Have sales and earnings per share grown strongly over the past 3 years?
• Have sales and earnings per share growth accelerated in recent quarters? Be on the alert for cost reductions and layoffs that may enhance short-term performance at the expense of long-term growth.
• Look for sustainable competitive advantage and strong growth prospects.
Does the company have a competitive edge? Examine their products or services: do they have better technology; stronger brands; copyrights or patents; or greater expertise; that gives them an advantage over competitors?
Industry Sectors
Use the Stock Screener to identify the industry sectors that show the best relative performance. Select stocks from top industry sectors:
• Look for two or more market leaders in the same industry sector.
• Compare the relative performance of industry sectors over the last 3 years and look for market leaders from these sectors.
Resistance Levels
Select stocks that are clear of major resistance levels. Look for market leaders that have recently made new highs or turnarounds that are well below major resistance levels.
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab is charted below with weekly Price Ratio showing performance relative to the S&P 500.
Securities Brokers were one of the leading industry sectors in the 90's. Charles Schwab reached a new high on 20 October 1998 on the back of strong earnings growth.
3. The Price Ratio, depicting stock performance relative to the S&P 500, fell sharply during the mid-1998 correction [1].
4. Price Ratio recovers sharply in the third quarter [2], making a new high [H] on 20 October.
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2. Market Direction
The overall market influences the performance of smaller markets and individual stocks. Study the big picture first before looking at any shares in isolation.
(a) Time Frame
Decide on the cycle that you are going to trade:
• Long-term (or primary) trends that are measured in years;
• Intermediate (or secondary) trends of 3 weeks up to 6 months;
• Short-term cycles of less than 3 weeks; and
• Intra-day trends.
This will influence your indicator settings. More details can be found at Time Frames and Indicator Time Frames.
(b) Trend Indicator
Trade only in the direction of the overall market:
• Use a trend indicator to determine the direction in which the market is trending.
• Chart either the Dow Industrial Average, Standard & Poor 500 or the NASDAQ index.
The Dow comprises the top 30 blue chip industrial stocks while the S&P 500 is more representative of the entire market. The NASDAQ has more influence on tech stock prices.
• In addition, chart a local market index such as the FTSE 100 for the UK market or the ASX 200 for Australia, if you are trading outside the USA.
Reading The Market discusses a number of systems used to determine market direction.
EXAMPLE
The Standard & Poor 500 is charted with 7-day and 150-day exponential moving averages, used to track the primary trend.
An up-trend is signaled on October 23rd when:
• The fast MA crosses to above the slow MA; and
• The slow MA slopes upwards.
3. Trend Direction
Trade only in the direction of the trend:
Use a trend indicator to identify whether the security is trending orranging. Only take signals if the security is trending upwards.
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab is charted with 7-day and 150-day exponential moving averages, used to track the primary trend.
By October 23rd, when the market signals an up-trend [M], the stock is trending strongly upwards:
• The fast MA crosses above the slow MA at [T]; and
• The slow MA slopes upwards.
This is also evident from the successively higher peaks and troughs on the secondary cycle and the new High reached on October 20th.
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