雖然我不認識你，但是我知道大部分的投資者都有一些複雜的交易習慣。大部分時候都是精神上的。
Edward Toppel在他的《市場中的禅》一書中寫道“市場是一個簡單的遊戲。投資者不顧一切地投入從而讓它變得非常複雜。這也是讓我們難以獲得勝利的原因。”
震蕩，回調，波動，時間段，趨勢線等等…有時，這會讓市場複雜化。或許它就像Toppel說的一樣的簡單。
下面是一些我們都知道的市場規則：
• 低買高賣
• 留住盈利的單子，迅速平倉虧損單
• 增加盈利倉位
• 追隨趨勢交易
你成功了！毫無疑問的！容易理解！
然而，問題是，你不斷地打破規則。
你沒有跟隨趨勢，而是逆趨勢做短線交易因為你覺得自己比市場了解得更多。通常，投資者認為他們知道何時獲利平倉，從而過早地平掉盈利倉位。你呢？
你用以“我”開頭的句子來描述你的錯誤及缺點是十分重要的。因為最終，外匯是一個零和遊戲，你是在與自己做競争。
市場並不具備人性。經紀商在平掉幾乎沒有盈利單子時也沒有人性；因為他們只想平掉一筆糟糕的交易或者倉位，並盡可能快地用一筆好交易來替代它。
不，這是交易過程不可或缺的一部分——這是市場。因此…
你是交易的唯一責任人
Toppel開門見山地說道，一旦我們理解是在與自己競争，那麼罪犯就很容易鎖定。他就是“大E先生”（ego，自我）。
因為“大E先生”阻攔我們進行正確地交易，它認為自己是正確的。它使我們喪失了正確交易的能力。交易心理學大師Mark Douglas這麼說道，“你可以在不知道市場會發生什麼的情況下盈利。”現在，這或許聽起來很奇怪。事實上是，外匯交易只不過是一個概率選擇。僅此而已。
如果你能用這些思維來考慮問題，我認為它可以幫助你再交易的方程式中移除“大E先生”。Douglas說，當你投擲一枚正面朝上的硬幣，而背面朝上地落下時，你的“大E先生”不會受到打擊，因為你知道這僅僅是一個概率問題。外匯交易也應該有同樣的考慮方式。但是我明白，這說起來容易做起來難；
“大E先生”存在於你應該怎麼做與你認為自己該如何操作之間。“所有人的自我都是有生命的。它比核彈的威力更大。”Toppel寫道。同時他也談論到如何改變自我，“無意識的景象”——不摻雜個人情感地看待事物，而不是從自我角度認為它們應該是怎樣。
你有多少次提前預測經濟事件，報告，但仍然在交易中虧損？
如果市場是有邏輯性的，那麼我們就都會成為贏家！
這也就是為什麼我嘗試使用標準的亞裡士多德的邏輯…
提出理由和論據，然後得出結論。但你需要記住的是你的結論代表了另外一種情況；嘗試通過盡可能多的可能性建立一個有競争力的場景。然後同時在你的腦中呈現兩種不同的想法。
當然，你可能會喜歡其中的一種情況。但是，你最好不要戀上你所想象的任何一個故事。當你愛上自己的一個故事時，說明“大E先生”再次控制了你。讓我們看看很多投資者愛上的各種想法：
• 黃金將上升至$2,000。黃金會降到 $300。
•油價將上漲到$200。油價會降至 $30。
• 美指會下降到40。美指會上升到125。
這些是基於邏輯的潛在可能性，但是…
“如果市場具有邏輯性，我們將會是贏家。”Toppel妙語。“所以，讓我們放棄應用這種情況下設計出來的可以達到預期盈利的系統，因為這些系統的分析過濾掉了大量的數據。”
你應該放棄它，並只顧著扔飛镖嗎？也許，如果這適合你。假設沒有人在你的镖靶前走來走去是簡單和毫無壓力的。
但現實是，你能做的最好就是“保持現在的時刻”。你需要判定“現在時刻”是什麼。這可能是五分鐘，也可能是一週。
市場向導對Jack Schwager採訪的一篇報道中說，一個交易者說他每天早晨醒來，他將自己的所有倉位都認為是新開設的。所有的倉位都應用風險/回報率因為這是新的一天——這就是“現在的時刻”。
“你的自我聲音是噪音。不要傾聽它的指揮，尋求那些值得跟隨的市場專家的建議——市場。不要使它複雜化並使簡單的真相變得模糊。忘記你的聲音，傾聽市場給你的發出的清晰的指令。相信自己的感覺，不要試圖去領導市場。”Toppel補充道。
但仍然需要重申的是，說的比做的容易；但仍然有幫助你實現這個目標：
• 不要逆趨勢交易。
• 不論趨勢如何，你必須假設它將會持續。
• 當趨勢反轉的時候你會知道，因為價格會發生變化。
當然，你的交易時間框架越短，這個簡單而有效的思考方法就會變得越難。但是如果你沒有試圖預測每個反轉，那麼你的外匯交易也能變得簡單。
最好的祝願，
傑克
How to Keep Your Currency Trading Simple — Put Mr. E on Ice!
Jack Crooks | Saturday, August 4, 2012 at 7:30 am
I don’t know about you, but investors often get tangled in trading ruts. And most of the time it’s all mental.
“The market is an easy game to play. It is just that we are hell-bent upon making it so complicated. That’s what makes it so difficult for us to win,” Edward Toppel writes, in his gem of a book, Zen in the Markets.
Oscillators, retracements, waves, time counts, trend lines, blah, blah, blah … into infinitum at times, making it harder than it is. Maybe it is just as simple as Toppel says.
Here are the rules; we all know them:
• Buy low, sell high.
• Let profits run, cut losses quickly.
• Add to a winning position, not a loser.
• Go with the trend.
Bingo! Unequivocal! Easy to understand!
The problem, however, is when you break the rules on a consistent basis.
Instead of going with the trend, do you look to make a short-term trade against the trend because you think you know more than the market? Often, investors believe they can tell when a profit should be taken and, thus, cut their winners short. How about you?
It is important that you describe your mistakes and weaknesses in the “I” term. Because in the end, even though currencies are a zero-sum game, you are in competition with yourself here.
The market does not personalize. Dealers don’t personalize if they “gun a stop” when trading is thin; after all, they just want to exit a bad trade, or position for a good one, as quickly as possible.
No, it is part-and-parcel to the process — it is the market. Therefore …
There Is Only One Person to Blame
Toppel cuts to the chase. Once we understand we are in competition with ourselves, the culprit is easy to spot. He refers to it as the “Big E,” for ego.
Because the Big E gets in the way and thinks it’s right, it robs us of the ability to do the right thing.
Trading psychology guru Mark Douglas put it this way, “You don’t have to know what’s going to happen in order to make money in the market.”
Now, that may sound odd to you. But the reality is that currency trading is nothing more than a probability bet. No more and no less.
If you can think of it in those terms, I think it helps remove the Big E from the equation. For as Douglas says, you don’t take an ego hit when you pick heads and then tails comes up on a coin flip. You know it is all about probabilities.
Currency trading should be considered the same. But, that is easier said than done; I know that too well.
Big E is wedged between how you should and how you do think of trading. “Really, ego has a life of its own within all of us. Its hold is more powerful than a plutonium bomb,” Toppel writes.
Toppel talks about how you can change Big E’s hold. He writes about the idea of “egoless sight” — seeing things for what they are and not for what your ego would like them to be.
How often have you nailed all the economic stuff in advance, predicted all the news, reports, etc. and still lost money on the trade?
If the Market Were Logical,
We’d All Be Winners!
This why I try to apply standard Aristotelian logic …
Come up with reasons and rationales; then draw a conclusion. But you should keep in mind that your conclusion represents an alternative scenario.
Always try to build an alternative competing scenario with as much plausibility as possible. And then hold both thoughts in your head at the same time.
Granted, one will be favored over the other. But, do your best not to fall in love with either side of your story.
When you do fall in love with your story, it proves Big E is once again taking control.
Let’s look at some of the ideas many investors have fallen in love with:
• Gold will rise to $2,000. Gold will fall to $300.
• Oil will rise to $200. Oil will fall to $30.
• The Dollar Index will fall to 40. The Dollar Index will rise to 125.
These were potential scenarios based on logic. But …
“If the market were logical, we’d all be winners,” Toppel quips. “So let’s give up applying a system of expected outcomes to that phenomenon that has eluded the best minds sifting through a multitude of data for their analyses.”
Should you give it all up and just throw darts? Maybe, if that works for you. It can be easier and stress-free, assuming no one wanders in front of your dartboard.
But the reality is, the best you can do is “stay in the now moment.” You have to define what a “now moment” is. It may be five minutes or it may be a week.
In one of the interviews in Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, a trader said that every day he wakes up, he considers any positions he has on as new positions. All new risk/reward criteria applies because it IS a new day — it is the now moment.
“The noise is your ego’s voice. Stop listening and turn to the only expert worth following — the market. Don’t make it difficult and obscure this simple truth. Forget your voice, and listen to the clear message and direct call given off by the market. Just feel, follow, and put full faith in your ability to blend with the leader, not attempt to lead the market,” adds Toppel.
Again, easier said than done; I realize. But there are ways to help you achieve this:
• Don’t trade against the trend.
• Whatever the trend is, you must assume it will continue.
• You will know when it reverses because prices will change.
Granted, the shorter-term your trading time frame, the more difficult this simple but powerful way to think becomes.
But if you avoid trying to predict every twist and turn, you can keep your currency trading simple.
Best wishes,
Jack
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/how-to-keep-your-currency-trading-simple-—-put-mr-e-on-ice-50185?replytocom=9350