交易的基礎（二）

4. 開倉、平倉信號

動能指標的讨論中列舉了不同震蕩指標的優點。你可以根據資金流動量指標（MFI）或MACD指標給出的信號開倉。事實上，一些分析師的入場點不依賴於任何指標，而是基於突破或者阻力位。根據交易的時間框架來設置所應用的指標。你需要權衡指標的響應性和可靠性：短的時間框架可以較早的給出交易信號，但是偶爾會出現錯誤。此時，追蹤止損可以很好的彌補這一缺陷：它可以有效的過濾不成熟的或者虛假的交易信號；它的自動開倉、平倉功能可以減輕交易者的心理壓力。

  示例1、嘉信理財公司股價以及7日、150日指數移動均線和7日相對強弱指數。

1. 有利的交易條件開始於10月23日，相對強弱指標短暫穿透零之後回升，29日產生了做多信號，這與趨勢線相吻合。在[1]處上方挂一個止損買入訂單。
2. 第二天價格高於第一天的高點，我們成功進場。並且，股價高於10月20日的高點，創出新高。

5. 止損

止損是當價格回落到特定價位被觸發的指令（如果做空的話，當價格升高到某一價位止損即被觸發）。如果使用得當，它有助於限制每一筆交易的損失。

(a).在成功下單之後，立刻在當日的最低價位下方一個點處設置止損。
(b).根據每一筆交易的保證金設置最大可承受止損。如果止損處的虧損超過所允許的最大值，不要下單。長線交易者在合理的分散風險之後，可以將損失設置為已占用保證金的6%，短線交易者可以設置為2%。
(c).根據支撐、阻力位，最高價和最低價以及別的技術分析設置止損。
(d).設置追蹤止損鎖定利潤。此外，密切關註那些可能意味著反轉形態的圖表。不是說要註意每一個小的反轉形態，而是要根據伴隨著不尋常的高交易量的大反轉形態（比如頭肩形態）適當的調整止損。如果不能確認，可以只調整部分倉位的止損。

示例2：嘉信理財公司股票與150指數移動均線（玫紅色曲線）。黃色橫線表示隨時間不斷調整的止損。
 
1. 10月30日在 [1] 處開始交易，並在A處下方設置止損。
2. 價格走勢形成了較高的低谷。根據B處的低點調整止損。
3. C處更高的低點形成，繼續向上調整止損。
根據每一輪的次級低谷調整止損位置。每一次新的止損都表示一輪趨勢線的重新開始。有時很難區分短期價格與次級價格走勢——週線圖可以用來忽略小幅價格波動。

示例3、嘉信理財股票與150日指數移動均線（玫紅色）和20日平均成交量線（藍色）。
 
1. 開倉做多。
2. 在持續了幾個月的上升趨勢之後，K處成交量突然升高。要註意K處的缺口。接下來股價開始較大波動範圍的關鍵反轉。缺口和高成交量足夠說明止損應該上移到缺口前一天的低點處。當缺口在第二天回補之後止損被觸發。
3. 價格走勢在之後可以很容易的被識別出來。但是在價格圖形成的過程中，比如說極端的K處以及平常的R處，很難識別。
4. 如果交易者根據K處的信號獲利（比如平掉50%倉位），並根據接下來的價格走勢不斷的調整止損位置。價格最終會在X處突破止損。

6. 平倉信號

利用趨勢指標離場。根據交易週期調整指標的時間框架。

示例3、嘉信理財公司股票的週線圖以及7日（玫紅色）、150日（藍色）指數移動平均線圖。
 
1. 1998年10月30日在 [L] 處以$10.13 價位開倉做多。
2. 1999年4月15日在關鍵反轉 [K] 處以 $44.75 價位部分平倉。
3. 剩下的倉位在1999年5月25日在[X] 處 以 $33.13價位平倉。
4. 價格於1999年6月14日在[Y] 處$27.25下穿150日指數移動平均線。
5. 7日指數移動平均線在1999年8月4日，$24.50價位向下穿透150日指數移動平均線。
如果止損沒有被觸發，根據平倉策略，倉位有可能在以下位置平倉：
• 在 [Y]處，當價格向下穿透150日指數移動平均線；
• 在 [Z] 處，當7日指數移動平均線向下穿透150日指數移動平均線。

交易總結
 
盈利在440% 到 240%之間。由此可知，平倉位置十分重要。

4. Entry & Exit Signals
(a) Entry Signals
The merits of the different oscillators are discussed at Momentum Indicators. It is also possible to use an oscillator such as the Money Flow Index or MACD to time your entry points. In fact, some analysts do not use indicators at all and base their entry points on breakouts above resistance levels.
Set the Indicator Time Frame to suit the cycle being traded. There is a trade-off between indicator responsiveness and reliability: a very short time frame may provide earlier, but occasionally incorrect, signals. Trailing stops help to compensate for this.
(b) Trailing Stops
Trailing Stops are useful for weeding out premature or false signals and help to alleviate some of thepsychological pressure on traders - by providing automatic entry and exit points.
 
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab with   7-day and   150-day exponential moving averages and   7-day relative strength index.
3. Favorable trading conditions (from Steps 2 & 3) commence on October 23rd. Shortly thereafter the RSI crosses to below zero and turns back above the zero line, giving a signal to go long [Oct 29]. The signal is strengthened by a failure swing, shown by the trendline.
Place a buy stop order above the High on the signal day [1].
4. We are stopped in on day [2] when price rises above the High of the previous day. By the close the stock had formed a new High, surpassing the High of October 20th.
5. Stop Losses
A Stop-Loss is an order which is only placed in the market if price falls to a specified level (if short, the stop is activated if price rises to a specified level). If used correctly, they help to limit the losses on individual trades.
Further details can be found at the links provided.
(a) Stop Losses
Stop-losses should be set as soon as each trade is confirmed. Set the stop-loss one tick below the lowest Low since the signal day.
(b) Maximum Acceptable Loss
Set your Maximum Acceptable Loss on any one trade, as a percentage of the capital committed. Never enter a trade if the stop-loss will exceed this limit.
A long-term investor/trader with reasonable risk diversification may set a limit of 6% while a short-term trader may set a limit of 2%.
(c) Setting Stop Levels
Be technically consistent when Setting Stop Levels. Use support and resistance, highs and lows or other technical levels for your limits.
(d) Adjusting Stop Levels
Using technical levels as in (c), Adjust Stops, over time, in the direction of the trend. This helps to protect your profits without fear of being stopped out before the trend is broken. A long-term investor/trader with reasonable risk diversification may find 6% an acceptable limit. A short-term trader may set a limit of only 2%.
Apart from adjusting stop levels upwards to below successive troughs, the alert trader should watch for chart patterns that may signal significant turning points. This doesn't mean that stops should be adjusted for every minor reversal signal but it is advisable to adjust stops for very strong signals, such as head and shoulders, when confirmed by unusually high volume. When in doubt, take profits by adjusting the stop for only part of your position.
EXAMPLE 1
Charles Schwab with   150-day exponential moving average. The trendlines   depict the stop levels as they are adjusted over time.
4. The trade is entered on October 30th, day [1]. As soon as the trade is confirmed, set the stop-loss at just below the Low of the signal day [A].
5. Price has formed a higher trough. Adjust the stop loss to just below the Low of [B].
6. A higher trough is formed. Move the stop loss to below the Low of [C].
Adjust the stop upwards to below each successive low of the secondary cycle. Each new stop level is indicated by the start (left) of a new trendline. It is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the short cycle and the secondary cycle - weekly charts can be used to eliminate minor fluctuations.
 
EXAMPLE 2
Charles Schwab with   150-day exponential moving average and   20-day volume moving average.
5. Entry day.
6. Unusually high volumes at the end of a strong up-trend lasting several months, alert us to the exhaustion gap in April '99. The following day is a key reversal [K] with a very wide range.
The combination is sufficiently extreme to justify moving the stops up to the High of the day prior to the gap. The position is stopped out when the gap is closed on the day following the key reversal [K].
7. Patterns are easy to detect with hindsight - it is difficult at the time to distinguish between extreme signals such as [K] and more regular signals such as [R].
8. If the [K] signal was used to take profits (say sell off 50% of the position) then the trader would continue to adjust stops upwards. Price breaks below the stop level at [X] and the remaining position is stopped out.
6. Exit Signals
Trade Indicators
Use a Trend Indicator to exit from the trend. Adjust the Indicator Time Frame to suit the cycle being traded.
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab with weekly price bars and   7-day and   150-day exponential moving averages.
6. Entry [L] on 30 October 1998 at $10.13.
7. Exit on Key Reversal at [K] on 15 April 1999 at $44.75.
8. Remaining position stopped out at [X] on 25 May 1999 at $33.13.
9. Price crosses below MA150 at [Y] on 14 June 1999 at $27.25.
10. MA7 crosses below MA150 at [Z] on 4 August 1999 at $24.50.
If no stops had been activated, the position would have been closed either:
• At [Y] when price fell below the 150-day moving average; or
• At [Z] when the 7-day MA fell below the 150-day MA,
depending on the exit strategy.
 
Trade Summary
Entry [L] October 30, 1998 $10.13
Key Reversal [K] April 15, 1999 $44.75
Stopped Out [X] May 25, 1999 $33.13
Price crosses below MA150 [Y] June 14, 1999 $27.25
MA7 crosses below MA150 [Z] August 4, 1999 $24.50
Returns vary between 440 per cent and 240 per cent.
Note how important it is to exit at the right time in addition to timing the entry : the correction retreated to below

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/entry_signals.php