Alan Farley 2015年12月31日
黃金期貨的價格在歷史性上升區間後期的2011年八月達到極致的1911美元。價格在那之後出現急劇下滑，此後是一個溫和但是持續性的下滑，絲毫沒有停止的迹象。從2014年開始反向反彈逐漸減小，因為黃金和其他大宗商品投資者開始平倉而潛在買家則在等待更好的機會。
黃金現在處於這個惡性下降趨勢的第五年中，已經慢慢接近1000美元。這個價格至關重要，有以下三個原因。
1.整數代表著該價格是投資者心裡的自然支撐水平很可能引起新的購買興趣。
2.1000是2008年開始到2009年中期這18個月的主要支持，最終引發大宗商品價格爆發式的增長。
3.這個水平基本符合2010和2011年上升趨勢的50%斐波納契回撤理論，這個點位把支撐隐藏在1000和1050之間。
跟蹤一個新的黃金上升趨勢
大整數可能標志著舊趨勢的結束和新的大趨勢的開始。雖然黃金短期可能不能回到2011年高點，從技術層面來說上升到1500以上還是有可能的，這為長期倉位提供可觀的回報。關鍵的問題是有一個能充分利用這一價格水平的進入策略。
投資者和市場時機把握者有三種方法在黃金價格達到1000時進行投資。每一種策略都帶有不同的回報和風險。事實上，這些策略在入場之前需要一個短暫的價格下降，這是最終新趨勢開始的標志。
策略1：直接買入
市場參與者可以等待價格跌到1000並且迅速買入。這個策略入場簡單但是風險巨大，特別是在價格迅速跌到這一水平是因為動量增加價格跌入更低水平的幾率時。如果價格以一個平緩的模式跌入這一水平時這個策略攜帶的風險則很小。
在這兩種情況下的風險控制都是通過降低交易規模和在975設置止損。價格在1000的第一個測試如果不在支撐水平而且不延長時間很難產生新的上升趨勢。因此，當價格在入場點附近來回擺動時需要耐心等待。
策略2：在繼續下跌的反彈後購買
在第二個策略中市場參與者在價格達到1000時不採取行動，等待新的低點的出現。這種技術故障通常引發一個下降趨勢中最後的低點，之後會出現一個恢複到争議水平之上的波動。看漲行情結束標志一個新的上升趨勢和買入點的出現。
這種情況控制風險的方法是觀察期貨和股票衍生品在975時的大量交易。與此同時，尋找金融媒體的大量利空消息。一旦出現這種情況，下一個價格上升到1000之上的反彈則意味主要趨勢逆轉的開始。
策略3：反彈後購買
最後一個策略的風險小但是潛在回報也小。等待價格達到1000並觸發反彈，也就是擊穿或者恢複到這數字之上的擊穿。無論發生上面何種情況，藍色趨勢線上面的下一個反彈將是主要恢複。交易趨勢線在2015年末穿過1200並且在接下來的幾個月將接近1100.
在這策略中控制風險是在進行長期投資之前允許黃金在藍色趨勢線之上建立平穩模式。新支撐的翻轉和成功測試將會增加可靠性，在這時增加持倉因為它預示著一個新的強勁上升的到來。在1500到1600之間設置利潤目標和退出策略。
總結
黃金價格在2015年結束時在1000美元的附近100點之内並將在2016年測試這個心理水平。這個價格行為將可能為細心的投資者和市場時機把握者提供建立大量的長期多倉盈利策略的機會。
3 Ways to Play Gold at $1000
By Alan Farley | December 31, 2015
Gold futures topped out at 1911 in August 2011, at the end of a historic uptrend. Price action since that time shows a steep decline, followed by a gentle but persistent downtrend that shows no signs of letting up. Countertrend rallies have gotten smaller since 2014 because gold bugs and other commodity bulls have given up and sold positions while potential buyers wait on the sidelines for a more favorable risk-reward tradeoff.
The yellow metal, now in the fifth year of its virulent downtrend, is slowly nearing 1000. This is a critical price level for three reasons.
1.Round numbers mark psychological lines-in-the-sand that identifies natural support levels likely to attract fresh buying interest.
2.1000 marked major resistance for 18 months between the start of 2008 and the middle of 2009, eventually yielding the historic breakout that set the commodity on fire.
3.The level roughly aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend between 2000 and 2011. This placement points to hidden support between 1000 and 1050.
Stalking A New Gold Uptrend
The big round number could mark the end of the downtrend and start of a significant uptrend. While gold may not return to the 2011 high in this decade, a rally above 1500 makes technical sense, offering high percentage gains for carefully timed long positions. The trick is to engage an entry strategy that utilizes this price level to its fullest advantage.
There are three ways that investors and market timers can play gold when it finally hits 1000. Each strategy carries unique reward and risk considerations that require active management to guard against a sustained breakdown, which is possible but not likely. In fact, one strategy requires a temporary breakdown before entry, with that event signaling a final capitalization.
Strategy 1: Buy The Level
Gold Futures 1996-2015
Market players can wait for gold to sell off into 1000 and buy it immediately. This strategy will offer the simplest entry with the greatest risk, especially if price descends quickly into that level because momentum increases odds for even lower prices before a major bounce or reversal. This approach carries less risk if gold drifts down to that level in a lazy pattern, printing lower than average volume on underlying derivatives.
Control risk in both scenarios by lowering position size and placing sell stops under 975 or the ETF equivalent. It’s unlikely the first test at 1000 will generate a new uptrend without prolonged basing and testing at that support level. As a result, the strategy will require patience while price action swings back and forth in the vicinity of the chosen entry.
Strategy 2: Buy the Failure of a Failure
Market players sit on their hands when gold tests 1000 in the second strategy, waiting for a breakdown that forces captivation of remaining bulls and new bottom fishers. This technical failure often triggers a final low in a downtrend, followed by a recovery wave that closes back above the contested level. That bullish close signals a new uptrend and long entry.
Control risk in this scenario by standing aside while watching for gold to trade as low as 975 on high volume in futures and equity derivatives. At the same time, look for a surge of bearish sentiment in the financial media, with headlines proclaiming the end of the yellow metal. Once these criteria are met, the next bounce that holds above 1000 marks a buy signal for a major trend reversal.
Strategy 3: Buy The Bounce
The last strategy offers lower risk but less reward potential. Wait for gold to hit 1000 for the first time and trigger a bounce, a breakdown, or a breakdown followed by a recovery above the magic number. Once any of these criteria are met, the next bounce above the blue trendline marks a buy signal for a major recovery. That trendline crossed through 1200 at the end of 2015 and will lie closer to 1100 in coming months.
Control risk in this strategy by allowing gold to build a basing pattern above the blue trendline before taking long exposure. A rollover and successful test at new support will add reliability to a position, calling for additional shares or contracts because it predicts a strong bull advance. 1500 to 1600 marks the profit target where exits should be taken aggressively.
The Bottom Line
Gold ended 2015 within 100-points of 1000 and should test that psychological level in 2016. This magnetic price behavior may set up a number of profitable long side strategies for observant investors and market timers.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/123115/3-ways-play-gold-1000.asp