金價與油價的比率

金價和石油的關係

金價和石油價格傾向於同時上升或者下降，因為以下兩點原因：
1、 從歷史上看，石油的買賣時由黃金支付的。即使今天，很大一部分的石油收入被用於投資黃金。隨著石油價格的上漲，在現有需求不變的情況下，更多的盈餘被投資於黃金等硬資產。
2、  油價的上漲會給通貨膨脹帶來壓力。這就使得黃金更受歡迎，因為黃金可以對沖通貨膨脹。

下圖始於1973年的贖罪戰爭（發生在以色列和其鄰國間），戰爭導致阿拉伯禁運石油，油價從3美元/桶飆升到12美元/桶。1978年伊朗革命、1980~1988年的兩伊戰爭、伊拉克1990年入侵科威特，隨之而來的海灣戰爭對黃金價格影響有限。
 
至2001年9月，黃金一直處於衰退期。2003年的伊拉克戰爭導致黃金強勁的上漲趨勢，接下來的伊朗核計劃的緊張局勢導致金價進一步上漲。

油價歷史

油價在1973年的贖罪日戰爭之後開始飆升，另外一個價格高峰出現在1978年伊朗革命之時，緊接著的兩伊戰爭導致油價進一步上升。沙特於1985年增加石油生產，1988年隨著兩伊戰爭的結束，石油產出進一步增加。1990年為恢復科威特主權的海灣戰爭導致了油價的短暫飆升。油價在接下來趨於穩定，1998年石油輸出國組織增加石油生產，但是由於經濟危機的影響，亞洲國家對石油的需求減少，油價暴跌。隨著石油的減產，價格逐漸升高。2001年的9.11事件和2003年的伊拉克戰爭導致人們對石油短缺的恐慌感增加，油價進一步飆升。
 
讀者需要註意的是，以上的價格未把通貨膨脹計算在內。如果按照今天的通貨膨脹水平，那麼1980年全球經濟危機期間，油價將會接近100美元每桐，金價會高於2000美金每盎司。

金價和油價的比率

消除上述圖表中通貨膨脹最簡單的方法是計算金價和油價的比率，即一盎司黃金能買多少桶油：金價和油價的比率=黃金的價格（每盎司）/油價（每桶）

金價和油價的比率可以說明我們鑒定超買超賣的入場機會。下圖顯示在過去的30年中， 8~10桶/盎司是金價和油價比率的一個非常強的阻力位。比率偶爾會高過20桶/盎司，但也只是持續了很短的時間。
 

黃金石油價格比率的信號

黃金和石油的價格比率可以說明你識別：:
• 黃金的買入機會 ：價格比率低於10桶/盎司
• 黃金的做空機會： 價格比率高於或等於20桶/盎司

舉例：

在2006~2008年的大部分時間段，黃金石油價格比率低於10的時候，顯示的是買入的信號。
 
2008年下半年原油價格的快速下降扭曲了價格比率，產生了錯誤的賣出信號。從2009年中期到2011年，該比率一直在12~18的小幅區間內震盪。
 

The Gold-Oil Ratio
The Link Between Gold and Oil
Gold and crude oil prices tend to rise and fall in sympathy with one another. There are two reasons for this:
1. Historically, oil purchases were paid for in gold. Even today, a sizable percentage of oil revenue ends up invested in gold. As oil prices rise, much of the increased revenue is invested as it is surplus to current needs -- and much of this surplus is invested in gold or other hard assets.
2. Rising oil prices place upward pressure on inflation. This enhances the appeal of gold because it acts as an inflation hedge.
Gold Price History
The chart below starts with the Yom Kippur war between Israel and its neighbors in 1973 -- and the resulting Arab oil embargo when crude oil rocketed from $3 to $12/barrel. This was followed by the 1978 revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war in 1980 which lasted until 1988. Iraq then invaded Kuwait in 1990, but the ensuing Gulf War had a limited effect on gold prices.
Gold went into a decline until awakened from its slumber on September 11, 2001. The invasion of Iraq followed in 2003, initiating a strong up-trend, and prices have lately spurred even higher as tensions escalate over Iran's nuclear program.
Oil Price History
Yom Kippur started a huge spike in oil prices with the Arab oil embargo in 1973. This was followed by another spike in 1978 at the time of the Iranian revolution, culminating with the subsequent invasion by Iraq and the start of the Iraq-Iran war. The Saudis substantially increased production in 1985 and the Iraq-Iran ceasefire further eased shortages in 1988. The invasion of Kuwait and ensuing Gulf war caused a brief spike in 1990, but a relatively stable period then followed -- until 1998 when OPEC increased production while demand was falling due to the Asian financial crisis, causing a slump in prices. Subsequent production cuts saw price recover, before September 11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq heightened fears of further shortages.
Readers need to bear in mind that the above prices are not adjusted for inflation. In today's dollars, oil traded at close to $100/barrel and gold above $2000 during the 1980 crisis.
The Gold-Oil Ratio
The easiest way to eliminate inflation from the above charts is to express the two prices as a ratio. How many barrels of oil you can buy with an ounce of gold:
Gold-Oil Ratio = Price of Gold (per oz.) / Price of Crude Oil (per barrel)
The gold-oil ratio helps us to identify overbought and oversold opportunities for gold. The chart below shows solid support between 8 and 10 barrels/ounce of gold over the last 30 years, with occasional spikes carrying above 20 but seldom holding for any length of time.
Gold-Oil Ratio Signals
The gold-oil ratio identifies:
• Buying opportunities (for gold) when the gold-oil ratio turns up at/below 10 barrels/ounce; and
• Selling opportunities when the gold-oil ratio turns down at/above 20 barrels/ounce.
EXAMPLES
The Gold-Oil Ratio displayed a buy signal, with values below 10, for most of 2006 to 2008.
A sharp drop in crude prices in late 2008 distorted the ratio, causing an incorrect sell signal. Since then, from mid-2009 to 2011, the ratio has oscillated in a narrow range betweeen 12 and 18.

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供，

本文來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php