退歐之後的英國

史上最貴的離婚是哪一場？問問英國人就知道了，英國議會計算出了退歐的最終成本。

如果你沒有仔細了解過，也許會認為，退歐有什麼難的？收拾東西離開辦公室，再找些人來打掃清理，把鑰匙交接了就可以了，不是嗎？

當然不是，退歐完全不是搬個家那樣簡單，這一切要歸功於第50號文件。

第50號文件是什麼？是所有歐盟成員國簽署的退歐條款。若想退出歐盟，該國必須向歐盟理事會立交正式申請並進行協商。退歐國還必須參加歐盟内部關於退歐流程的讨論。

表面上看起來很簡單，但實際操作起來卻是困難重重。英國的難處之一，最高法院通告了内部流程沒有咨詢國會的意見，因此推遲了歐盟的兩年退歐倒計時。經過激烈的争論，國會可能會在三月將決議轉化為法律條款。

佈魯塞爾的預期和大衆預期相差甚遠。在退歐公投之時，預計每週要向歐盟支付3.5億英鎊。某些英國人認為支付到退歐完成就可以了。

但佈魯塞爾的賬單不是那麼美好，英國在退歐之後的幾年内也要繼續支付。Alex Barker在歐盟改革中心的報告中指出，退歐的總費用大概在245億至728億歐元之間。賬單涉及三個方面，其一是歐盟各國政府批準的七年預算承諾，其二是2019年後的投資承諾，其三是無資金準備的養老金債務。

由於英國公衆和佈魯塞爾對支付金額預期存在巨大的差異，英國政府還有很大的協商空間。對於歐盟來說，英國的角色已經從合作夥伴轉變為外部國家，這會對協商的立場產生極大的影響。英國可能會同歐盟内的國家建立友好關系，從而緩解這種影響。英國已同歐盟展開了多次非正式會議，會議氣氛劍拔弩張。有些人建議第三方進行幹涉調節，已實現更有效的協商和交易。

未來的種種挑戰迫使Theresa May提前進行總統選舉。為了在同佈魯塞爾的協商中獲得最大的政治力量，她需要獲得國會的全力支持。雖然她所在的黨派目前占有17個席位，但是更多的席位會帶給她更大的自由來同歐盟協商以及制定計劃。

Britain After Brexit

 What’s it like to have the most expensive divorce in history? Ask the people of Britain, as Westminster finalises the cost of leaving the European Union.

Anyone that has not been watching closely the machinations in Europe will find it surprising that there is anything to discuss. Surely they just pack up their offices, hire some cleaners and painters and hand over the key before they move out, right?

Unfortunately no. Leaving Brexit is not at all like vacating an apartment, thanks to a little document called Article 50.

What is Article 50? Article 50 is the plan signed by all the EU states which outlines the mechanisms which allows a country to leave the EU. To leave the EU, the member country must formally notify the European council and negotiate its withdrawal. Its also requires the exiting nation to take part in EU internal discussions about the process of its departure.

Whilst it all seems simple, the reality is proving challenging and difficult at best. In Britain, a challenge to the supreme court heralded the first stage of internal processes to invoke article 50 without consulting parliament, delaying the start of the two year time clock for the EU negotiations. After a fierce fight, it is expected that Parliament will pass its decision into law in March.

Then the negotiations begin in earnest, with a significant gap between expectations held in Brussels and that of the British public. At the time of the referendum in Britain, the savings resulting from a Brexit was estimated at £350m per week. In some parts of Britain there is an expectation that all payments will stop when Britain exits.

However, the bill in Brussels paints a very different picture, expecting Britain to pay its dues for several years. Alex Barker, in a report from the Centre for European Reform, puts the exit figure of the disengagement bill at between €24.5bn and €72.8bn. The bill centres on three main aspects. The first relates to the 7 year budgetary commitment approved by all EU governments, including Britain. The second relates to investment commitments post 2019, whilst the third involves liabilities associated with the as yet unfunded pension scheme.

With the gulf between the British public’s perception of the EU payment commitments and that of Brussels, there is not a lot of wiggle room domestically for the British government to negotiate. For the EU, Britain’s bargaining position has shifted from partner to external nation, impacting relationships and their negotiation stance. To alleviate this somewhat, it is expected that Britain will work to improve ties with individual EU nations, hoping to create a favourable environment for negotiations and departure. The current desire by Brussels to finalise the bill before undertaking further trade discussions, against the wishes of the British position, also puts further pressure on an already emotional debate. It has been reported that informal meetings between the two sides has descended into acrimonious behavior. Some suggest a third party mediation will quell tensions somewhat, allowing a more effective negotiation and transition.

The challenges ahead have undoubtedly prompted Theresa May to call for an early election in June, the third general election in less than two years. In order for May to wield the most political power possible throughout her negotiations with Brussels, she is going to require the full support of her parliament. While her working majority currently stands at 17 seats, more seats will give her a freer hand in her negotiations as well as improve her ability to set the agenda at home.

With all the makings of a wonderful public battle, the great Brexit battle has already shown the potential to be the nastiest divorce in recent memory. With the division of the assets of a continent at stake, and many different competing interests and agendas, it is sure to be epic.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/britain-after-brexit/