特朗普為何轉變對耶倫態度？

美聯儲專家在週三表示，特朗普若想實現他的經濟目標過程，就需要耶倫的鴿派立場。

在華爾街日報的採訪中，特朗普表示了對耶倫的尊敬，但他也認為耶倫執掌美聯儲並不是廣受贊譽的。

特朗普在採訪中說道：“說實話，我確實很喜歡低利率政策。”

特朗普去年可不是這樣說的。他說：“我和耶倫沒有任何沖突，她的能力很強。但她屬於共和黨。等到她的任期結束，我就會換人。”

經濟學家認為，特朗普的稅務改革和基础設施支出會帶來極大的財政刺激。通貨膨脹還未出現，經濟快速增長的局面就已經開始了。

鷹派的政策可能會導致利率迅速增長。但是在過去的四年中，耶倫已經展現出她的柔和態度，任何決策都要三思而行。

波士頓Standish Mellon資產管理公司首席經濟學家萊因哈特認為：對於特朗普來說，耶倫是最安全的鴿派人選。

特朗普團隊和美聯儲之間的沖突之一便是缺乏“一個相對緩和的美聯儲”，而耶倫是最有可能實現這一目標的人。

萊因哈特說：“人們在某些環境下喜歡耶倫，她不是萬能的。”

Evercore ISI副主席古哈認為特朗普很難阻止耶倫連任。

特朗普需要做的就是避免向美聯儲表現出“絕對鷹派”的態度。

在上個月的市場觀察網採訪中，喬治華盛頓大學政治科學教授Sarah Binder說：“無論特朗普在大選中怎麼說，從本質上看，他是傾向於低利率的。”

萊因哈特認為耶倫連任的最大阻力來自於上議院的共和黨，這些人更希望美聯儲採用簡單的政策。

特朗普很難再找到一個既遵守規則又不屬於鷹派的人選了。

因為大多數保守政策條款都需要更鷹派的利率政策，這遠高於美聯儲當前的保證。

摩根大通首席經濟學家Jim Glassman認為，耶倫連任的連貫性對金融市場更有好處。無論怎樣，特朗普都扭轉了對耶倫的態度。

他說：“現在每一個候選人都要跟耶倫比一比鴿派的程度。”

古哈說：“一旦特朗普不再選任鷹派的美聯儲主席，債券市場的風險就會增加。”

Why did Trump flip flop on Yellen? She may be the dove he needs, analysts say

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is the dove that President Donald Trump needs to achieve his economic goals, central bank experts said Wednesday as they contemplated the apparent reversal in his stance.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said he had respect for Yellen and said she was “not toast” when her term helming the central bank ends next year.

“I do like a low-interest rate policy, I have to be honest with you,” Trump said in the interview.

That’s not what Trump said last year: “I have nothing against Janet Yellen whatsoever, she’s very capable person. But she’s not a Republican,” Trump said. “When her time is up I would most likely replace because of the fact it would be appropriate.”

Economists said Trump’s ambitious goals for tax reform and infrastructure spending could provide a strong does of fiscal stimulus. The economy is already growing about as fast as it can without sparking inflation.

So having a hawk on the Fed might lead to rapid rate hikes. But Yellen has shown over the past four years that she favors a gradual approach and might take a more wait-and-see attitude.

Yellen is “the safest dovish choice” for Trump, said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston and a former top Fed economist.

One way around a collision between the Fed and the Trump White House is to have “a relatively accommodative Federal Reserve,” and Yellen is probably “the most market friendly person to deliver that,” Reinhart said.

“People appreciate that Yellen’s dovishness is situational. She is not one to do anything to ultimately threaten the Fed’s pursuit of 2% inflation,” he said.

Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said it was still unlikely that Trump will end up offering Yellen a second term.

Trump will just avoid appointing “outright hawks” to the Fed board of governors, he said.

In an interview with MarketWatch last month, Sarah Binder, a professor of political science at George Washington University, said Trump was, at heart, a low-interest-rate guy, despite the comments in the campaign. Trump used just those words in the interview published Wednesday.

Reinhart said the biggest hurdle to a second term for Yellen would be the reaction from Senate Republicans, many of whom favor having the Fed follow a simple policy rule.

Guha said it might be hard for Trump to find a new Fed chief who favors following a rule but isn’t hawkish.

“This is because most conventional policy rules...already call for a materially more hawkish path for rates than the Fed currently indicates is likely to be warranted,” he said in a note to clients.

Jim Glassman, chief economist for commercial banking at J.P. Morgan Chase, said that there is a lot of respect for Yellen in financial markets and continuity would be “worth a lot.”

No matter what, Trump’s comments have completely changed the contest to be the next Fed chief, Reinhart said.

“Now every candidate is going to be compared with how dovish they will be relative to Yellen,” he said.

Guha said this raises the risk for the bond market that Trump’s nominations to the Fed may not be hawkish or independent enough.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-did-trump-flip-flop-on-yellen-she-may-be-the-dove-he-needs-analysts-say-2017-04-12