黃金會再度突破1300美元嗎？

週一黃金成交價為1295.56美元，是特朗普大選以來的最高水平。

美國十年期國債收益率在三月中旬達到最高點，隨後開始回落，在上週特朗普抱怨美元太過強勢後跌破2.2%。美國財政部長Mnuchin週一介入，試圖緩解美國國債收益率的下行壓力。他強調，從長遠來看，美元強勢是件好事。他評價特朗普的財政計劃“不切實際”。

Mnuchin的表態阻止了美元債券的下跌趨勢，但卻沒能恢複六月加息的預期。概率跌至50%。

市場似乎在慢慢接受2017年内多加息兩次。由此看來，九月加息的可能性高達73.3%。

這意味著美國國債的收益率可能會觸底反彈。問題是什麼時候會出現反彈，又會持續多久。

目前為止，疲軟的債券收益會增加黃金的持有，尤其要考慮地緣政治的風險規避因素。

由此而論，即使美國國債收益在未來幾週内有所回升，黃金買家也會轉向黃金，忽略不計息黃金風險成本的小幅上漲。

從技術層面來看

黃金從2016年7月的中長期阻力位跌至1278.90美元，如果能夠突破阻力位1315美元（76.4%的小幅回撤），將會遇到更具挑戰的阻力位1375美元（7月峰值）。

從短期來看，下行修正可以延伸至1272美元（三月至八月的23.6%小幅回撤）以及1275美元/1255美元（200天移動均線的38.2%大幅回撤），這是當前趨勢的重要支撐。

黃金期貨、ETF產品加入上漲行列

長期期貨倉位的淨頭寸上漲至五月以來的最高點，逼近特朗普上台前的水平。當前的交易量顯示，黃金市場仍有很大的投機空間。

全球最大的黃金ETF（交易所交易基金）產品 SPDR Gold Shares即將突破52週最高水平131.15美元。

Is Gold still on to challenge $1,300?

The following guest post is courtesy of Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Market Analyst at FCA regulated broker London Capital Group Holdings plc (LON:LCG).

Gold traded at $1295.56 on Monday, the highest level since Donald Trump’s election triggered the ‘reflation’ rally across the global asset markets and the US yields.

After reaching their highest by mid-March, the US 10-year yields started their descent and finally hit the 2.20% level after Donald Trump complained about the US dollar’s strength at a speech delivered last week. The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stepped in as soon as Monday, to cool off the downside pressures on the US yields, mentioning that the strong US dollar is a ‘good thing’ in the long-term, while mentioning that Trump’s fiscal plans could not be ‘realistic’.

Mnuchin’s comments gave a positive spin to the falling US yields, yet failed to revive the expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in June. Odds fell to 50%.

It appears that the markets are slowly settling for two additional Fed rate hikes in 2017, yet to happen marginally later in the year than previously thought. In this context, September is a rising option, with 73.3% probability.

This certainly means that the US yields are seeking a bottom, while a recovery should be on the cards. But the question is when and how fast the recovery would happen.

As of now, the softer US yields are expected to encourage a broader allocation in gold holdings, especially given the rising risk aversion due to global geopolitical concerns.

In this context, even if the US yields were to recover in the coming weeks, gold buyers could ignore a slight increase in the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold and return to the bullion.

From a technical point of view

Gold cleared 1278.90, the last critical medium-term resistance on July 2016 to December 2016 decline. The gate is open for a further rise to $1315 (minor 76.4% retracement), before considering a more challenging path toward $1375 (July peak).

In the short-run, the downside correction could extend to $1272 (minor 23.6% retracement in March-April rise) and $1257/1255 (major 38.2% retracement / 200-day moving average), which is the critical support to the current positive trend.

Gold futures, ETFs join the rise

Net long future positions advanced nearly to a five month high, just reaching the pre-Trump levels. The current volumes suggests that there is room for larger speculative positions in the gold markets.

The SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s biggest gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is on its way toward its 52-week high ($131.15).

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/ipek-ozkardeskaya/gold-still-challenge-1300/