特朗普大選獲勝 加息概率下降

唐納德·特朗普在總統大選中的意外獲勝在金融市場中激起了軒然大波，增加了經濟前景的不確定性，這是美聯儲深惡痛絕的。

大選的結果出人意料，投資者們都懷疑美聯儲能否在下個月如願加息。

特朗普競選成功加大了市場波動。標普500指數的隐含波動率急速上升。

Pantheon Macroeconomics首席經濟學家Ian Shepherdson表示：“耶倫的美聯儲痛恨不確定性和下跌的股價，他們會推遲計劃，暫時按兵不動。”

彭博社報道稱，由於特朗普當選，美聯儲十二月加息的概率已經降到50%以下。週二時加息的可能性高達82%。

CME的美聯儲觀察工具的跌幅沒有這麼大，僅僅是從71%跌至67%。

截至當天，股票距最高點相去甚遠，遠期美國債券下跌，十年期美國債券收益超過2%。

無論市場反應如何，分析家們認為十二月加息的概率已經降低了。Shepherdson認為十二月加息的概率不足三分之一。

他認為消費者信心和商業信心都因大選而減弱了，這可能會導致消費支出減少。

高頻經濟公司首席美國經濟學家Jim O’Sullivan表示：“如果美聯儲官員今天開會，他們是不會加息的。”

“但是五週之後還是有些可能的。”他說。

Trump victory sends Fed rate expectations plummeting

The shock victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election has roiled financial markets, creating new uncertainty about the economic outlook, which is anathema to the Federal Reserve.

The election result has raised doubts among investors that the central bank will follow through with its widely telegraphed interest-rate hike next month.

Trump’s victory increased volatility in the market. Implied volatility on the S&P 500SPX, +0.20%  , as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +2.50%  , shot up.

“The Yellen Fed hates uncertainty, and falling stock prices, and tends to react to both by not doing what it had previously planned to do,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Odds of a December Fed rate hike fell below 50% in the wake of Trump’s victory according to Bloomberg News, citing U.S. overnight indexed swaps. The odds were as high as 82% on Tuesday.

The CME’s FedWatch tool did not show such a steep drop, putting the odds of a December rate hike at 67%, down from over 71% prior to Election Day.

By the end of the day, stocks were in striking distance of all-time high. Long-dated U.S. Treasurys fell, propelling the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% to trade above 2%.

Despite the market reaction, analysts said the likelihood of a December rate hike had been reduced. Shepherdson said he puts the odds of a December rate hike at “no more than one in three.”

He said that consumer and business confidence will likely decline in the wake of the election, which could be reflected in falling spending.

Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said “if Fed officials were meeting today, they would not be raising rates.”

But he noted “a lot can happen in five weeks."

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-victory-creates-just-what-fed-abhors-uncertainty-2016-11-09