理解外匯市場基本分析原理

交易者接觸金融市場的方法主要有兩個：技術分析或基础分析。但有很多成功的交易者同時採用了兩種分析方法。

事實上，在傑克·施瓦格的畅銷經典《金融怪傑》中有兩名受訪交易者，艾德·塞科塔和吉姆·羅格。羅格堅信自己無法以技術交易員的身份生存。時至今日，他仍然沒有成為一個富有的技術人。塞科塔的故事卻是完全相反的。他在做基本分析師時苦苦掙紮，直到做了技術分析才逐漸穩定下來。

前文提到，成功的交易者會同時進行技術分析和基本分析。本文將分解外匯市場的基本分析原則。

基本分析的定義是，通過分析一系列經濟數據和金融數據來評估某個特定金融產品的內在價值。外匯市場中的金融產品指的便是貨幣。市場參與者不斷地分析新興國家的基本情況，以判斷該國貨幣的內在價值。在最基本的層面上應了解幾個關鍵的經濟指標。這些關鍵指標的波動會導致貨幣價值的上漲或下跌。

利率

這是最主要的長期貨幣價值驅動因素。大多數央行每月會公佈一次利率，市場參與者會密切關註利率的變化。央行控制利率從而對經濟體的貨幣供給進行調控。如果央行想要增加貨幣供給，就會降低利率，反之亦然。

國內生產總值 (GDP)

GDP是判斷一個國家經濟健康與否最重要的指標。各國央行每年都會對經濟前景進行預測，GDP決定了國家的增長速度。如果GDP低於市場預期，貨幣價值就會下跌，如果GDP超過市場預期，貨幣價值就會上升。

通貨膨脹

通貨膨脹會損害到貨幣的實際購買力，因此在大多數情況下，通貨膨脹是對經濟有害的。正常的年化通脹預期為2%-3%，如果通脹水平超過央行設定的上行目標，貨幣價值反而會因為突然的加息而增加。提高利率對通貨膨脹有抑制作用。

失業

在推動經濟增長的因素中，我們不得不談到人以及消費者需求，失業率會影響經濟增長。失業率增加會對經濟增長帶來極大的打擊，因此，當勞動力市場中的失業率增加時，央行會降低利率以增加貨幣的供給並刺激經濟增長。

消費需求

人是驅動經濟增長的主要原因，因此健康的消費者需求是經濟正常、健康運作的基础。當消費者對產品和服務有需求時，經濟會增長，反之同理。

即使你是一個技術交易者，了解這些基本分析的重要知識也是很有說明的。

Understanding the Basics of Fundamental Analysis in the Forex Market

Traders typically approach financial markets in one of two ways: either through technical analysis or fundamental analysis. The reality is that history is full of traders who have had very successful careers as traders that employed both of these types of analyses.

In fact, in Jack Schwager's best-selling classic, Market Wizards, two of the traders interviewed are Ed Seykota and Jim Rogers. Rogers is quite adamant in his statement that he believes it is impossible to make a living as a technical trader. He goes so far as to say he has never met a rich technician. Seykota actually shares the exact opposite story. According to Seykota's own interview, he was a struggling trader when he traded according to fundamental analysis. It was not until he became a technician that he started to make a living trading financial markets.

As stated, successful traders throughout history have employed both technical and fundamental analysis. In this article we are going to break down the basic principles of fundamental analysis in the forex market.

Fundamental Analysis is commonly defined as a method of evaluating a specific security in order to determine its intrinsic value by analyzing a host of economic and financial data. In the foreign-exchange market, a security would be a currency. Market participants are continually analyzing the emerging fundamental from a country in order to determine the intrinsic value of the country's currency. There are several key economic indicators that every trader should understand on a basic level. Fluctuations in the data of these key indicators will generally cause the value of a currency to rise and fall.

Interest Rates

These are the single greatest driver of currency value over the long-term. Most Central Banks announce interest rates each month, and these decisions are watched very scrupulously by market participants. Interest rates are manipulated by Central Banks in order to control the money supply in an economy. If a Central Bank wants to increase the money supply, it lowers interest rates, and if it wants to decrease money supply it raises interest rates.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is the most important indicator of economic health in a country. A country's Central Bank has expected growth outlooks each year that determine how fast a country should grow as measured by GDP. When GDP falls below market expectations, currency values tend to fall and when GDP beats market expectations, currency values tend to rise.

Inflation

Inflation destroys the real purchasing power of a currency, and, therefore, inflation is very bad for the economy in most circumstances. Each year a normal rate of inflation between 2-3% is expected, but if inflation begins moving beyond the upward targets set by the Central Bank, a currency value will actually rise due to expectation of an imminent rate hike. Higher interest rates tend to fight off inflation.

Unemployment

We will discuss consumer demand in a moment, but people are basically what drive economic growth; therefore, unemployment is the backbone of economic growth. When unemployment levels increase, it has a devastating effect on economic growth; consequently, when the labor market contracts and unemployment increases, interest rates are often cut in an attempt to increase the money supply in the economy and stimulate economic growth.

Consumer Demand

As stated in the previous point, people are what drive economic growth; as a result, healthy consumer demand is essential to the normal, healthy functioning of an economy. When consumers are demanding goods and services, the economy tends to move forward, but when consumers are not demanding goods and services, the economy falters.

Even if you are a technical trader, it can still be very helpful to understand these basic elements of fundamental analysis.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.actionforex.com/articles-library/forex-articles/understanding-the-basics-of-fundamental-analysis-in-the-forex-market-20101119127128/