如果市場為關鍵合約的定價是正確的，那美聯儲一定會在下個月加息。
依據聯邦基金期貨合約的表現，美聯儲100%會加息，實際上可能性高達100.2%。美聯儲會將利率從0.25%-0.5%提高到0.5%-0.75%。（額外的0.2%的概率表明美聯儲還有很小的可能進行大幅度加息。）
美聯儲主席耶倫在上週表示，可能會在“不久後”加息，聯邦基金期貨合約的交易量變隨之而動。
耶倫表示：“如果聯邦公開市場委員會在加息問題上拖延太久，那麼為了防止經濟過熱，可能必須突然地收緊貨幣政策。另外，聯邦基金利率在目前的水平保持得太久也會鼓勵過度冒險行為，最終破壞金融穩定。”
依照耶倫的說法，交易員們認為加息的幅度不會太大。
截至2017年9月，美聯儲加息到75個基本點至150個基本點之間的可能性為三分之一。換句話說，在明年的九個月中可能會加息一到兩次。
100% probability of a December hike, Fed funds futures contracts show
The Federal Reserve is definitely lifting interest rates next month — if the market has priced a key contract correctly.
According to the trading of federal funds futures contracts, there’s a 100% chance — actually, a 100.2% chance — that the Fed will lift interest rates to a range between a half-point and three-quarters of a point, up from the current 25 to 50 basis points range. (The extra 0.2% implies there’s a very small chance the Fed could be even more aggressive.)
The trading comes in the wake of a number of speeches and comments from Federal Reserve officials, notably Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who last week said the central bank may lift interest rates “relatively soon.”
“Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee’s longer-run policy goals. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability,” Yellen said.
That said, traders don’t expect an aggressive course of hiking.
By the end of September 2017, they see roughly a two-thirds chance the Fed funds rate will be between 75 basis points and 150 basis points. In other words, after December, there will only be one or two more hikes over the next nine months.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-probability-of-a-december-hike-fed-funds-futures-contracts-show-2016-11-22