費舍爾：美聯儲加息理由“十分充分”

美聯儲副主席斯坦利·費舍爾在週五表示了對逐步加息的支援。

費舍爾在智利央行舉辦的會議中表示：“加息的理由十分充分。”

他認為美聯儲距離2%的通脹以及充分就業的目標已經“相當接近”。

但是費舍爾並沒有給出具體的行動時間，他只是提醒公衆，未來充滿未知，貨幣政策總是計劃趕不上變化。

投資者們認為，美聯儲在下次會議上加息的可能性高達75%，而且在大選之後美股上漲，更為投資者們增添了信心。

副主席在演講中花費了大量的時間來解釋加息的任何“溢出”對外國經濟來說都是“可控的”。

他相信溢出是會轉移的，因為美國的利率正處於歷史最低水平，還有很大的緩慢上升空間。

費舍爾說：“美聯儲加息的速度可能會很慢，可能比美國貨幣緊縮時期的速度還要慢。”

副主席這樣說並不是因為盲目樂觀。

事情可能會超出預期，他說：“路上有些坎坷總是難免的。”

但是2013年那樣的“削減恐慌”是不太可能出現的，原因有很多，比如美國的經濟環境正在改善，應該減輕全球風險，外國央行能夠緩和緊縮政策的僵局，還有一些新興市場經濟體的基本面較三年前已有了顯著提高。

Fischer: Case for Fed interest-rate hikes ‘quite strong’

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Friday signaled his support for gradual interest-rate hikes.

“The case for removing accommodation gradually is quite strong,” Fischer said in a speech via videoconference to a symposium sponsored by Chile’s central bank.

The Fed was “reasonably close” to meeting its target of a stable 2% inflation rate and full employment, which justifies action, he said.

Fischer did not lay out the precise timing for any moves, and cautioned that “the future is uncertain and that monetary policy is not on a preset course.”

Investors see a greater than 75% chance of a Fed interest-rate hike at its meeting next month, and confidence in a move is growing as the stock market DJIA, +0.21% rose in the wake of the presidential election.

The Fed vice chairman spent the bulk of his speech discussing why he thought any “spillovers” from Fed rate increases would be “manageable” for foreign economies.

He concluded that these spillovers will be mitigated because U.S. interest rates are likely to inch higher and plateau at historic low levels.

“The upshot is that U.S. policy rates are likely to increase more slowly, and by a lower cumulative amount, than in past episodes of U.S. monetary tightening,” Fischer said.

The Fed vice chairman went out of his way not to sound Pollyannaish.

Things might well unfold differently than expected, he said, and “there will almost inevitably be some bumps in the road.”

But another “taper tantrum” like 2013 was unlikely, he said, for several reasons, including that the U.S. economic conditions are improving and that should lessen global risks, foreign central banks can mitigate undesirable tightening, and a number of emerging market economies have markedly improved fundamentals relative to three years ago.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fischer-case-for-fed-interest-rate-hikes-quite-strong-2016-11-11