美聯儲羅森格倫：十二月加息合理

波士頓聯儲主席羅森格倫週二表示，考慮到當前的通脹增長和近乎充分就業的市場，下月加息的預期還是“有道理的”。

“就業市場接近完全就業，通脹水平也接近美聯儲的目標，期貨市場十二月的緊縮概率提高也不足為怪，由於大選帶來的波動，概率在75%上下。”他說：“下個月沒有重大的負面消息，十二月市場緊縮的預測是合情合理的。”

羅森格倫推動利率上漲已經有一陣子了。

他對美聯儲九月維持利率不變的決定表示反對，他只在十月附議了大多數人的投票，因為“我認為美國聯邦公開市場委員的聲明與十二月的高概率緊縮預期是一致的，市場預期也是如此。”

羅森格倫在週二的演講中詳細地分析了就業市場。他指出，獲得職位的失業勞動力數量已經趨於平穩。勞動力的老齡化意味著勞動力的增長可能不夠“強勁”。

還有多位美聯儲官員在本週發表講話，美聯儲主席耶倫將在週四發佈講話。

Fed’s Rosengren: December rate hike expectations are ‘plausible’

Expectations of an interest-rate hike next month are “plausible” given rising inflation and a job market near full employment, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Tuesday.

“With the economy close to full employment and inflation nearing the Fed’s target, it was not surprising that the futures market’s probability of a tightening in December has been high—in the vicinity of 75%—with some volatility around the election,” he said. “Absent significant negative economic news over the next month, the market’s assessment of the likelihood of tightening in December seems plausible.”

Rosengren has been pushing for an interest-rate hike for some time.

He dissented in September from the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, and only voted with the majority in October because “I felt the changes in the FOMC statement were well aligned with the notion (and the market perception) of a high likelihood of tightening in December.”
 
Rosengren in his speech on Tuesday discussed the jobs market at great length. He pointed out that the number of people flowing into employment after being out of the labor force has leveled off. The aging of the workforce means growth in the labor force may not be “robust” going forward, Rosengren said.

There are a number of Federal Reserve officials speaking this week, with the highlight being Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-rosengren-december-rate-hike-expectations-are-plausible-2016-11-15