移動平均線

移動平均線將不同時段内的收盤價連接起來，使價格波動平滑化，從而客觀的顯示價格趨勢。移動平均線通常會結合中間價格 (median price) 、典型價格 (typical price)、加權收盤價（weighted closing）、高低開盤價（high, low or open prices）等指標使用。

移動平均線的時間週期越短，對新趨勢的識別度越靈敏，但也通常會發出錯誤交易信號。長週期的移動平均線相對可靠，但只能夠反映大趨勢。

移動平均線的參數可以是交易圖表週期的一半：如果交易的峰間週期的為30天，那麼就選擇15日均線；如果是20天，則選擇20日平均線。一些投資者也會在上述週期中選擇14日或9日均線，希望通過其敏感性預測市場走勢。另外一些人則喜歡使用斐波那契數列，比如週期為5日、8日、13日、21日等的移動平均線。

• 100 ~ 200 日 (20 ~ 40 週) 多為長期移動平均線計算期間；
• 20 ~ 65 日 ( 4 ~ 13週) 為中期移動平均線計算期間；
• 5 ~ 20 日移動平均線計算期間。

交易信號

當價格穿越移動均線時交易信號便產生：價格從移動均線的下部向上穿越時做多，價格下穿過移動均線時做空。移動平均線非常容易受到價格突變的影響，產生一系列錯誤的交易信號。下面列出了幾種方式能夠過濾掉這些價格上的突變。

• 兩條移動平均線：利用較快的一條代替收盤價；
• 三條移動平均線：利用第三條移動平均線來識別價格走勢；
• 複合移動平均線：利用六條快速和六條緩慢的移動平均線來排除價格波動，確定走勢；
• 肯特納通道：基於平均真實波幅原理，過濾價格波動；
• 最受歡迎的是MACD震蕩指標，利用長期與中短期移動平均線來計算兩者之間的差離情況。

移動平均線有各種類型，每種類型都有各自的特點。

• 簡單的移動平均線（SMA）是最容易建立，也最容易產生錯誤交易信號；
• 加權移動平均線很難建立，但是相對可靠；
• 指數移動平均線可以達到加權移動平均線的效果，比較容易建立；
• 平均運動指數懷爾德指標，類似於指數移動平均線，用戶需要考慮不同的權重。

Moving Average Indicator
Moving averages provide an objective measure of trend direction by smoothing price data. Normally calculated using closing prices, the moving average can also be used with median, typical , weighted closing, and high, low or open prices as well as other indicators.
Moving Average Time Frames
Shorter length moving averages are more sensitive and identify new trends earlier, but also give more false alarms. Longer moving averages are more reliable but less responsive, only picking up the big trends.
Use a moving average that is half the length of the cycle that you are tracking. If the peak-to-peak cycle length is roughly 30 days, then a 15 day moving average is appropriate. If 20 days, then a 10 day moving average is appropriate. Some traders, however, will use 14 and 9 day moving averages for the above cycles in the hope of generating signals slightly ahead of the market. Others favor the Fibonacci numbers of 5, 8, 13 and 21.
• 100 to 200 Day (20 to 40 Week) moving averages are popular for longer cycles;
• 20 to 65 Day ( 4 to 13 Week) moving averages are useful for intermediate cycles; and
• 5 to 20 Days for short cycles.
Trading Signals
The simplest moving average system generates signals when price crosses the moving average:
• Go long when price crosses to above the moving average from below.
• Go short when price crosses to below the moving average from above.
The system is prone to whipsaws in ranging markets, with price crossing back and forth across the moving average, generating a large number of false signals. For that reason, moving average systems normally employfilters to reduce whipsaws.
More sophisticated systems use more than one moving average.
• Two Moving Averages uses a faster moving average as a substitute for closing price.
• Three Moving Averages employs a the third moving average to identify when price is ranging.
• Multiple Moving Averages use a series of six fast moving averages and six slow moving averages to confirm each other.
• Keltner Channels use bands plotted at a multiple of average true range to filter moving average crossovers.
• The popular MACD ("Moving Average Convergence Divergence") indicator is a variation of the two moving average system, plotted as an oscillator which subtracts the slow moving average from the fast moving average.
Moving Average Types
There are several different types of moving averages, each with their own peculiarities.
• Simple moving averages are the easiest to construct, but also the most prone to distortion.
• Weighted moving averages are difficult to construct, but reliable.
• Exponential moving averages achieve the benefits of weighting combined with ease of construction.
• Wilder moving averages are used mainly in indicators developed by J. Welles Wilder. Essentially the same formula as exponential moving averages, they use different weightings — for which users need to make allowance.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/moving_average.php