Shobhit Set 2014年11月8日
價格走勢描述股票價格運動的特點。這個運動經常分析最近的價格變化。簡單來說，價格走勢是一個交易技術，允許交易員基於最近實際的價格運動解析市場做出交易決定，而不是單純的依賴技術指標。
因為忽略了基本面分析而關註最近和過去的價格運動，價格走勢交易策略依賴於技術分析工具。
使用什麼工具進行價格走勢交易？
因為價格走勢交易涉及最近和歷史數據以及價格運動，所有的技術分析工具都可以根據交易員的選擇和策略進行使用，例如圖表、趨勢線、價格幅度、高低波動和技術層面。
交易員觀察的工具和圖表可以是簡單的價格欄、價格幅度、突破、趨勢線或者是複雜的燭台圖、波動和價格的趨勢的組合等。
心理和行為的後續動作也在價格走勢交易中占很重要的地位。例如，無論發生什麼，一支股票在580左右徘徊，而交易員的心理位置是600，那麼他就會進行多倉操作。而其他交易員看法相反，一旦價格到達600，他們會進行空倉操作。
每個交易員對價格走勢都有不同的理解。而就技術分析來說，多個交易員可能產生類似的結果。
從本質上來說，價格走勢交易是一個系統交易實踐，受助於技術分析工具和歷史價格交易員在特定的環境中根據他們主觀、行為和心理狀態的做出自己的決定並進行交易。
誰使用價格走勢交易？
因為價格走勢是一個價格預測和投機買賣的方法，使用它的人是零售交易員、投機者、套利者和雇佣交易員的交易公司。它可以被廣泛應用到股票、債券、外匯、大宗商品和衍生品上。
使用價格走勢交易的步驟：
有經驗的交易員保持多個選項識別交易模式、進出水平、止損和相關觀察進行價格走勢交易。僅僅一個策略可能不會提供足夠多的交易機會。大多數情況包括一個兩步的過程。
1）確定環境：例如一個股票價格進入上升/下跌階段、區間交易、突破等。
2）在這個環境内，確定交易機會：例如一個股票正在上漲，它可能上漲或者回落。這完全是交易員的主觀選擇。
這有一些例子：
1）一只股票達到每個交易員預計的高點然後稍微回落。交易員可以認為它將形成一個雙高點繼續上升或者回落到平均值。
2）交易員基於低波動性和沒有突破的假設為特定股票設定高點和低點。如果股票價格在這個範圍内，交易員可以根據設定的高低點和支撐和阻力位進行交易，或者認為股票將進行突破。
3）當股票實現預定的突破，交易機會出現在突破繼續或者返回原來的水平。
可以看到，價格走勢交易和技術分析工具密切相關，但是最後由交易員自己做出決定，為其提供靈活的決定而不是嚴格的規則。
價格走勢交易的流行
價格走勢交易更適合中短期内的盈利交易，而不是長期投資。
大部份交易員相信市場是一個隨機模式，沒有明確的系統策略能夠一直有效。通過結合技術分析工具和最近的價格運動並根據交易員自己的理解確定交易機會，價格走勢交易在交易圈受到廣泛歡迎。
優點包括自定義交易策略為交易員提供靈活性、適用於多種資產類別、易於應用到任何交易軟件並且容易使用過去數據進行檢查。最重要的是，交易員可以根據感覺的變化決定他們的交易，而不是盲目的跟從規則。
總結
價格走勢交易上有許多理論和策略據說都能獲得高成功率，但是交易員應該警惕幸存者誤差，因為只有成功案例才會產生新聞。交易的確有獲得客觀利潤的機會。每個交易員必須根據需求明確理解、測試、決定和行動才能獲得最好的可能獲利機會。
An Introduction To Price Action Trading Strategies
By Shobhit Seth | Updated November 08, 2014
Price Action describes the characteristics of a security’s price movements. This movement is quite often analyzed with respect to price changes in the recent past. In simple terms, price action is a trading technique that allows a trader to read the market and make subjective trading decisions based on the recent and actual price movements, rather than relying solely on technical indicators.
Since it ignores the fundamental analysis factors and focuses more on recent and past price movement, the price action trading strategy is dependent on technical analysis tools.
What tools are used for price action trading?
Since price action trading relates to recent historical data and past price movements, all technical analysis tools like charts, trend lines, price bands, high and low swings, technical levels (of support, resistance and consolidation), etc. are taken into account as per the trader’s choice and strategy fit.
The tools and patterns observed by the trader can be simple price bars, price bands, break-outs, trend-lines, or complex combinations involving candlesticks, volatility, channels, etc.
Psychological and behavioral interpretations and subsequent actions, as decided by the trader, also make up an important aspect of price action trades. For e.g., no matter what happens, if a stock hovering at 580 crosses the personally-set psychological level of 600, then the trader may assume a further upward move to take a long position. Other traders may have an opposite view – once 600 is hit, he or she assumes a price reversal and hence takes a short position.
No two traders will interpret a certain price action in the same way, as each will have his or her own interpretation, defined rules and different behavioral understanding of it. On the other hand, a technical analysis scenario (like 15 DMA crossing over 50 DMA) will yield similar behavior and action (long position) from multiple traders.
In essence, price action trading is a systematic trading practice, aided by technical analysis tools and recent price history, where traders are free to take their own decisions within a given scenario to take trading positions, as per their subjective, behavioral and psychological state.
Who uses price action trading?
Since price action trading is an approach to price predictions and speculation, it is used by retail traders, speculators, arbitrageurs and even trading firms who employ traders. It can be used on a wide range of securities including equities, bonds, forex, commodities, derivatives, etc.
Steps used in price action trading:
Most experienced traders following price action trading keep multiple options for recognizing trading patterns, entry and exit levels, stop-losses and related observations. Having just one strategy on one (or multiple) stocks may not offer sufficient trading opportunities. Most scenarios involve a two-step process:
1)Identifying a scenario: Like a stock price getting into a bull/bear phase, channel range, breakout, etc.
2) Within the scenario, identifying trading opportunities: Like once a stock is in bull run, is it likely to (a) overshoot or (b) retreat. This is a completely subjective choice and can vary from one trader to the other, even given the same identical scenario.
Here are a few examples:
1) A stock reaches its high as per the trader’s view and then retreats to a slightly lower level (scenario met). The trader can then decide whether he or she thinks it will form a double top to go higher, or drop further following a mean reversion.
2) The trader sets a floor and ceiling for a particular stock price based on the assumption of low volatility and no breakouts. If the stock price lies in this range (scenario met), the trader can take positions assuming the set floor/ceiling acting as support/resistance levels, or take an alternate view that the stock will breakout in either direction.
3) A defined breakout scenario being met and then trading opportunity existing in terms of breakout continuation (going further in the same direction) or breakout pull-back (returning to the past level)
As can be seen, price action trading is closely assisted by technical analysis tools, but the final trading call is dependent on the individual trader, offering him or her flexibility instead of enforcing a strict set of rules to be followed.
The popularity of price action trading
Price action trading is better suited for short-to-medium term limited profit trades, instead of long term investments.
Most traders believe that the market follows a random pattern and there is no clear systematic way to define a strategy that will always work. By combining the technical analysis tools with the recent price history to identify trade opportunities based on the trader’s own interpretation, price action trading has a lot of support in the trading community.
Advantages include self-defined strategies offering flexibility to traders, applicability to multiple asset classes, easy use with any trading software, applications and trading portals and the possibility of easy backtesting of any identified strategy on past data. Most importantly, the traders feel in-charge, as the strategy allows them to decide on their actions, instead of blindly following a set of rules.
The Bottom Line
A lot of theories and strategies are available on price action trading claiming high success rates, but traders should be aware of survivorship bias, as only success stories make news. Trading does have the potential for making handsome profits. It is up to the individual trader to clearly understand, test, select, decide and act on what meets his requirements for the best possible profit opportunities.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/110714/introduction-price-action-trading-strategies.asp