Alan Farley 2016年2月26日
金融市場不斷在提供輕易獲利階段和對投資和交易賬戶產生不可預測損失的不利時間循環。市場參與者需要在不利時間等待良性條件到來的同時使用有技巧的判斷管理市場、保護原始資本和產生目標利潤。
波動軌迹不利時標準普爾波動性指數每週和每天的價格波動增加，流動性減少並且股票、貨幣、債券和大宗商品之間的相關性增加。不同市場之間的校準使市場參與者很容易混淆，因為它的影響比容易觀察的支撐和阻力水平和止損要大得多。
不利市場的應對
不利環境可以發生在上升或者下跌市場中，但是在下跌市場的破壞更大，因為大多數投資策略都有樂觀偏好。做空交易和對沖將會取得積極效果，但是隨著時間的推移往往會失敗，因為市場下跌比上漲快的多。
最有效的策略依賴於嚴格自律，降低交易的規模和頻率、保持資金水平直到有利的市場條件回歸。這說起來比做起來容易的多，因為在順利展開之前很難意識到，正如我們在2009年看到在三月低谷之後分析家預測會出現新低。
自律也需要控制做出不明智交易決定的情緒。市場隨著貪婪和恐懼的數量高低運動。恐懼情緒在不利市場大量增加，測試著在現實生活中很少檢測的個人素質。恐懼在這時可能是非常致命的，導致出現改變人生的選擇，可以消滅家庭財富。
保留資金
市場智慧告訴我們保留資金也是一種投資。不利的市場在機會出現並回到100%本金之後需要一個短期零交易方法處理風險。這符合流行的獲利趨勢跟隨策略。
交易者在保留資金時應該減少50%到70%的交易頻率，直到大規模的市場轉機出現。他們還需要處理漩渦中出現的風險，決定投資風險是否值得依賴度過艱難時期。這可能是個數百萬美元的決定，有些不利市場可能持續數週數月或者甚至數年。
這在不利環境影響市場的一個部分時尤為真實，例如大宗商品。許多投資者在2010到2014年間持有大量股票，之後發生了最惡劣的下跌中的集體賣空。更糟糕的是，許多人在集體下跌時買入更多的股票以求抄底。
這可能是改變生活的決定，沒有簡單的答案。許多時候，最好的行動就是接受失敗和損失，花錢買教訓。這有一個額外的心理收益，使投資者與讓他們高壓力夜不能寐的倉位告別。同時也解放了資金等待新的機會。
後退一大步
把你的註意力從日圖轉移到更長的時間框架上。不要聽取金融頻道的建議並放棄那些圖表，查看週和月表現。熊市、修正和其他不利階段時間往往能通過VIX和其他波動指數分析。這些在後退一大步和觀察大背景時更容易發現。
成為一個大獵物獵人。幾年來你一直想持有的股票通常在不利市場中可以在極低的價格購買，只要你有耐心並以緩慢的速度建立倉位。這些傳奇的交易並不多見，但是一旦出現將會能拯救你的生活，補充你耗盡的資金並重新建立投資信心。
掌握新策略
每個市場環境都能創造機會，不利市場出現時也沒什麼不同。它可以是一個學習做空、使用觸底反彈進入市場、期望以更低價格買入獲利的完美時機。市場轉換也能為資金退出熱門倉位並分配資金到那些在此期間跑贏大盤的有利可圖的市場集團指明道路。
觀察防禦類股票確定他們是否和大盤價格走勢相反。具體的說，公用事業、食品、煙草是否因為其避險作用吸引了大量資金？除了更少的週期性商業模式，這些股票在更小的平均範圍提供更高的股息，降低在波動時間止損立場的風險。
總結
不利市場需要有技巧的判斷減少風險並發現新的獲利機會。如果可能的話以建立100%的資金水平開始，然後小心的將資金分配到防禦股倉位。
Common Sense Strategies For Adverse Markets
By Alan Farley | February 26, 2016
Financial markets cycle continuously between benevolent periods that offer easy profits and tough times that trigger unexpected damage to investment and trading accounts. Market players need to make skillful adjustments in adverse periods to manage risk, protect seed capital and generate targeted profits while waiting for the return of benign conditions.
Volatility tracks adversity, with the rising S&P Volatility Index (VIX) reflecting broader daily and weekly price swings, diminished liquidity and the tighter correlation between equities, currencies, bonds, and commodities. The alignment between dissimilar markets confuses participants because it exerts a greater influence than easily observed support and resistance levels, easily triggering well-placed stop losses.
Dealing With Adverse Markets
Adverse conditions can occur in rising or falling markets, but falling markets do greater damage due to the bullish bias of most investment strategies. Short sale and hedging practices allow a proactive response but tend to fail over time because markets fall more quickly than they rise, with sideways chop targeting long and short positions for weeks or months at a time.
The most effective strategies rely on strict self-discipline that lowers the size and frequency of trade execution, keeping cash levels high until the return of favorable conditions. This is easier said than done because it’s hard to recognize the improvement until it’s well underway, as we saw in 2009 when analysts predicted new lows for nearly a year after the March bottom.
Discipline also needs to manage emotions that translate into unwise decision-making. Markets move higher and lower through the qualities of greed and fear. Fear rises significantly in adverse markets, testing personal qualities that rarely come into play in day to day living. The fear factor can be devastating at these times, contributing to life-changing choices that can wipe out family wealth.
Raise Cash
Market wisdom tells us that cash is a position too. Adverse markets demand a short-term zero-out trading approach that takes targeted exposure when opportunities show up and then returns to 100% cash as soon as a conservative profit target is reached. This contrasts with the popular trend following strategy of letting your profits run.
Traders should cut execution frequency by 50% to 75% while investors sit on their hands, waiting for large scale cyclical turns. These folks also have to manage exposure carried into the maelstrom, deciding if the risk is worth holding through tough times. This can be a million dollar decision, with some periods of adversity easing after a few weeks or months while others last for years.
This is especially true when adversity strikes a market segment, such as the commodity complex, while sparing the broad averages. Many investors built large exposure to energy stocks between 2010 and 2014, just before the group sold off in the worst downtrend in generations. Even worse, many took an additional risk while the group spiraled lower, trying to pick bottoms.
These can be life-changing decisions, with no easy answers. Many times, the best course of action just capitulates and takes the loss, going back into cash poorer but wiser. This has an added psychological benefit, allowing the humbled investor to say goodbye to positions that caused high-stress levels and sleepless nights. It also frees up capital for new opportunities.
Take A Giant Step Back
Shift the focus away from the daily grind focus your attention on longer time frames. Turn off the financial television and pull out spreadsheets and charts, examining weekly and monthly performance. Bear markets, corrections and other periods of adversity tend to follow similar paths that can be analyzed using VIX and other volatility indicators. These are more easily seen when taking a giant step back and looking at the big picture.
Become a big game hunter. Securities that you’ve wanted to own for years can often be bought at bargain basement prices in adverse markets, as long as you’re patient and willing to build positions at a very slow pace. These legendary trades come infrequently but can be life savers when they show up, filling depleted coffers while restoring confidence in investment decisions.
Master New Strategies
Each market environment creates its own set of opportunities, and it’s no different when adversity hits the ticker tape. It may be a perfect time to learn the art of short selling, using relief rallies to enter positions, in hopes of profiting from lower prices. Rotation also lights the way as funds exit hot plays and allocate capital to niche market groups that can outperform during these periods.
Look at defensive sectors to see if they’re countering broad market price action. Specifically, are utilities, food, and tobacco attracting buying interest due to their reputations as safe havens? In addition to less cyclical business models, these securities pay high dividends while grinding through smaller average ranges, lowering the risk of getting stopped out during volatile periods.
The Bottom Line
Adverse markets require skillful adjustments to reduce risk and find new profit opportunities. Start by building cash levels to 100%, if possible, and then carefully reallocating capital into defensive positions.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022616/common-sense-strategies-adverse-markets.asp